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[TuiTui X Daily] A multi-act drama of trust unfolds on Wall Street: Citadel executes a liquidation-style reversal to arbitrage semiconductors; Gold breaks above $4,600 and Bitcoin surges to $77,000, defying the Federal Reserve

August 22, 2026 · Covering 389 KOLs and 2,084 tweets

Wall Street staged a multi-act drama about trust on Friday: Citadel's "liquidation-style reversal" arbitrage script sent semiconductor stocks on a textbook rollercoaster ride. Meanwhile, gold, silver, and Bitcoin surged in unison, voting against the Federal Reserve's inflation promises with hard cash. The divergence at the individual stock level is more intriguing than the surface calm of the indices—Walmart's earnings miss caused a sharp drop, while Palantir and Robinhood both hit new highs.

I. Trending Stocks on X

II. Market Main Themes | Citadel's liquidation-style reversal dumps semiconductors; memory supercycle and credit risk share the stage

1. Citadel's "Liquidation-Style Reversal" Arbitrage Spectacle: Ken Griffin personally confirmed that Citadel Securities has sold approximately 80% of the risk exposure it acquired from the liquidation of Leopold Aschenbrenner's "Situational Awareness" fund. Key opinion leaders (KOLs) have reconstructed the full timeline: First, rumors of an emergency rate hike triggered forced liquidations of highly leveraged semiconductor stocks. Subsequently, Citadel took over Leopold's leveraged positions at 40-50% discounts. Two weeks later (on August 11), Citadel wrote to clients advising them to "systematically buy these sold-off names," prompting a market rebound. Now, Ken Griffin has confirmed that Citadel has heavily sold off the acquired positions during the rebound over the past two weeks (@amitisinvesting). Gavin Baker estimates that the original leverage on this position exceeded 4x, with total exposure of at least $180 billion, suggesting that selling pressure has likely been cleared out (@GavinSBaker); another KOL bluntly described this as a textbook script of "scare-tactic rate hike rumors → forced liquidation → bottom-fishing → bullish promotion → selling to latecomers" (@aleabitoreddit）。

2. Memory Super Cycle Supports the Bottom, but Credit Leverage in AI CapEx Starts Flashing Warnings: Prices for both DRAM and NAND have risen to historic highs, with the supply gap expected to persist beyond 2027 (@ParadisLabs）； $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ Executives revealed that the memory supply shortage for data centers "often fails to meet even half of customer demand" (@Beth_Kindig), while the company also announced an additional $10 billion investment to build a long-term R&D center in Boise. However, the other side of the coin is that, $Broadcom (AVGO.US)$ in order to raise nearly $100 billion for AI chip financing, its 5-year credit default swaps (CDS) have surged to their widest levels in history, $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ CDS spreads are also approaching historical highs—caution in the credit market is outpacing stock price movements (@GlobalMktObserv）。

3. Significant divergence among individual stocks beneath a calm index surface: Walmart versus popular "AI+" stocks： $Walmart (WMT.US)$ Walmart's same-store sales data, which missed expectations, triggered its worst single-day performance since May 2022; meanwhile, $Palantir (PLTR.US)$ surpassed $180, $Robinhood (HOOD.US)$ marking its best single-day performance since last September—on the same day, popular "AI+" stocks and traditional retail blue chips moved in completely opposite directions (@amitisinvesting；@wallstengine）。

III. Macro Topics | Gold breaks $4,600, Bitcoin surges, as the Federal Reserve's credibility continues to be undermined by "voting with feet"

1. Precious metals and cryptocurrencies rally collectively, as inflation concerns drive capital into hard assets: Gold closed the week at $4,602.66, up 5.18% for the week, hitting a 14-week high (@Hedgeye); over the past three weeks, gold prices have cumulatively risen by approximately 14%, silver is approaching $70, crude oil has surpassed $87, and Bitcoin briefly surged above $76,000 during intraday trading (@PeterSchiff). Goldman Sachs' research report maintains its year-end 2026 gold target price at $4,900 per ounce, warning that rising call option open interest could amplify gold price volatility through market maker hedging mechanisms (@CRUDEOIL231). The CNN Fear & Greed Index rose to 56 (Greed zone), up from 52 (Neutral) a week ago.

