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Don't bet heavily on NVIDIA's earnings! The truth behind 10 historical data points + major variables from Jackson Hole

For those following tech,friends,the biggest focus this week is undoubtedly NVIDIA's earnings report. $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$
First, let's look at Wall Street's revenue expectations for NVIDIA:Yes$92 billion,with projectedyear-over-year growth of 97%,The expected earnings per share (EPS) is $2.09.Meeting this figure would be in line with expectations, while exceeding it would constitute a beat. Let's take a look at the probability of NVIDIA's stock price rising or falling following its last 10 earnings reports 👇🏻
For those following tech,friends,the biggest focus this week is undoubtedly NVIDIA's earnings report. $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ First, let's look at Wall Street's revenue expectations for NVIDIA:Yes$92 billion,with projectedyear-over-year growth of 97%,The expected earnings per share (EPS) is $2.09.Meeting this figure would be in line with expectations, while exceeding it would constitute a beat. Let's take a look at the probability of NVIDIA's stock price rising or falling following its last 10 earnings reports 👇🏻 See the summary in this image.，Wall Street has dubbed this phenomenon the "Earnings Curse."，Regardless of whether the results are good or bad,NVIDIAalmost always opens lower the next day.There are several specific reasons for this. 1.Expectations have been sky-high,and analysts have issued optimistic ratings on NVIDIA.It is difficult for reported earnings to surpass such optimistic expectations.Beating expectations has become the norm,but I would argue thatthe norm itself isAll bearish news has been fully priced in. 2. The weighting is too heavy; a single stockaccounts for an excessively large share of the Nasdaq index.If institutional investors show even a slight willingness to sell,the stock price is likely to be weighed down. 3.Post-earnings volatility on the first dayis largely just noise.Institutions may be digesting the data,oradjusting their positions., butIf retail investors buy in now, they are likely catching the short-term top., soThis means if you hold NVIDIAand have aheavy position, you should appropriately reduce your exposure before the earnings report.，Do not bet heavilyon its directional move.Trade on the right side of the trend.Wait for its earnings reportand add to your position at a favorable price after it is released，to average down your cost basisThis is also part of the market'sHave traded against...
See the summary in this image.，Wall Street has dubbed this phenomenon the "Earnings Curse."，Regardless of whether the results are good or bad,NVIDIAalmost always opens lower the next day.There are several specific reasons for this.
1.Expectations have been sky-high,and analysts have issued optimistic ratings on NVIDIA.It is difficult for reported earnings to surpass such optimistic expectations.Beating expectations has become the norm,but I would argue thatthe norm itself isAll bearish news has been fully priced in.
2. The weighting is too heavy; a single stockaccounts for an excessively large share of the Nasdaq index.If institutional investors show even a slight willingness to sell,the stock price is likely to be weighed down.
3.Post-earnings volatility on the first dayis largely just noise.Institutions may be digesting the data,oradjusting their positions., butIf retail investors buy in now, they are likely catching the short-term top., soThis means if you hold NVIDIAand have aheavy position, you should appropriately reduce your exposure before the earnings report.，Do not bet heavilyon its directional move.Trade on the right side of the trend.Wait for its earnings reportand add to your position at a favorable price after it is released，to average down your cost basisThis is also part of the market'sstrategic game。If you don't hold any positions, you can see that buying the dip after the earnings report resulted in no losses. Personally, I think NVIDIAif it drops after the earnings report, it is very likely a fakeout, and it could well bounce back within a few weeks.

On another major note, this Fridaythe Jackson Hole Global Central Bankers Symposium
1. This isthe first time since Walsh took officethat he will speak at Jackson Hole.Everyone can recall, in terms ofPowellduring his tenure, heIt provides forward guidance on the market outlook, demonstrating a keen understanding of market sentiment and engaging in expectation management, another major test forHints about the direction, among other things, leave you guessing。However, after Walsh took office, he eliminated all forward guidance，including in the FOMC statementswhich shifted from previously indicating direction to simply providing no hints at all.
