The Fed raises interest rates for the first time in three years! How will the market react?

米股研究

joined discussion ·

TuiTui X Daily: Markets are closely watching Waller's speech; it remains uncertain whether there will be a rate hike in September. The bullish sentiment from NVIDIA's earnings lasted only a day, and divergence within the AI supply chain is deepening.

August 29, 2026 · Covering 397 KOLs and 2,041 tweets

Federal Reserve Governor Waller’s Jackson Hole debut put the "September rate hike" back on the table, causing interest rates and exchange rates to tighten immediately. NVIDIA, which was celebrating its earnings report just the night before, surged on Friday before reversing course, wiping out most of its intraday gains. The semiconductor index was rejected at key moving averages, while bullish voices betting on a dip remained loud. The longstanding concern that gains are highly concentrated in a few leading stocks appeared particularly glaring on this turning point day.

I. Trending Stocks on X

II. Market Main Theme | Waller Turns Hawkish: NVIDIA Surges Then Retraces, Deepening Divergence in the AI Supply Chain

1. NVIDIA surges then retraces; semiconductors rejected at key levels: The positive earnings sentiment lasted only one day, with Friday’s price action bringing the narrative back to reality.@Mr_DerivativesRecord: Over the past 48 hours, the stock price surged from $210 to $230 before falling back to $217, equivalent to a market cap increase of $484 billion followed by a decline of $315 billion;@alphatrendsJudged Friday as a "mixed tape with real cracks"—the Philadelphia Semiconductor ETF ($VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH.US)$Rejected near the downward-sloping 50-day moving average (around 600), the measured move points to an annual anchor point of approximately 513;@growthrapidlyObserved,$Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS.US)$ on Friday, only NVIDIA and Tesla closed lower, while the broader market struggled even more;@CheddarFlow Large block sales of NVIDIA call options emerged suddenly before the close. The combination of profit-taking in market leaders and resistance at key sector levels serves as the first litmus test for the quality of this earnings-driven rally.

2. Gains were extremely concentrated; the AI narrative suffered a collective setback on Friday: During this earnings season, the S&P 500 added a total market capitalization of $1.75 trillion, with NVIDIA and Microsoft alone contributing $1.415 trillion, while the remaining 71 technology constituents saw a combined net decline of $22 billion. The index's resilience is far more fragile than surface-level figures suggest—Friday's pullback was a live demonstration of this. Additionally, according to@joinautopilot , Marvell's Q3 results beat expectations, but the stock plunged due to margin compression and warnings from Jim Cramer that "this surge has no room for error," wiping out approximately $17.6 billion in market value in a single day; IREN recorded an impairment charge of $638.8 million, widening its fiscal 2026 net loss to $702.6 million, causing its share price to drop over 13% in one day; reports indicated that a consortium led by Advent and Stripe abandoned plans for a roughly $50 billion acquisition of PayPal. Risk events erupted simultaneously for three stocks with vastly different profiles, revealing that this rally is far more selective than the S&P's repeated record highs suggest.

3. Macro Topics | Waller's Debut Remarks Lean Hawkish, Igniting Bets on a September Rate Hike

1. Waller's debut remarks lean hawkish, causing the probability of a rate hike to jump overnightThe market has reframed the narrative around the September rate decision from "whether to cut rates" to "whether to hike rates."@NickTimiraosQuoting Waller directly: "I find it difficult to describe current overall financial conditions as restrictive," and "We must be confident that underlying inflation is clearly and sufficiently moving toward our target; otherwise, we still have work to do."@WOLF_FinancialHighlighting the context: With the current interest rate range at 3.50%-3.75% while inflation remains above the 2% target, this combination itself constitutes an argument for a rate hike. Pricing reacted accordingly:@bespokeinvestThe statistical probability of a September rate hike jumped from approximately 33% before the speech to 56%, while Polymarket's odds for a hike contract also rose from around 30% to 49%. The market's prior assumption that "the hiking cycle has ended" was effectively shattered.

2. Should this speech be traded as hawkish? Key Opinion Leaders (KOLs) are divided into two camps.：@elerianmSome evaluated it as a "clear and forceful" debut that met high external expectations;@JasonZXOthers, after listening in full, considered the tone "not particularly hawkish"—Waller did not commit to whether rates would be hiked in September, emphasizing instead a "commitment to discipline rather than to a specific decision."@AndreasStenoHe also warned that the market might be "over-interpreting" the remarks. The divergence itself implies that every official statement ahead of the September 15-16 FOMC meeting could reignite pricing volatility.