2. Fed minutes reveal rare hawkish dissent, but bond markets are unconvinced by the Treasury's maneuvering: The FOMC minutes released on August 19 showed a 9-3 vote to keep interest rates unchanged, with three members (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan) rarely leaning toward a 25-basis-point hike—a combination of dissent seen only once since 2000 (@shanaka86). Meanwhile, the yield on the 30-year US Treasury note remains hovering near 5.2%, interpreted as the bond market's skepticism regarding the effectiveness of the Treasury's surprise increase in buyback operations this week (@ces921）。

3. Anthropic accelerates IPO plans; capital reallocation becomes a potential disruptor next week: Rumors suggest Anthropic may file for its IPO as early as the end of this month. If the fundraising scale exceeds$SpaceX (SPCX.US)$, it would become the largest IPO in history (@amitisinvesting). Chinese KOLs have warned that if hedge funds wish to participate in subscriptions, the easiest source of capital reduction would be semiconductor stocks with the largest gains over the past year. Even if fundamentals remain unchanged, the rebalancing itself could drag down the broader market. Coupled with next week's Jackson Hole Global Central Bankers Symposium, volatility may further amplify (@tychozzz）。

4. Crypto market sees simultaneous liquidations and rebound: The seventh-largest forced liquidation event in history occurred in the past 24 hours, with $3.5 billion in leveraged positions liquidated. However, during the same period, the total cryptocurrency market cap increased by approximately $280 billion, with Bitcoin reclaiming the $72,000 level and Ethereum rising back above $2,500. Expectations surrounding the CLARITY Act were the primary catalyst (@amitisinvesting）。

4. Individual Stock Forums

1. $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$| Six consecutive daily declines set a four-year record; upcoming earnings week to test the "buy-the-dip" logic

NVIDIA has just emerged from its longest streak of six consecutive daily declines in four years. Market divergence centers on whether this is a normal pre-earnings pullback or a signal of spillover AI credit risk. Bulls are betting that historical patterns will repeat, while bears are focusing on Broadcom's surging credit default swaps (CDS) during the same period.

***Bullish

• @Mr_Derivatives: A review of trends following the last four earnings reports shows an average maximum drawdown of -10.4% and an average V-shaped recovery completed in 17.3 days. Intuitively, Jensen Huang will break the curse of post-earnings sell-offs seen in the previous four cycles; even if it drops further, it remains worth buying.

• @IBDinvestors: NVIDIA will lead the earnings season during the week of August 24 (alongside $Marvell Technology (MRVL.US)$ 、 $Salesforce (CRM.US)$ 、 $Intuit (INTU.US)$ etc.), becoming the market focus.

***Bearish

• @BarchartNVIDIA has fallen for six consecutive trading sessions, marking its longest losing streak in four years.

• @GlobalMktObservBroadcom’s 5-year credit default swaps (CDS) have surged by 79.85 basis points since August 2025, hitting a record high; NVIDIA’s CDS also rose by 48.90 basis points over the same period, approaching historic highs. Concerns in the credit market regarding the financing structure of the AI capital expenditure cycle are outpacing the equity market.

***Neutral

• @IBDinvestorsPublished an article exploring "what NVIDIA's earnings report actually needs to drive the stock price higher," maintaining a cautious wait-and-see stance.

2. $Tesla (TSLA.US)$| Gap fill to $364, Nevada greenlights robotaxis vs. old bears rehashing past grievances

Tesla’s gap is being filled near $364. Bulls are highlighting Nevada’s regulatory approval and short-term targets of $370–$400, while bears fixate on the solar business’s historical liabilities and record recalls in China. Sell-side analysts explicitly state they remain cautious on Tesla.

***Bullish

• @pdicarlotraderThe short-term gap is being filled, and the upside target of $370–$400 is within reach. In the best-case scenario, expect resistance near $400 in the short term. The medium-term outlook (12–18 months) remains bullish, but another pullback is possible in the near term.

