BTC surpasses $75,000! Has the upward channel been fully opened?

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Crypto Weekly Review | Crypto Legislation Delayed, BTC Drops Below $90,000; Hong Kong Stablecoin Licenses Expected Later This Year, US Treasury to Include Seized BTC in National Strategic Reserves; ARK: BTC Price Could Reach $760,000 by 2030

This week, the overall cryptocurrency market declined. $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ Bitcoin retreated from near $95,000 to around $89,000, with a weekly drop of over 5%; $Ethereum (ETH.CC)$It dropped from around $3,300 to near $2,900, with a weekly decline of over 11%.

As of the time of writing, the Fear & Greed Index is at 34, indicating a market sentiment of fear.

Hot events this week

US Senate Banking Committee prioritizes housing issues, crypto legislation expected to be delayed until February or March

According to Bloomberg, driven by Trump administration policies promoting "affordable housing," the US Senate Banking Committee will prioritize housing-related legislation. The crypto market structure bill, originally expected to be reviewed soon, will be delayed again, potentially until late February or March. Despite the Trump administration’s public support for the crypto industry, housing costs remain a key factor in US inflation and election dynamics. Meanwhile, the agriculture committee version of the crypto bill was released on Wednesday and is scheduled for review on January 27, but Democratic Senator Cory Booker did not endorse it, indicating potential challenges in legislative consolidation ahead.

Trump: Hopes to sign cryptocurrency bill soon

US President Trump stated at the Davos Forum that he hopes to sign the cryptocurrency bill (i.e., the Crypto Market Structure Bill) as soon as possible.

The chairman of the US CFTC announced the launch of the 'Future Proof' initiative to upgrade the agency’s approach to cryptocurrency regulation

American goodsFutures tradingChairman Michael Selig announced the launch of the 'Future Proof' initiative,aiming to comprehensively upgrade the agency's regulatory approach to digital assets.Within his first month in office, Selig stated that the CFTC needs to 'upgrade' and plans to conduct an extensive review of its rules, aiming for the 'minimum effective dose of regulation.' He noted that regulations designed decades ago for agricultural futures contracts still apply to traditional markets but do not cover emerging products or trading venues. The CFTC must upgrade its methods to unlock innovation.

Despite the legislative process being stalled last week due to disagreements over stablecoin yield treatment, Selig stated that the CFTC is ready to regulate the crypto industry. He noted that if Congress passes legislation to make the US a crypto hub, the CFTC will assume a series of new responsibilities. This initiative also appears to cover prediction markets. Selig stated that as new asset classes emerge and the role of the CFTC evolves, the guidelines developed should not only suit the products but also serve tailored regulatory purposes. He revealed that the agency plans to announce more 'policy changes' in the coming days.

Hong Kong Securities and Futures Professional Association: Hong Kong has completed the initial virtual asset regulatory infrastructure, next focus should shift to commercial application implementation

The Hong Kong government plans to announce the 2026/2027 Budget on February 25, with a focus on areas such as virtual assets and investor protection. The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Professional Association stated,Hong Kong has completed the initial regulatory infrastructure in the field of virtual assets. The next focus should be shifting towards the commercial application of these technologies.

By enhancing liquidity in the secondary market for Real World Assets (RWA), expediting product approvals, introducing international liquidity, and strengthening practitioner training, Hong Kong will be upgraded from a market with clear regulations to a global virtual asset hub characterized by ample liquidity and widespread adoption, aligning with the financial openness and digital economy strategies outlined in China's 15th Five-Year Plan.

Paul Chan: Stablecoin licenses expected to be issued later this year, adopting a proactive and prudent approach to developing digital assets

According to the Hong Kong Economic Times, Hong Kong's Financial Secretary Paul Chan continued his participation in the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland on January 20 local time. Chan stated that finance and technology can mutually reinforce each other. Taking digital assets as an example, this financial innovation not only enhances transparency, efficiency, inclusiveness, and risk management in financial services but also directs capital more effectively into the real economy.

Chan pointed out that Hong Kong, as an international financial center, adopts a proactive yet prudent approach to developing digital assets. Guided by the principle of 'same activity, same risk, same regulation,' it promotes responsible and sustainable market development.Since 2023, Hong Kong has issued licenses to 11 virtual asset trading platforms and is expected to issue stablecoin licenses later this year. Additionally, the Special Administrative Region government is leading by example in promoting tokenization, including issuing three batches of tokenized green bonds totaling approximately 2.1 billion US dollars.A regulatory sandbox has also been launched to encourage innovative applications.

