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June minutes signal diverging views—what’s next for Fed policy?

At 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on July 9, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its June meeting. The minutes showed that most officials Show More
At 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on July 9, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its June meeting. The minutes showed that most officials noted inflation could remain elevated. Some participants saw a need for further rate hikes, but ultimately all officials supported holding rates steady in June. However, there was clear divergence among officials regarding the future path of interest rates. Some policymakers believed inflationary pressures might ease, creating room for rate cuts, while others expressed concern that price pressures could persist, suggesting additional hikes might be necessary. Recently, market expectations for further Fed rate hikes have cooled. Morgan Stanley, after closely observing Kevin Warsh, noted that his rhetoric has shifted toward a more balanced approach to the Fed’s dual mandate—moving away from a singular focus on inflation—and combined with falling oil prices dampening inflation expectations, a July rate hike is now nearly ruled out. Morgan Stanley maintains its baseline forecast of no rate hikes for the rest of the year. What is your view on the Fed’s future monetary policy direction? And will U.S. equities resume an upward trend?
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