3. Two-year Treasury yields surged, even as economic data showed signs of cooling.The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note intraday spiked to near 4.72%;@dampedspringIt was noted that the 2-year yield hit a new high since the election, with markets pricing in a rate-hike cycle peaking in Q3 2027, totaling approximately 2.5 hikes. On the same day, the August Chicago PMI fell to 47.1 (expected: 57.9), slipping back into contraction territory. The coexistence of hawkish pricing and weakening data means every report ahead of the FOMC meeting will be re-examined through the lens of 'whether to raise rates.'

4. Individual Stock Forums

1. $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$| After giving back gains one day post-earnings surge, the debate shifts to price action

The earnings themselves were nearly flawless, but Friday's intraday spike and subsequent pullback shifted the debate from fundamentals to technicals: bulls interpreted the dip as an option-driven fake-out and a buying opportunity, while the cautious camp focused on weakness in the semiconductor sector and capital outflow signals before the close.

***Bullish

• @saxena_puruNVIDIA has extended the visibility of the AI capital expenditure cycle sustainability to the end of 2027; this ~16-month visibility could ignite a rebound in AI stocks that had become technically oversold after the June-July correction.

• @Banana3StocksFriday's pullback was merely an 'options trick'; based on the monthly Morning Star reversal pattern, the target is set at $260–$280.

• @growthrapidlyNVIDIA is ranked first on the top-10 buy list for the post-earnings season.

***Bearish

• @pdicarlotraderTechnically, it remains in the bearish 'smart money zone,' with persistent issues.

***Neutral

• @Mr_DerivativesOver the past 48 hours, the stock price surged from $210 to $230 before pulling back to $217. Each $1 fluctuation corresponds to a $24.2 billion change in market capitalization, equivalent to a $484 billion gain followed by a $315 billion loss in market cap within 48 hours.

• @CheddarFlowA large block of NVIDIA call option sell orders suddenly appeared just before the market close.

2. $IREN Ltd (IREN.US)$| Earnings miss sends shares down over 13%; bulls argue the reaction is excessive

Impairment charges and net losses dragged the stock price into a sharp single-day decline, but some bulls believe the drop exceeds the deterioration in fundamentals, with AI computing contracts remaining a key long-term catalyst.

***Bullish

• @growthrapidlySome weakness was expected after the earnings report, but no one anticipated a nearly 14% plunge in the stock price. This reaction appears excessive relative to the actual progress of the AI business.

• @growthrapidlyIf IREN's new multi-year contract with a "top-tier frontier AI lab" is confirmed to be with Anthropic, where could the stock go? We've launched a poll for readers to choose among $55, $65, $75, or above $85.

***Bearish

• @joinautopilotThe company recorded a $638.8 million impairment charge (primarily related to older Bitcoin mining rigs), driving its fiscal 2026 net loss to $702.6 million and wiping out approximately $1.85 billion in market capitalization in a single day. Leopold Aschenbrenner had previously disclosed a relevant position of about $401 million in May.

***Neutral

• @StockMKTNewzThe stock price fell more than 10% at one point during intraday trading.

3. $Marvell Technology (MRVL.US)$ | Beats expectations but faces sell-off; profit margins become a new concern

Q3 data surpassed Wall Street expectations, but Jim Cramer's warning on profit margins overshadowed the earnings beat. Long-term bulls chose to stay on the sidelines, waiting for better entry points.

***Bullish

• @pdicarlotraderWe remain in a bull cycle but will maintain patience, waiting for more suitable buying ranges in the coming months. It is explicitly stated that we are not bearish on this stock, but are unwilling to chase the current high prices.

• @InvestmentGuru_: Believes current price levels may offer a good entry opportunity.

***Bearish

• @joinautopilot: The stock price plummeted after Cramer warned that "there is no room for error in this rally," and rising costs from ramping up AI chip production are squeezing profit margins. The company's market capitalization erased approximately $17.6 billion in a single day.

***Neutral

• @PhotonCap: A research report released before the earnings announcement compared its Photonic Fabric technology with papers from ECTC 2025 and 2026, documenting the actual progress of the technology.

4. $PayPal (PYPL.US)$ | $53 billion acquisition falls through, stock price dives

: The stock plunged following rumors that the Advent and Stripe consortium had abandoned the acquisition, but changes in Burry's holdings suggest his stance is not purely bearish.

***Bullish

• @TheLongInvest: Believes the company's intrinsic value should exceed $100 per share; the issue lies in the current board's inability to drive the stock price to that level.

***Bearish

• @TradingThomas3: Stripe is no longer acquiring PayPal, sending the stock price back into the cold storage.

***Neutral

• @burrytracker: Michael Burry's latest holdings show a slight 3 percentage point reduction in his PayPal long position, but he also stated he would consider adding to his position if the stock falls into the mid-$40s range, indicating his stance is not purely bearish.