US Treasury formally incorporates Bitcoin holdings into national strategic reserves

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced during the Davos World Economic Forum that the US government will cease selling confiscated digital assets andwill transfer all Bitcoin currently held by the Department of Justice and the Treasury into the 'US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.'Under this policy,Bitcoin primarily obtained through criminal and civil asset forfeiture will be permanently retained and no longer auctioned regularly by the US Marshals Service.

Bessent stated that this move aims to 'halt the drain on sovereign digital wealth' and considers the over 200,000 Bitcoins currently held by the US as a long-term value reserve on the national balance sheet to hedge against fluctuations in traditional currencies. Bessent also emphasized that the strategic Bitcoin reserve will expand in a 'budget-neutral' manner through law enforcement confiscations, without using taxpayer funds for open market purchases. The related assets will be custodied by the Federal Reserve and cannot be sold or transferred unless an extreme national economic emergency occurs.

Analysts believe that this decision marks the first time the US has elevated Bitcoin to a strategic asset status akin to gold at the policy level, potentially weakening long-standing 'government sell pressure' and setting an example for digital asset policies among major global economies.

South Korea plans to lift the 'one exchange-one bank' restriction to promote legalization of crypto derivatives and institutional account trading

According to The Korea Herald, South Korean financial authorities are advancing reforms to the digital asset regulatory framework, planning to abolish the '1 exchange – 1 bank' binding restriction, allowing the issuance of crypto derivatives and institutional accounts to participate in trading, thereby breaking the current market monopoly structure and enhancing liquidity.

Regulators believe that although the restriction is not legally mandatory, it has long existed due to anti-money laundering requirements, limiting exchange competition and user choice. Subsequent policies will be incorporated into the second phase of the legislative process of the 'Digital Asset **,' and bipartisan consensus has been reached in Congress regarding partial deregulation.

Vietnam has begun piloting an official licensing system for crypto asset trading platforms

According to Cryptonews, Vietnam's Ministry of Finance has issued a resolution this week,launching a pilot program for the official licensing system of cryptocurrency trading platforms, aiming to bring the industry from a long-term legal gray area into a regulatory framework.Under the resolution, the National Securities Commission will be responsible for issuing, adjusting, and revoking operational licenses for crypto asset trading platforms, and detailed application guidelines have been published. The system requires applicant companies to be Vietnamese domestic firms with a minimum paid-in capital of 10 trillion Vietnamese dong (approximately 380 million USD) and must meet strict standards in infrastructure, governance, cybersecurity, and professional staffing.

Currently, about 10 securities companies and banks have expressed plans to enter the market after obtaining licenses. Institutions such as SSI Securities, VIX Securities, MBBank, Techcombank, and VPBank have made arrangements by establishing subsidiaries or collaborating with technology partners.

Perspective

David Sacks: After the passage of the crypto market structure bill, banks will enter the cryptocurrency space comprehensively.

According to market news, White House AI and Crypto Director David Sacks stated that after the passage of the crypto market structure bill, banks will fully enter the cryptocurrency sector.

UBS Group CEO: Blockchain is the future of traditional banking, integration is inevitable

UBS Group CEO Sergio Ermotti said this week at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland: Blockchain is the future of traditional banking, and the two will merge. In 2018, he stated that blockchain was almost a necessity for companies to remain competitive, and now he asserts that the integration is inevitable. He predicted at the time that blockchain would change the industry cost structure within 5 to 10 years, and that timeline is approaching.

Galaxy CEO: The crypto market structure bill may fail, and BTC needs to break through 100,000 to 103,000 US dollars to reconfirm the upward trend.

Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz posted on X platform that the crypto market structure bill may fail due to disagreements over stablecoin yields, which is an example of U.S. politics overriding sound policy. Banks do not want crypto platforms to offer rewards to users. If the bill is rejected, the status quo seems to be what banks fear. If this issue disrupts the market structure bill, the blame will fall on banks and the Republican and Democratic senators who support them, with the biggest losers being American consumers. Let’s hope cooler heads prevail.

Mike Novogratz added that the price of gold indicates that the U.S. dollar is accelerating its loss of reserve currency status, and the sell-off in long-term bonds is also not a good sign. Bitcoin has disappointed due to ongoing selling pressure and needs to break through $100,000 to $103,000 to reconfirm its upward trend.

Tom Lee: Predicted a drop first and then a rise this year, Bitcoin will still hit new all-time highs.