• @JasonZXNevada has approved Tesla to deploy no more than 5,000 autonomous robotaxis within the state over the next 12 months. For the first time, regulation is ahead of fleet size, prompting jokes like, "Do you dare deploy just 500 units first to show us?"

***Bearish

• @GordonJohnson19: Revisiting the solar business debacle—the solar factory built with $959 million in funding from New York State promised to create 1,500 high-tech jobs and achieve 10 GW of capacity, but ultimately delivered only about 300 MW. This was accompanied by a bid-rigging scandal and an $884 million impairment charge. The previously touted "synergies" from the $260 million acquisition of SolarCity also failed to materialize. Meanwhile, it was noted that Tesla's largest-ever recall in China involves 5.7 million vehicles, with documents acknowledging that occupants may struggle to find emergency exits after a collision. Additionally, there are two ongoing door-latch investigations in the US and legislative attention focused on a congressional statistic citing 15 deaths.

• @garyblack00: Due to lowered earnings expectations, intensifying competition in unsupervised autonomous driving, and clearly elevated valuations, we explicitly maintain a cautious stance on Tesla.

***Neutral

• @WOLF_Financial: Tesla's market capitalization has once again surpassed Meta's, with the former at $1.44 trillion and the latter at $1.40 trillion.

3. $Palantir (PLTR.US)$| Breaking through $180, Deutsche Bank reaffirms its $200 price target, but technical analysts warn that "the base is not yet mature enough."

Palantir broke through $180 intraday, hitting a new high. On the same day, Deutsche Bank reaffirmed its Buy rating and $200 price target. However, technical analysts cautioned that the current rally has extended six times the Average True Range (ATR) away from the 50-day moving average, and weekly consolidation has only entered its second week, meaning the foundation is not yet solid.

***Bullish

• @StockSavvyShay: Palantir broke through $180 intraday.

• @amitisinvesting: Deutsche Bank reaffirmed its Buy rating and $200 price target for Palantir, stating that the company continues to lead in converting AI demand into measurable customer value, with Ontology, AIP, and sovereign AI capabilities constituting differentiated barriers.

• @RichardMoglen: The stock price is testing the upper boundary of its previous range.

***Bearish

• No clear bearish sentiment observed today.

***Neutral

• @jfsrev: A new bullish flag pattern is brewing for a third leg up, but it is considered too early to treat this as the monthly focus—the stock price has deviated from the 50-day moving average by six times the ATR, and weekly consolidation is only in its second week. Ideally, a base should be consolidated for at least six weeks to be more solid. Nevertheless, among stocks with market capitalizations above $300 billion, Palantir is still considered to have one of the better structures.

4. $Micron Technology (MU.US)$| DRAM/NAND prices hit record highs; supply-demand imbalance supports long-term bullish thesis

Spot prices for memory chips have risen to multi-year or historical highs. Micron executives admitted that data center orders are consistently less than half fulfilled, prompting long-term bulls to increase their positions. However, technical analysts warn that if this rally proves to be parabolic, a pullback could see the 200-day moving average serve as a reference point for the bear market bottom.

***Bullish

• @ParadisLabs: DRAM spot prices are at decades-high levels, while NAND has also reached record highs, primarily due to capacity shifting toward HBM. Even looking ahead to 2027, new capacity will struggle to fill the demand gap, and the supply-demand imbalance is expected to worsen. Therefore, maintaining a long position in memory stocks is still recommended.

• @Beth_Kindig: Micron's EVP and Chief Commercial Officer stated that supply constraints for data center memory are "most prominent," noting that "often we cannot meet even half of our customers' demand."

• @amitisinvesting: Micron announced a $10 billion investment over the next decade to build a long-term R&D center in Boise, focusing on advanced memory, computing architecture, and chip packaging, with construction expected to begin in 2027. This investment is separate from the previously planned over $250 billion in US manufacturing and R&D spending.

***Bearish

• @CyclesFan: A reminder for those seeking a reference point for the bear market bottom: the answer is simple—the current 200-day moving average at approximately $571. Since the rally from April to June was too steep, the 200-day moving average is still rising rapidly; the specific level will depend on when the bear market bottom occurs.

