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OpenAI delays IPO; is Anthropic still aiming for a $2 trillion valuation?
牛牛課堂
joined discussion · Aug 25 17:00 ·

Racing toward the largest IPO in history! Anthropic's listing countdown: Which companies have already secured their positions behind the scenes?

The next mega-IPO in the AI capital market may already be counting down.
On June 1, Anthropic confidentially submitted a draft Form S-1 registration statement to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), officially entering the IPO process. The company is now transitioning from a confidential filing to a public submission, with the prospectus potentially being released as early as late August, aiming for a listing in the fall of this year.
If the listing proceeds smoothly, Anthropic could not only become one of the largest tech IPOs in history but also provide the first public market valuation anchor for yet-to-be-listed AI model companies such as OpenAI and xAI.
Anthropic's valuation doubled in six months, rising from $380 billion to $965 billion.
Anthropic's strongest leverage in its rush to go public stems from its rapidly growing revenue and valuation.
This May, the company completed a $65 billion Series H financing round, bringing its post-money valuation to $965 billion—more than double the $380 billion recorded in February—making it one of the highest-valued private AI companies globally.
Its commercialization speed is equally impressive. Anthropic's annualized revenue run rate has increased from approximately $9 billion by the end of 2025 to over $65 billion by the end of July this year.The company projects that its revenue could reach $190 billion to $200 billion by 2028.
The next mega-IPO in the AI capital market may already be in its final countdown. On June 1, Anthropic confidentially submitted a draft Form S-1 registration statement to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), officially entering the IPO process. The company is now transitioning from confidential filing to public submission, with the prospectus potentially released as early as late August, aiming for a listing this fall. Once successfully listed, Anthropic could not only become one of the largest tech IPOs in history but also provide the first public market valuation anchor for unlisted AI model companies such as OpenAI and xAI. Anthropic's valuation doubled in six months, rising from $380 billion to $965 billion. Anthropic's strongest backing for its IPO push comes from its rapidly growing revenue and valuation. This May, the company completed a $65 billion Series H financing round, reaching a post-money valuation of $965 billion—more than double the $380 billion valuation in February—making it one of the highest-valued private AI companies globally. Its commercialization speed is equally impressive. Anthropic's annualized revenue run rate has increased from approximately $9 billion by the end of 2025 to over $65 billion by the end of July this year.The company expects its revenue to reach between $190 billion and $200 billion by 2028. In preparation for its IPO, Anthropic is also arranging a revolving credit facility that could exceed...
In preparation for the IPO, Anthropic is also arranging a revolving credit facility that could exceed $10 billion. Several major banks are vying to participate, hoping to secure underwriting seats for the IPO.
However, the impact of Anthropic's IPO extends far beyond simply adding another new AI stock to the market.Behind the scenes, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, NVIDIA, AMD, and the world's top three memory chip manufacturers have already formed a capital network spanning equity stakes, cloud computing power, AI chips, and enterprise software. Once Anthropic goes public, the "hidden assets" of these companies will undergo a concentrated revaluation.
The Capital Landscape Behind Anthropic: Which Publicly Listed Companies Have Invested?
The roster of publicly listed companies behind Anthropic nearly covers the entire AI industry chain, with major investors including $Amazon (AMZN.US)$$Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ among others. These companies are often its largest providers of computing power. The Series H funding round also saw the entry of numerous institutional investors and major memory manufacturers, as detailed below:
The next mega-IPO in the AI capital market may already be in its final countdown. On June 1, Anthropic confidentially submitted a draft Form S-1 registration statement to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), officially entering the IPO process. The company is now transitioning from confidential filing to public submission, with the prospectus potentially released as early as late August, aiming for a listing this fall. Once successfully listed, Anthropic could not only become one of the largest tech IPOs in history but also provide the first public market valuation anchor for unlisted AI model companies such as OpenAI and xAI. Anthropic's valuation doubled in six months, rising from $380 billion to $965 billion. Anthropic's strongest backing for its IPO push comes from its rapidly growing revenue and valuation. This May, the company completed a $65 billion Series H financing round, reaching a post-money valuation of $965 billion—more than double the $380 billion valuation in February—making it one of the highest-valued private AI companies globally. Its commercialization speed is equally impressive. Anthropic's annualized revenue run rate has increased from approximately $9 billion by the end of 2025 to over $65 billion by the end of July this year.The company expects its revenue to reach between $190 billion and $200 billion by 2028. In preparation for its IPO, Anthropic is also arranging a revolving credit facility that could exceed...