On January 21, Tom Lee, Chairman of BitMine, told Wilfred Frost during an interview on the 'Masters of Investing Podcast' that 2026 will be similar to 2025, with favorable developments for the blockchain and artificial intelligence industries, but risks from tariffs and political divisions will initially hinder the market's continued rise. Tom Lee expects a correction of 15% to 20% in U.S. stocks this year, but believes that 'the year will ultimately end strongly,' benefiting from the Federal Reserve adopting a more dovish stance.

Tom Lee stated,he still expects Bitcoin to reach a new all-time high this year,but he did not mention his previous prediction that Bitcoin would reach $250,000.

ARK: Bitcoin, DeFi, and tokenized assets will dominate the next phase of crypto, with digital asset scale potentially reaching $28 trillion by 2030

On January 22, ARK Invest noted in its newly released 'Big Ideas 2026' report that Bitcoin, DeFi, and the tokenization of real-world assets are transitioning from 'crypto narratives' to functional components of global capital markets, set to dominate industry trends post-2026.

The report forecasts that by 2030, the total digital asset market could grow to $28 trillion, with Bitcoin accounting for approximately 70% (around $16 trillion), driven primarily by continuous inflows into ETFs and corporations adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets.Based on Bitcoin's fixed supply of 21 million coins,this market cap implies a price per Bitcoin of approximately $761,900, representing an increase of about 765% from the current price of around $88,000.Currently, US ETFs and listed companies hold approximately 12% of the total Bitcoin supply, a significant increase from early 2025.

ARK also pointed out that the value of DeFi is shifting from underlying networks to the application layer. In 2025, DeFi applications are expected to generate a combined revenue of approximately $3.8 billion, with some ultra-lightweight protocols achieving human efficiency and asset management efficiency comparable to traditional fintech companies. Regarding tokenization, ARK forecasts that the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) could reach $11 trillion by 2030. The scale of related assets has grown to approximately $19 billion in 2025, benefiting from the on-chain integration of assets such as US Treasuries and gold.

Glassnode: Bitcoin's pullback from recent highs reflects waning momentum rather than deteriorating trends.

According to Glassnode's weekly market analysis report, there has been a sharp reversal in the flow of funds into US spot Bitcoin ETFs, showing strong inflows, indicating institutions are re-accumulating positions. Although ETF trading volumes have risen accordingly, the increase in holder profitability also brings short-term profit-taking risks. Bitcoin has retreated from its recent high of $98,000 to below $90,000, and demand remains fragile.

A slight increase in open interest for futures reflects the cautious rebuilding of speculative activity, while a sharp decline in funding rates indicates reduced urgency among the bulls. The supply from short-term holders remains high, keeping the market sensitive to price fluctuations.Overall, Bitcoin is in a consolidation phase, but strengthening buying power and renewed institutional interest are driving the market structure toward a more constructive direction.

Crypto Sector Concept Tracking

Strategy spent $2.13 billion to add 22,305 Bitcoin to its holdings

According to official news, $Strategy (MSTR.US)$purchased 22,305 Bitcoin at approximately $2.13 billion, with an average price of about $95,284 per Bitcoin. As of January 19, 2026, Strategy holds a total of 709,715 Bitcoin, with cumulative investments amounting to approximately $53.92 billion, and an average holding price of around $75,979 per Bitcoin.

CoinDesk: Strategy's credit risk has eased as the value of its preferred shares exceeds convertible bonds

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin treasury company $Strategy (MSTR.US)$credit risk has been alleviated due to the nominal value of its perpetual preferred shares reaching $8.36 billion, surpassing the $8.2 billion in convertible debt.This shift towards permanent capital in its capital structure has reduced refinancing risks and balance sheet volatility.

The company’s preferred stock portfolio includes four instruments with an annual dividend totaling approximately $876 million. Additionally, Strategy holds $2.25 billion in reserves to improve dividend coverage and reduce short-term financing risks. The number of outstanding common shares has increased from 76 million in 2020 to over 310 million, which may alleviate dilution pressure from future bond conversions.

BitMine: Currently holds over 3.48% of the Ethereum token supply, with total assets reaching $14.5 billion

According to PR Newswire, Ethereum Treasury Company $Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR.US)$ disclosed that it now holds over 3.48% of the total Ethereum token supply. BitMine’s combined holdings of cryptocurrencies, cash, and 'Moonshots' amount to $14.5 billion, including approximately 4.203 million ETH, $979 million in unsecured cash, and other cryptocurrency assets.