5. $Strategy (MSTR.US)$| Bitcoin surges, yet fails to outperform Bitcoin; the premium on the leverage narrative is unraveling

Bitcoin surged this week. Theoretically, Strategy, acting as a leveraged proxy for Bitcoin, should have risen even more sharply. However, its actual performance merely "kept pace" with the rise. Skeptics argue this indicates the market is no longer buying into its leverage story. Meanwhile, the individual stock options market continues to stage eye-catching get-rich-quick tales.

***Bullish

• @smartertrader: Shared the results of a trade involving Strategy call options with a $40 strike price, turning a $16,000 principal into $383,000.

• @bluechipdaily: Since the alert issued on Wednesday evening, Strategy has risen 13%.

***Bearish

• @dampedspring: During this Bitcoin surge, Strategy, acting as a leveraged Bitcoin proxy, merely matched Bitcoin's gains. It should have outperformed but failed to do so, which is absurd. Meanwhile, it was noted that Strategy and STRC are trading below their net asset value; even with Bitcoin's sharp rally, investors are unwilling to chase higher prices.

6. $Robinhood (HOOD.US)$| Marking the best single-day performance since last September, on-chain business surpasses the $1 billion milestone

Robinhood surged 14% in a single day, recording its best daily performance since last September. Technically, this is interpreted as a momentum reversal following months of consolidation. Coupled with Robinhood Chain's total value locked (TVL) breaking the $1 billion milestone, both fundamentals and technicals showed rare simultaneous strength, with virtually no bearish sentiment heard on the day.

***Bullish

• @wallstengine: Robinhood jumped 14% in a single day, marking its best performance since last September.

• @ripster47: Long-term holdings finally broke out after months of consolidation and being stuck below $100 for an extended period.

• @StockMKTNewz: Robinhood announced that the total value locked (TVL) in Robinhood Chain has surpassed $1 billion.

• @Mr_Derivatives: Another insider accurately bought the dip, purchasing near $109 today.

• @TrendSpider: The daily chart shows the stock price has just broken through a downtrend line, trading at $109.21, with momentum indicators signaling a 'bullish reversal'.

***Bearish

• No clear bearish sentiment observed today.

7. $Amazon (AMZN.US)$| Revenue historically surpasses Walmart, but the bill for massive debt-fueled data center construction is also growing.

Historical data shows Amazon's revenue has surpassed Walmart's for the first time, marking a historic overtaking of the retail giant by an e-commerce player. However, the other side of the coin is that hyperscale cloud providers like Amazon and Meta are borrowing heavily to build data centers, pushing bond yields to their highest levels since 2007 and raising concerns about the sustainability of AI capital expenditures.

***Bullish

• @charliebilello: Twenty-five years ago, Walmart's revenue was 68 times that of Amazon; 20 years ago, 35 times; 15 years ago, 11 times; and 10 years ago, 4 times. Today, Amazon's revenue has surpassed Walmart's for the first time in history.

• @amitisinvesting: Amazon plans to invest over $2 billion in Latin America from 2027 to 2030, leveraging Prime Video to boost original content and live sports. The goal is to more than double original content production in five key markets while expanding NBA broadcasting and third-party streaming access.

***Bearish

• @jonnajarian: Hyperscale cloud providers like Amazon and Meta are borrowing between $20 billion and $100 billion to build data centers, pushing bond yields to their highest levels since 2007. If the pace of construction is forced to slow down, apart from the 'bond vigilantes,' few would likely object.

• @MarketRebelsData center construction is facing bipartisan public backlash due to noise, water consumption, and electricity usage comparable to that of 100,000 households, while most jobs created are temporary. Amazon and Meta have taken on $20 billion to $100 billion in debt, which is already pushing up interest rates. If they are forced to pause spending, semiconductor and tech stocks will be the first to suffer, even as the market hovers near historic highs.