• @cperruna: Reports indicate that the Advent and Stripe consortium has abandoned the acquisition, causing the stock to plunge as much as 15% in pre-market trading.

5. $Amazon (AMZN.US)$| Surged nearly 4%, as Agentic AI is proven for the first time to drive incremental consumption

Evercore raised its target price, coupled with the first positive evidence of AI-powered shopping agents; bullish sentiment has clearly outweighed skeptical voices.

***Bullish

• @StockSavvyShay: Evercore raised its target price to $355, citing the first evidence that Agentic AI makes an incremental contribution to retail operations. Among Alexa AI users, 57% purchased products they previously did not know they needed.

• @oguzerkan: Data shows that since the release of ChatGPT in late 2022, the company's online store sales growth has accelerated year over year, with Agentic AI driving substantial growth for e-commerce.

• @Jake__Wujastyk: Given the current trend, there is a high probability of hitting a new all-time high in September; this week's market action has already ignited the rally leading into September.

***Bearish

• @RihardJarc: If Anthropic goes public at a $2.5 trillion valuation, Amazon's stake in Anthropic would account for 20% of its total market capitalization; excluding this equity stake, the company's actual gain over the past five years is only 10%.

***Neutral

• @StockMKTNewz: The stock price rose more than 4% at one point during the day.

5. Event Calendar

1. Announced

• NVIDIA's earnings report drove the stock up 8.5% on Thursday; on Friday, it spiked following Chair Powell's remarks before pulling back, partially giving up gains.

• Federal Reserve Chair Powell delivered his first keynote speech since taking office at Jackson Hole (August 28). The market interpreted the tone as generally hawkish, causing the probability of a September rate hike to jump.

• IREN reported its fiscal 2026 results, recording an impairment charge of $638.8 million. Net loss widened to $702.6 million, and the stock plunged more than 13% on the day.

• Marvell's Q3 earnings beat expectations, but concerns over profit margins triggered a sell-off, wiping out approximately $17.6 billion in market cap in a single day.

• Reports indicate that the Advent and Stripe consortium has abandoned its roughly $50 billion acquisition plan for PayPal, causing the stock to plunge as much as 15% in pre-market trading.

• The August Chicago PMI fell to 47.1 (expected: 57.9), slipping back into contraction territory.

• Japan's Ministry of Finance disclosed that it spent a record $96 billion intervening in the foreign exchange market to support the yen in the month ending August 26.

2. This Week

• Apple CEO Tim Cook stepped down on Tuesday, succeeded by John Ternus; the latter will preside over the new product launch event on September 9 (with market expectations pointing to a potential foldable iPhone release) and must address lingering issues regarding unfulfilled AI computing capacity (when previously asked if there was sufficient computing power to support Siri's AI features, Cook responded, "We haven't fully figured out the computing aspect yet").

• The latest non-farm payrolls report will be released next week, serving as a critical data verification window ahead of the September FOMC meeting.

3. Looking further ahead

• The Federal Reserve will hold its FOMC meeting on September 15–16, marking Warsh's first decision on whether to raise interest rates since taking office.

• Anthropic plans to publicly file its IPO prospectus after the Labor Day holiday (on September 7), hold an Investor Day in mid-September, with a potential listing window in late September or early October.

• Trump and ** are expected to meet in September; China has requested that the US "remove obstacles," while Trump is considering imposing an additional 7.5% tariff on Chinese goods.

$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$$SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$$Invesco Exchange Traded Fd Tr S&P 500 Equal Weight Etf (RSP.US)$$NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$$Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$$Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$$State Street® SPDR® Dow Jones Industrial Average® ETF Trust (DIA.US)$$Russell 2000 Index (.RUT.US)$$iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM.US)$$Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS.US)$$USD (USDindex.FX)$$U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$$XAU/USD (XAUUSD.CFD)$$SPDR Gold ETF (GLD.US)$$CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index (.VIX.US)$$CME-Bitcoin RR Futures (SEP6) (BTCmain.US)$$iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHA.US)$$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$$Tesla (TSLA.US)$$Meta Platforms (META.US)$$Amazon (AMZN.US)$$Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$$Apple (AAPL.US)$

This report is based solely on the authentic public tweets of 397 Key Opinion Leaders (KOLs) from the past 24 hours, with no fabrication; each argument can be traced back to the original post by the author. Trending status reflects discussion volume, not sentiment; duplicates arising from multiple accounts retweeting the same news have been merged. KOLs represent professional and leading-edge viewpoints, which are not equivalent to retail investor sentiment. This is not investment advice.

129K Views