US Stocks Last Week: Three Key Takeaways

1️⃣ Inflation cools, market resumes pricing in "rate cut expectations"

July CPI year-on-year declined to 3.4%, while PPI remained flat month-on-month. Inflationary pressures have eased, significantly reducing market concerns about near-term rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, and the S&P 500 hit another record closing high.

2️⃣ Consumption data weakened, sparking market concerns over an "economic slowdown"

US retail sales for July unexpectedly fell on Friday, compounded by weakening consumer confidence. The market focus has shifted from "inflation" to economic growth, leading to a slight pullback in US stocks from their highs on Friday.

3️⃣ The AI technology theme remains strong, with semiconductors still being the key focus of capital flows

Last week, the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% and the Nasdaq gained roughly 0.1%. Tech stocks overall maintained their strength, but rising oil prices and the 10-year US Treasury yield approaching 4.7% imply that high-valuation tech stocks still face short-term pressure.

What are the key highlights to watch this week?

① Wednesday: Release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes for July

This is the most important macroeconomic event of the week, with a focus on the Fed's internal views oninflation, interest rates, and policy decisions for SeptemberWhat is the actual sentiment?

2. Tuesday–Thursday: Earnings reports from retail giants

Home Depot, Lowe's, Target, TJX, Walmart, and others will release their earnings sequentially. The key focus is to assess the true strength of US consumers.

3. Friday: August PMI

This is a crucial data point for determining whether the US economy continues to slow down. If the PMI shows significant weakness, the market may continue to price in rate cut expectations; if the economy remains robust, the Federal Reserve may maintain its cautious stance.

Henry’s One-Sentence Summary

Last week saw "cooling inflation → stock market hitting new highs," while this week we need to watch whether the narrative of "economic slowdown → rate cut expectations" can continue to gain momentum.

However, the biggest issue is now quite obvious:Indices are already at high levels, and tech stocks are crowded. While the bullish direction remains intact, avoid blindly chasing highs.

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