As of January 19 Eastern Time, the company's holdings in cryptocurrencies include: 4,203,036 ETH and 193 BTC. Additionally, the company holds shares in Eightco Holdings worth $22 million, as well as $979 million in unsecured cash. Bitmine’s total Ethereum staking volume amounts to 1,838,003 ETH (valued at $3,211 per ETH, totaling $5.9 billion), an increase of 581,920 ETH compared to last week.Furthermore, Bitmine announced that it has received shareholder approval to increase its authorized share count, providing greater flexibility for future financing.At the annual general meeting on January 15, the proposal was approved with 81% of the votes in favor. This move does not mean an immediate issuance of new shares but raises the cap on the number of shares the company can issue in the future.

The New York Stock Exchange announces it is developing a tokenized securities platform

The New York Stock Exchange is$Intercontinental Exchange (ICE.US)$A subsidiary, it announced that it is developing a tokenized securities trading and on-chain settlement platform and will seek regulatory approval for this purpose.The platform will support a tokenized trading experience, including 24/7 operations, instant settlement, orders denominated in US dollars, and financing based on stablecoins.Its design integrates the exchange’s Pillar matching engine with a blockchain-based post-trade processing system and features multi-chain settlement and custody capabilities.

Cryptocurrency card payment volume reaches $18 billion, with Visa accounting for over 90% of transactions.

According to an Artemis research report, cryptocurrency cards have become a key channel for stablecoin usage, with an annualized transaction volume of $18 billion, nearing the $19 billion scale of peer-to-peer stablecoin on-chain transfers.$Visa (V.US)$Visa dominates this market, accounting for over 90% of transaction volume. Despite rapid growth, Artemis believes that direct cryptocurrency payments will struggle to fully replace traditional card networks in the short term.

PayPal has launched a free self-service tax filing service, and starting from 2025, it will be required to report digital asset disposal gains to the IRS.

$PayPal (PYPL.US)$Announced a partnership with embedded tax technology platform april, allowing U.S. PayPal Debit Mastercard users to use april’s self-service tax filing service to file their 2025 federal and state taxes for free.

According to information on PayPal's official website, cryptocurrencies held by users on its platform are subject to taxation. Starting from the 2025 tax year, the U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) will require U.S. digital asset brokers like PayPal to report digital asset disposal gains on Form 1099-DA. If a user disposes of assets in their PayPal wallet during the applicable tax year, such as selling or exchanging cryptocurrencies, PayPal will send the IRS Form 1099-DA to the user by February 15.

Coinbase establishes an independent advisory committee on quantum computing and blockchain to address future quantum threats

According to official news,$Coinbase (COIN.US)$Announced the establishment of an independent advisory board on quantum computing and blockchain to address future quantum threats. The board brings together world-renowned experts with the aim of assessing the impact of quantum computing on the blockchain ecosystem and providing clear, independent guidance to the broader community. The committee will issue position papers on quantum risks, offer defense recommendations to developers and institutions, and provide real-time analysis of technological breakthroughs.

Coinbase stated that this committee is part of its post-quantum security roadmap, with other initiatives including updates to Bitcoin address handling methods, internal key management systems, and advancements in supporting post-quantum signature schemes like ML-DSA within Multi-Party Computation (MPC) systems. The committee is expected to release its first position paper on quantum risk assessment and resilience-building roadmaps early next year.

BitGo's stock price rose over 30% at one point on its first day of trading on the NYSE but later settled to a gain of more than 2%.

Cryptocurrency Custodian Company$BitGo Holdings (BTGO.US)$The IPO was priced at $18 per share. On its first day, the stock price surged over 30% at one point but later settled to a gain of more than 2%. The company and its shareholders sold a total of 11.8 million shares, raising approximately $213 million. It also disclosed a profit of $35 million for the first three quarters of 2025 and custodial assets of about $104 billion.

Bitcoin's total network hash rate has dropped by 15% from its peak; have miners been lured away by AI?

On January 19, according to a Cointelegraph report, Bitcoin’s network hash rate fell below 1,000 EH/s for the first time since mid-September, marking a cumulative decline of nearly 15% compared to the high on October 19. In an article posted on X on Monday, Leon Lyu, CEO and founder of StandardHash, attributed the drop in Bitcoin’s hash rate toBitcoin miners reallocating their hash power to artificial intelligence computing services in pursuit of higher profit margins.

The transition of mining companies to AI computing power has become an industry trend, with both leading enterprises and emerging players accelerating their layout in this field.

From mining to AI computing power, why is the 'brilliant transformation' of mining companies so effective?

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