Investment Summary for the First Half of 2021
Beep—June is here! The 2021 progress bar has already reached 50%. This year, the global economy is rebounding, yet the lingering effects of the pandemic persist: a global "chip shortage," continued monetary easing in the United States, and record-high U.S. Treasury yields that are stoking inflation concerns. At the same time, industry giants are flocking into the automotive sector, and WSB-themed stocks have once again come into focus—events that signal a new turning point for global markets. Do you still vividly recall these major developments, and have you firmly seized the investment opportunities they present?
Now, let's have Hot Girl walk fellow investors through the top ten hot events of the first half of 2021!

Event 1: Global "Chip Shortage"
Cow Pen Influence Index:★★★★
Event Time:Since the second half of 2020
Event Introduction:Since the second half of 2020, a global "chip shortage" in the automotive supply chain has intensified and continues to spread, now affecting multiple industries. At the same time, with regard to chip types, the acute scarcity of high-end chips has squeezed capacity for mid- and low-end chips, leading to a widespread shortage of overall chip production capacity that is expected to persist at least through year-end. The global "chip crunch" continues, with the shortage continuing to ripple across sectors.

Fellow investor’s insightful views:
"Automakers in a Frenzy and the 'Chip Frenzy': The root cause lies in the early stages of the pandemic, when companies underestimated the speed of the market's rebound and consequently slashed their chip orders. By the second half of last year, when these firms tried to ramp up orders, they found themselves unable to secure sufficient supply, as chipmakers were prioritizing fulfillment of orders from smartphone giants."
Mobile phone manufacturers and internet giants are flocking to enter chipmaking: the barriers to entry in the chip industry are simply too high for most companies to overcome, and any meaningful improvement in chip supply will ultimately depend on how well the global semiconductor supply chain can be restored through greater collaboration. In the era of the digital economy, both chip giants that excel in hardware and internet giants renowned for their algorithms and software are seeking new opportunities.
More opinions from fellow investors:
Event 2: Industry Giants Are Rapidly Entering the Automotive Sector
Cow Pen Influence Index:★★★★★
Event Time:February 2021 to present
Event Overview:Cross-industry car manufacturing has become a new "trend" among industry giants. On February 2, Baidu teamed up with Geely to enter the car-making business; on March 30, Xiaomi officially announced its entry into car manufacturing, with Lei Jun personally leading the team; according to a report by LatePost on April 6, Didi has begun launching its car-making project; and on April 28, OPPO Group also started preparing for car manufacturing. In addition, companies such as Huawei, Apple, Evergrande, and 360 have also been rumored to be entering the car-making business. With this, the new wave of car manufacturers has entered the 2.0 era.

Fellow investor’s insightful views:
「Baidu's decision to partner with Geely is undoubtedly aimed at accelerating commercialization and implementing technological applications. However, this does not mean that Baidu intends to actually manufacture cars. In other words, Baidu's focus remains on empowering the software and ecosystem levels, and it is unlikely to get involved in the hardware aspect. As for "building cars across the entire industrial chain," that task should still be left to Geely.」
"1. The smartphone market is becoming saturated: in the long run, the smartphone business has already turned into a red ocean. 2. Seeking new growth drivers: bottlenecks in the existing business have ultimately prompted Xiaomi to make the decisive move to explore new business directions and enter the automotive manufacturing sector. 3. Policy support for new-energy vehicles: currently, the market penetration rate of new-energy vehicles is around 5%. If the target of 20% is to be achieved over the next five years, the annual compound growth rate must exceed 30%, and the resulting benefits are self-evident. 4. A steady influx of new players entering the automotive manufacturing space: Tencent, Baidu, Alibaba, and Huawei, among others, are all involved in the new-energy vehicle sector in various ways."
More opinions from fellow investors:
Event 3: Commodities Experience a "Roller-Coaster" Market Situation
Cow Pen Influence Index:★★★★
Event Time:February 2021 to present
Event Introduction:Following the Lunar New Year, both domestic and international bulk commodity futures markets have surged to new heights. Commodities have entered "cheat mode," with nonferrous metals, coal, and gold all soaring in tandem. Among major commodity futures contracts, nonferrous metals have led the recent rally, with the most actively traded Shanghai tin, Shanghai copper, and Shanghai nickel contracts all posting robust gains. In May, prices for international crude oil, iron ore, and nonferrous metals continued their upward momentum. On the morning of May 23, the National Development and Reform Commission and four other departments jointly held talks with key enterprises in the iron ore, steel, copper, and aluminum sectors—companies that wield significant market influence—and implemented measures to stabilize commodity prices, resulting in a partial pullback in some commodity prices.