2.His policy framework also differs from Powell's, as Powell isinclined toward data dependence, reviewing the data before communicating future direction,Give the market sufficient time to digest the news, butWaller is results-orientedmaking decisions more quickly,he has a lower tolerance for inflation and dislikes the market overinterpreting his every word。
3. Before the September FOMC meeting,the market prices in roughly a 41% probability of a rate hike in September,with a 45% probability of one rate hike before year-end.But Wallernever plays by the market's expectations,so this series of major events impacting this week's trading,The market has issued three types of warnings。You can refer to the images for details on these three signals。
For those following tech,friends,the biggest focus this week is undoubtedly NVIDIA's earnings report. $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ First, let's look at Wall Street's revenue expectations for NVIDIA:Yes$92 billion,with projectedyear-over-year growth of 97%,The expected earnings per share (EPS) is $2.09.Meeting this figure would be in line with expectations, while exceeding it would constitute a beat. Let's take a look at the probability of NVIDIA's stock price rising or falling following its last 10 earnings reports 👇🏻 See the summary in this image.，Wall Street has dubbed this phenomenon the "Earnings Curse."，Regardless of whether the results are good or bad,NVIDIAalmost always opens lower the next day.There are several specific reasons for this. 1.Expectations have been sky-high,and analysts have issued optimistic ratings on NVIDIA.It is difficult for reported earnings to surpass such optimistic expectations.Beating expectations has become the norm,but I would argue thatthe norm itself isAll bearish news has been fully priced in. 2. The weighting is too heavy; a single stockaccounts for an excessively large share of the Nasdaq index.If institutional investors show even a slight willingness to sell,the stock price is likely to be weighed down. 3.Post-earnings volatility on the first dayis largely just noise.Institutions may be digesting the data,oradjusting their positions., butIf retail investors buy in now, they are likely catching the short-term top., soThis means if you hold NVIDIAand have aheavy position, you should appropriately reduce your exposure before the earnings report.，Do not bet heavilyon its directional move.Trade on the right side of the trend.Wait for its earnings reportand add to your position at a favorable price after it is released，to average down your cost basisThis is also part of the market'sHave traded against...
Summary:
NVIDIAAvoid holding heavy positions ahead of earnings reportsFollowing Powell's remarks on Friday,if you are concerned about the potential for a market downturn,you mayconsider reducing your positions appropriately before Thursday's meeting,especially for those with significant exposure to tech stocksand wait untilthe market has fully digested these two key developmentsAdd to your position. But alsodon't be scared off by this jinx.，The long-term thesis for NVIDIA remains unchanged,and the AI rally is likely to continue its upward trend.Volatility is just short-term noise.，For retail investors,discipline in trading is key to determining final returns.Exercising trading discipline is key to determining final returns。
As for stocks in other sectors,，I will wait for several key events this week to play out.Let's take another look at the market conditions,and seek new opportunities.After all, this bull run has been led by the technology sector, with capital primarily flowing into areas such as AI, semiconductors, and data centers, while other sectors have shown mediocre performance. This week's PCE inflation data, the Jackson Hole symposium, NVIDIA's earnings report, and the revisions to employment datacould all serve as significant variables influencing the short-term trend of tech stocks.Therefore, at this stage, rather than betting on event outcomes or hunting for new individual stocks,I believe it is more important to first observe whether the market direction is being reconfirmed.。
For those following tech,friends,the biggest focus this week is undoubtedly NVIDIA's earnings report. $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ First, let's look at Wall Street's revenue expectations for NVIDIA:Yes$92 billion,with projectedyear-over-year growth of 97%,The expected earnings per share (EPS) is $2.09.Meeting this figure would be in line with expectations, while exceeding it would constitute a beat. Let's take a look at the probability of NVIDIA's stock price rising or falling following its last 10 earnings reports 👇🏻 See the summary in this image.，Wall Street has dubbed this phenomenon the "Earnings Curse."，Regardless of whether the results are good or bad,NVIDIAalmost always opens lower the next day.There are several specific reasons for this. 1.Expectations have been sky-high,and analysts have issued optimistic ratings on NVIDIA.It is difficult for reported earnings to surpass such optimistic expectations.Beating expectations has become the norm,but I would argue thatthe norm itself isAll bearish news has been fully priced in. 2. The weighting is too heavy; a single stockaccounts for an excessively large share of the Nasdaq index.If institutional investors show even a slight willingness to sell,the stock price is likely to be weighed down. 3.Post-earnings volatility on the first dayis largely just noise.Institutions may be digesting the data,oradjusting their positions., butIf retail investors buy in now, they are likely catching the short-term top., soThis means if you hold NVIDIAand have aheavy position, you should appropriately reduce your exposure before the earnings report.，Do not bet heavilyon its directional move.Trade on the right side of the trend.Wait for its earnings reportand add to your position at a favorable price after it is released，to average down your cost basisThis is also part of the market'sHave traded against...
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Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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