US Stocks: A Tale of Two Extremes – Optical Communications Surge Against the Trend, Energy Becomes the Only Safe Haven

On August 17, the US stock market showed"broad-based index declines with extreme structural divergence",The three major indices were dragged down by large-cap tech stocks, falling for two consecutive days, with Meta down 3.5% and Microsoft down 3.0%. However, AI hardware (memory + optical communications) and energy sectors bucked the trend and strengthened.Optical communications represent a growth trade driven by "easing concerns over AI capital expenditure + volume ramp-up of CPO/1.6T".；Energy represents an event-driven safe-haven trade based on the "US-Iran stalemate leading to rising oil prices".

Optical Communications Sector: A "growth trade" marking the return of the AI main theme

The optical communications sector surged 3.5% in a single day, with broad-based gains across individual stocks: Marvell rose 5.55%, Corning rose 4.35%, and Applied Optoelectronics rose 3.07%.

Logic behind the rise:Anthropic's Q2 revenue exceeded $11.5 billion, a 14-fold year-on-year surge. Jensen Huang also stated that OpenAI has committed to large-scale deployment of NVIDIA AI infrastructure by 2030 (with a potential scale of up to $600 billion). Market concerns about "AI compute oversupply" have rapidly cooled. More importantly, several companies in the supply chain have disclosed that their order books are scheduled through 2027–2028. Coupled with the commercialization of CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) and the accelerated rollout of 1.6T optical modules, the narrative of memory shortages has even spilled over into optical interconnects.

Risks: The positive news from Jensen Huang and Anthropic is already "priced in," with marginal safety diminishing as prices rise. Within the sector, memory companies are the ones truly delivering earnings performance, while pure-play optical communication stocks (such as AAOI) remain deeply unprofitable, supported only by expectations. Once the memory cycle thesis is disproven, the "shortage spillover" narrative could backfire on optical interconnects. Technically, the RSI6 for related stocks generally falls within the overbought range of 75–81. If the broader market continues to face pressure from rising US Treasury yields, high-valuation growth stocks will be the first to suffer.

Energy Sector: A "Safe-Haven Ark" Driven by Events

Energy was the only sector among the S&P 500's eleven major sectorsto close higheron the day: Oil & Gas rose 0.99%, Natural Gas rose 1.81%, and Exxon Mobil rose 0.85%

Logic behind the rally:The 60-day negotiation window for the US-Iran memorandum of understanding expired on August 17. With serious disagreements over the Strait of Hormuz leading to a stalemate, Trump stated he "does not seek an extension," while Iran firmly declared it was "prepared to escalate the situation." Supply concerns instantly pushed oil prices higher,with WTI rising 2.55% to $84.50 per barrel and Brent climbing 2.65% to $90.87 per barrel. The rise in oil prices also transmitted pressure to US Treasuries,The 30-year Treasury yield rose to 5.31%, hitting a new high since 2007.。

Risk:This rally is 100% driven by geopolitical events. Once signs of reconciliation between the US and Iran emerge, oil prices will drop rapidly, leading to a pullback in energy stocks. More subtly, the inflation expectations fueled by rising oil prices are pushing up US Treasury yields, which in turn suppresses overall market valuations. After yields break through 5.31%, the "hedging bonus" of energy stocks resembles a seesaw rather than a dual rise.

Summary

Looking at optical communications and energy together reveals that they are two sides of the same market mirror: one represents the repriced "faith in growth," while the other reflects "geopolitical panic" that could reverse at any moment. The rise in optical communications is built on the market's belief in the "AI narrative," whereas the rise in energy is predicated on the assumption that "the Middle East will not reach a reconciliation anytime soon." The former fears its logic being disproven, while the latter fears its logic playing out.

For retail investors, the key is not to chase the strongest performers, but to first clarify: what you are betting on,is it solid industrial trends, or fragile sentiment and event-driven shocks?

Disclaimer:The above content is based on public data and quantitative analysis and is for reference only; it does not constitute investment advice. The market carries risks, so invest with caution. Any investment decision should be made independently based on personal risk tolerance, financial status, and investment objectives, consulting licensed professional institutions when necessary. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

55K Views