8. $Walmart (WMT.US)$| Same-store sales growth hits a six-year low; stock plunges despite same-day announcement of Apple Pay integration

Walmart delivered a mixed earnings report: revenue and adjusted EPS both beat expectations, but U.S. same-store sales growth was the worst in over six years, and Q3 guidance missed estimates. The stock plummeted, marking its worst single-day performance since May 2022. Coincidentally, the company announced on the same day that it would integrate Apple Pay and Google Pay across all stores by year-end, providing one of the few positive notes of the day.

***Bullish

• @wallstengineWalmart will pilot contactless payments, including Apple Pay, at select stores starting August 24, with a rollout to all stores, its website, and app by year-end. The gas station channel will not follow suit until mid-2027.

• @StockMKTNewzWalmart announced that it will integrate contactless payment methods, including Apple Pay, across all its stores by year-end.

***Bearish

• @BarchartWalmart's stock price fell to its lowest level since last November.

• @amitisinvestingWalmart shares plunged 8%, marking the worst single-day performance since May 2022. Quarterly revenue reached $187.9 billion and adjusted EPS was $0.81, both beating expectations. Net profit of $6.5 billion also exceeded forecasts, and global e-commerce sales grew 23%. However, U.S. same-store sales rose only 2.6%, missing the 3.7% expectation. Q3 adjusted EPS guidance of $0.62–$0.64 also fell short of the market consensus of $0.68. Management acknowledged that consumers remain under pressure, particularly due to rising oil prices, while narrowed pricing power in the pharmacy business also dragged down sales.

9. $Broadcom (AVGO.US)$| Hundred-billion-dollar financing fuels AI chip ambitions, but credit markets sound the alarm first

Broadcom is reportedly raising nearly $100 billion in financing to support AI chip deals, while its credit default swaps (CDS) have widened to historical extremes—the equity narrative and credit narrative are moving in opposite directions. Meanwhile, Google awarded new custom AI chip orders to competitor Marvell, cracking Broadcom's long-held comfortable position in the custom chip sector for the first time.

***Bullish

• @Beth_KindigThe PEG valuation of the semiconductor sector has improved significantly over the past year, dropping from 2.6x to 1.2x overall. This reflects earnings growth outpacing stock price gains, making it one of the few sectors where valuations have fallen rather than risen.

***Bearish

• @GlobalMktObservBroadcom's 5-year credit default swap (CDS) spread has surged by 79.85 basis points compared to August 2025, hitting a record-wide level; during the same period, NVIDIA's CDS also rose by 48.90 basis points, approaching historical highs. Broadcom is negotiating financing for an off-balance-sheet special purpose vehicle (SPV) that could reach nearly $100 billion, aimed at helping clients like Anthropic purchase AI chips, with approximately $60–70 billion structured as senior secured debt. Credit investors are expressing concerns about the circular financing structures in AI infrastructure build-outs ahead of equity investors.

***Neutral

• @Balder13946731Broadcom enjoyed a comfortable position for years relying on Google's decade-long large-scale orders for Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) in the custom chip sector. Its technological depth remains opaque to outsiders, and it has never hesitated to raise prices for cloud providers, leaving long-time competitor Marvell envious. However, Google has now officially announced a shift toward collaborating with Marvell on custom AI chips, marking the first time Broadcom's comfort zone has been breached.

10. $Meta Platforms (META.US)$| Underperformed the broader market by 20% over five years; bulls call it the 'best buying opportunity,' but legal risks remain the biggest variable

Meta has been the worst performer among the 'Magnificent Seven' over the past five years. Despite having growth rates second only to NVIDIA, it has underperformed the S&P 500 by 20%, leading bulls to label current levels as a 'historical buying opportunity.' However, its market cap was briefly overtaken by Tesla, and combined with a pending lawsuit involving potential compensation in the hundreds of billions, these factors remain the primary headwinds suppressing valuation recovery.

***Bullish

• @oguzerkanMeta has been the worst performer among the 'Magnificent Seven' over the past five years. Despite having growth rates second only to NVIDIA and underperforming the S&P 500 Index by 20%, some believe current levels will be regarded by latecomers as one of the best buying opportunities in history.

• @growthrapidlyMeta is currently the most cheaply valued stock among the 'Magnificent Seven.' While legal uncertainties have created panic, the company's fundamentals remain strong, making this sell-off a buying opportunity.