Fellow investor’s insightful views:
"This year's broad-based price increases differ markedly from last year. Last year's surge was primarily driven by loose US dollar liquidity and supply disruptions caused by the pandemic, whereas this year's commodity price hikes are rooted in supply–demand mismatches. As a result, the upward trend is divergent: with demand gradually recovering, commodities that already operate at high capacity utilization and for which new capacity is difficult to bring online in the short term are likely to see more sustained price increases—for example, industrial metals such as copper and aluminum."
More opinions from fellow investors:
Event 4: U.S. Treasury Yields Hit New High
Cow Pen Influence Index:★★★★★
Event Time:February 2021 to present
Event Introduction:U.S. Treasury yields have been accelerating higher since February, as market anxiety over inflation has intensified. On February 25, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose by 14.43 basis points to 1.5199%. On March 18, the 10-year Treasury yield hit another record high, breaking above 1.7% and reaching its highest level since late January of last year; meanwhile, the yield on the 30-year Treasury note briefly climbed above 2.5%, marking its highest level since August 2019.

Fellow investor’s insightful views:
Analysts attribute the rise in U.S. Treasury yields primarily to heightened inflation expectations and the Federal Reserve's insufficient action to counter the increase in bond yields.
However, Federal Reserve officials do not believe inflation is excessively high. The market, by contrast, clearly lacks the Fed's composure. Rising interest rates are particularly unfavorable for tech stocks and other high-growth equities, as the tech sector relies on easy borrowing to fuel its rapid expansion. As market interest rates climb, valuations across the broader stock market are likely to decline as well.
More opinions from fellow investors:
Event 5: The Two Sessions in the First Year of the 14th Five-Year Plan
Cow Pen Influence Index:★★★★
Event Time:March 4 and 5, 2021
Event Introduction:The annual session of the Two Sessions kicks off: the Fourth Session of the 13th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and the Fourth Session of the 13th National People's Congress opened on March 4 and 5, respectively.This year marks the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan period, and this time...The Two Sessions are brimming with highlights and buzzwords. Among them, "carbon neutrality" and "carbon peaking" have undoubtedly taken center stage, and there is alsoTechnological innovation and self-reliance and controllability,Expansion of domestic demand, fertility policies, and food security have also sparked widespread debate.

Fellow investor’s insightful views:
We believe that the Two Sessions as a whole will be guided by the overarching principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, with a focus on implementing the eight key tasks for 2021 and the 12 initiatives outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan. Against the backdrop of a policy stance that avoids abrupt shifts, both monetary and fiscal policies are expected to normalize at a measured pace. Under the 'three new' framework—new stage of development, new development philosophy, and new development paradigm—and in the post-pandemic era, a major transformation in economic growth and development is poised to usher in a new chapter.
More opinions from fellow investors:
Event 6: President Biden Signs $1.9 Trillion Stimulus Bill
Cow Pen Influence Index:★★★★★
Event Time:March 11, 2021
Event Introduction:On January 14, U.S. President Joe Biden unveiled a $1.9 trillion economic stimulus plan. In February and March, the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate respectively passed the $1.9 trillion stimulus bill.On March 11, U.S. President Joe Biden signed the $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief bill, officially enacting it into law.

Fellow investor’s insightful views:
"The U.S. government's previous massive fiscal spending did boost Americans' savings, but due to uneven distribution, it failed to deliver a significant boost to overall consumer spending. A new round of economic stimulus involving another round of direct cash payments may likewise contribute little to the ensuing economic recovery."
There are two main reasons for this conclusion. First, money held in bank accounts is more likely to be spent than book gains on illiquid assets such as residential housing and real estate; second, compared with lower-income individuals, those with the highest incomes are less likely to spend a one-time windfall.
More opinions from fellow investors:
Event 7: Internet Giants Face Antitrust Scandals
Cow Pen Influence Index:★★★★★
Event Time:April 2021 to present
Event Introduction:Antitrust regulation in the internet sector has been steadily intensifying. Since December 2020, the State Administration for Market Regulation has announced 24 antitrust enforcement cases in the internet sector. Among them, on April 10, Alibaba was fined RMB 18.228 billion for abusing its dominant market position and engaging in "choose one" monopolistic practices in the online retail platform services market in China; Meituan also received a notice from the State Administration for Market Regulation on April 26, stating that it has been placed under investigation for suspected monopolistic behavior.