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Amazon: Equity stake valued at approximately $190.4 billion
$Amazon (AMZN.US)$ Amazon is likely the most direct beneficiary of Anthropic's IPO. As of the end of June, the total value of its non-voting preferred shares and convertible notes held in Anthropic was approximately $190.4 billion, with related gains of $53.4 billion recorded in the second quarter. However, this remains book value rather than realized gains. Beyond equity appreciation, Amazon also benefits from Anthropic's procurement of AWS services and Trainium chips, creating a triple-benefit logic of "equity + cloud + proprietary chips."
Google: Equity stake value may exceed $135 billion
$Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ Google is also a significant shareholder in Anthropic, estimated to hold about 14% of the company. Based on a valuation of $965 billion, this stake is worth approximately $135.1 billion. Google similarly enjoys a dual-benefit logic of "equity + computing power." Anthropic is heavily procuring Google Cloud and TPU computing resources, with the latest collaboration involving several gigawatts (GW) of next-generation AI computing capacity.
NVIDIA, Microsoft, and AMD: Betting on Computing Power Orders
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ and $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ They have separately committed to maximum investments of $10 billion, $5 billion, and $5 billion, respectively. However, these figures represent the upper limits of investment and do not imply that the full amounts have been deployed. The greater benefit for all three lies in commercial partnerships: Anthropic has committed to purchasing approximately $30 billion worth of Azure computing power and plans to deploy up to 2 GW of AMD GPUs; meanwhile, NVIDIA further consolidates its position as a leading supplier of AI chips and systems.
The Three Memory Giants: Positioning Early for HBM Demand
$Micron Technology (MU.US)$$SK hynix (SKHY.US)$ and $Samsung Electronics (005930.KR)$ All participated in Anthropic's financing, though specific investment amounts were not disclosed. Their bigger opportunity stems from orders for HBM, DRAM, and SSDs—as the scale of Claude's training and inference expands, so does the demand for high-performance storage.
Salesforce, Zoom, and SK Telecom: Higher Stock Price Elasticity
$Salesforce (CRM.US)$ Equity valuation approaches $5 billion; $Zoom Communications (ZM.US)$ An early investment of approximately $51 million saw the stake's value rise to around $1.27 billion at one point; $SK Telecom (SKM.US)$ The stake is estimated at approximately 0.3%, implying a value close to $2.9 billion based on the latest valuation. Due to these companies' smaller market capitalizations, their Anthropic holdings represent a higher proportion of their own valuations, meaning the stock price elasticity driven by an IPO could be more pronounced than that of Amazon and Google.
Additionally, $Cisco (CSCO.US)$and $Blackstone (BX.US)$etc., are also Anthropic investors.
What should we focus on in the prospectus?
Once Anthropic publicly files its prospectus, market attention will shift from "how high is the valuation" to "whether this valuation can be supported by performance."
Among these, four key metrics are most critical: First, the methodology behind the $65 billion annualized revenue run rate and the actual recognized revenue. Second, the company's gross margin, cash burn rate, and timeline to profitability. Third, the extent to which long-term compute purchase commitments with partners like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft will pressure future cash flows. Fourth, how the founder's super-voting rights, the Long-Term Benefit Trust, and other special governance arrangements will impact the interests of common shareholders.
Anthropic's IPO appears to be an AI model company entering the public markets, but in reality, it represents a concentrated pricing event for the entire AI industry chain.
If IPO valuations continue to rise, Amazon and Google may see the largest paper gains; SK Telecom, Zoom, and Salesforce could exhibit greater valuation elasticity; while NVIDIA, AMD, Microsoft, and the three major memory chip giants are expected to benefit continuously from compute and chip orders.
The real focus should not just be on Anthropic's post-IPO valuation, but on how the market will rediscover the vast landscape of equity, cloud, and chip interests behind this AI giant.
With Anthropic's IPO imminent, fellow investors can review our previous articles to map out its underlying equity and partnership structure in advance. Once the official prospectus is released, we will immediately follow up with analysis on its valuation, financial data, and potential investment opportunities.
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Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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