• @Banana3StocksAccumulating Meta shares near the 200-week moving average 'can create millionaires,' noting that they previously applied the same logic to advocate for Microsoft around $370, which subsequently rose to $500.

***Bearish

• @garyblack00Attorneys General from California and multiple other states have jointly sued Meta, alleging that it deliberately designed Facebook and Instagram to be addictive to teenagers, improperly collected data from minors, and misled the public regarding platform safety. The claimed damages could reach up to $1.4 trillion, nearing Meta's current total market capitalization. Earlier this year, Meta and YouTube lost a similar lawsuit in California and were ordered to pay $6 million. This month, New Mexico imposed a penalty of over $940 million. This litigation is expected to weigh on the stock price until the advisory jury delivers its verdict in October.

• @WOLF_FinancialTesla's market capitalization has once again surpassed Meta's, with the former at $1.44 trillion and the latter at $1.40 trillion.

5. Event Calendar

1. Announced

• The FOMC minutes released on August 19 showed a 9-to-3 vote to keep the interest rate range unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. Three members (Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan) rarely leaned toward a 25-basis-point rate hike. This specific combination of dissent has occurred only once since 2000 — @shanaka86。

• US August Markit PMI Preliminary: Manufacturing fell to 53.2 (expected 53.9), while Services rose to 56.8 and the Composite Index climbed to 56.0, both beating expectations —@LizAnnSonders。

• The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI) six-month annualized change rate turned positive for the first time in over four years, with 9 out of 10 components rising —@LizAnnSonders。

2. Today

• Walmart reported earnings: Revenue beat expectations, but US same-store sales growth hit its worst level in over six years. Q3 guidance missed expectations, causing the stock to plunge to its worst single-day performance since May 2022 —@amitisinvesting。

• Ken Griffin confirmed that Citadel has sold approximately 80% of the risk exposure acquired from the liquidation of the "Situational Awareness" fund —@amitisinvesting、@GavinSBaker。

• Gold closed the week at $4,602.66 (+5.18%), hitting a 14-week high; Bitcoin briefly surged above $76,000 during the session —@Hedgeye、@PeterSchiff。

3. This Week

• NVIDIA leads next week's (week of August 24) earnings season, alongside major reports from Marvell, Salesforce, CrowdStrike, Intuit, and others —@IBDinvestors、@eWhispers。

• The global central bank symposium in Jackson Hole will be held next week —@ripster47。

• Anthropic is reportedly set to file its IPO documents as early as the end of this month. If the fundraising scale exceeds that of SpaceX, it would become the largest IPO in history —@amitisinvesting、@tychozzz。

4. Longer Term

• SpaceX and AST SpaceMobile are reportedly interested in bidding for 800MHz spectrum licenses (valued at approximately $6 billion). The initial bidding deadline is in early September, with the FCC planning to complete the process by November 5 —@amitisinvesting。

• AI cloud service provider Nscale plans to raise up to $3 billion in a US IPO, potentially listing as early as September; the US IPO process for fast-fashion giant Shein is also advancing —@StockMKTNewz、@MarketWatch。

• The IPO review status of Chinese memory chip manufacturer Yangtze Memory Technologies Corp (YMTC) on the STAR Market has changed to "Accepted" —@jukan05。

$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$$SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$$NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$$Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$$Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$$State Street® SPDR® Dow Jones Industrial Average® ETF Trust (DIA.US)$$Russell 2000 Index (.RUT.US)$$iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM.US)$$Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS.US)$$USD (USDindex.FX)$$U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$$XAU/USD (XAUUSD.CFD)$$SPDR Gold ETF (GLD.US)$$CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index (.VIX.US)$$CME-Bitcoin RR Futures (SEP6) (BTCmain.US)$$iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHA.US)$

This report is based solely on the real public tweets of 389 KOLs from the past 24 hours, with no fabrication; each argument can be traced back to the original posts by @authors. Trending topics reflect discussion volume, not sentiment; duplicate posts of the same news by multiple accounts have been merged. KOLs represent professional and leading viewpoints, which are not equivalent to retail investor sentiment. This is not investment advice.

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