Fellow investor’s insightful views:
As industry concentration continues to rise, niche segments of the internet are increasingly evolving into oligopolistic markets. In this context, antitrust measures have emerged and are set to become the new normal going forward, marking the end of the era when the internet sector could expand unchecked.
At the same time, given that internet traffic growth has hit a ceiling and the platform-based economy is nearing its end, the next frontier for development may lie in brands and content. Of course, achieving significant scale effects will be challenging, and it seems unlikely that we can recreate a behemoth on the scale of the 'Alibaba Empire.'
The 'choose one of two' requirement effectively infringes upon merchants' freedom to compete. It is the merchants' own right to decide whether to join a platform, and moreover, the relationship between platforms and merchants is one of cooperation, with each side benefiting from the arrangement. At the same time, by joining multiple platforms, merchants have more opportunities to showcase their products and increase their visibility, thereby mitigating a wider range of risks.
If the platform imposes a 'choose one of two' policy, it simultaneously harms other platforms and merchants in the same industry, preventing high-quality merchants from joining the platform. As a result, the market will become fragmented into isolated segments, each operating independently. The industry will lack healthy competition and be trapped in an endless cycle of destructive rivalry.
More opinions from fellow investors:
Event 8: Tightening Regulation in the Online Education Sector
Cow Pen Influence Index:★★★★★
Event Time:Since May 2021
Event Introduction:Since the onset of the pandemic, the online education sector has expanded rapidly, giving rise to a host of irregularities. To promote the healthy development of the industry, a series of relevant policies have been introduced. On May 14, new regulations were issued to oversee after-school tutoring; on May 21, a meeting of the Central Commission for Comprehensive Deepening Reform underscored the need for comprehensive and standardized management of off-campus training institutions.The introduction of a series of policies and regulations has slammed the brakes on the online education industry, which had been charging ahead with full force, prompting institutions to undertake rectification measures—some proactively, others under pressure.

Fellow investor’s insightful views:
Behind the mounting乱象 in the online education industry, two major factors are at play.I. Competition Has Reached a Frenzied Level, with Massive Industry Funding Fueling DisorderProduct homogenization in the online education industry is becoming increasingly severe, leaving these leading online education companies with no choice but to ramp up advertising and marketing efforts to acquire new customers.II. Under the pressure of academic advancement, market demand remains robust.On the one hand, China's education market is vast, yet online education penetration stood at only 33% in 2020, suggesting significant growth potential ahead. On the other hand, the pressure on children to advance academically has fueled parental anxiety, which in turn serves as the "spark" for the very existence and intense competition among online education providers.
More opinions from fellow investors:
Event 9: The Three-Child Policy Is Introduced
Cow Pen Influence Index:★★★★★
Event Time:May 31, 2021
Event Introduction:On May 31, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting, at which it was pointed out that further optimizing the birth policy and implementing the policy allowing couples to have three children, together with supporting measures, will help improve China's demographic structure, implement the national strategy for proactively addressing population aging, and maintain China's advantage in human resource endowment.

Fellow investor’s insightful views:
"The introduction of the three-child policy has sparked a significant boom in the stock market. From a market perspective, stocks related to the three-child policy have surged across the board over the past two days. In addition, assisted reproductive technology is arguably one of the sectors most directly impacted by the three-child policy."
Analysts at CITIC Securities believe that a key difference between the relaxation of the three-child policy and the two-child policy is that, by the time most families decide to have a third child, both parents are typically older, with diminished reproductive capacity. Consequently, the likelihood of seeking assisted reproductive services for a third child is higher than for the first or second child. As a result, companies whose core business is in vitro fertilization stand to benefit from this round of policy-driven tailwinds. In addition to these favorable policy measures, the relatively low penetration rate of assisted reproductive services in China and rising consumer spending levels are also critical drivers of market expansion in this sector.
More fellow investor opinions:
Event 10: A Short Squeeze Frenzy Unfolds on Wall Street, WSB-Related Stocks Back in the Spotlight
Cow Pen Influence Index:★★★★★
Event Time:From May 28, 2021 to the present
Event Introduction:Since late May, a short squeeze has been unfolding on Wall Street. On May 28, driven by increased market liquidity,WSB concept stocks are once again experiencing a frenzied rally. On June 2, the WSB rally continued, with AMC Entertainment triggering a trading halt after surging more than 90%. On June 3, WSB concept stocks suffered their first setback, plunging sharply in pre-market trading. On June 8, WSB concept stocks collectively surged under the collective buying by retail investors. On June 9, the WSB concept entered its 2.0 era, with new favorites such as CLOV and WISH emerging one after another. To this day, the stage for the WSB concept has yet to close.

Fellow investor’s insightful views:
「First, the rise of retail investors in the mobile-internet era has boosted their relative weight in the market. Second, pandemic-induced stay-at-home orders and government subsidies have provided retail investors with ample time and resources. Finally, highly speculative young retail investors—who are often hostile to the status quo—have rallied on forums like WallStreetBets and social-media platforms, leveraging their abundant time, energy, and capital to coalesce and stir up one wave after another of market turbulence.」
More opinions from fellow investors:
#CLOV has experienced significant recent volatility—amidst bullish and bearish forces, what's your outlook for the future?
Note: The selection of the above trending events is based on the number of views for related community content, with the ranking determined by the chronological order of the events. The selection of opinion pieces is based on user engagement and does not reflect the views or positions of any platform.
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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