August 13 (Wednesday) US Pre-Market: AI Validation Phase, Divergence Widens

I. Major Event: July CPI Data (released Tuesday evening)

Headline CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year, and Core CPI rose 2.5% year-over-year, fully in line with expectations.

1. The decline in CPI, combined with the disappointing non-farm payrolls report, has cooled market expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes and increased the probability of rate cuts, which is broadly bullish for risk assets.

2. Note a medium-term risk: AI-related inflation. The surge in investment in AI computing infrastructure could push up inflation in certain service sectors over the next 1–2 quarters, a variable worth monitoring in the medium term.

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II. Individual Stock Analysis

1. NVIDIA (NVDA) – Good news priced in; short-term consolidation

Last week, it announced a $2 billion investment in Lancium (potentially increasing to $3 billion) to secure scarce power resources for AI data centers. Meanwhile, it joined forces with six major asset management giants (including Blackstone, BlackRock, and Goldman Sachs) to create a $500 billion AI computing financing platform. Six Wall Street institutions signed agreements to provide financing to NVIDIA’s customers, establishing revolving credit support.

However, the stock price has been volatile recently for two reasons: First, profit-taking occurred after last Friday’s sharp rally as the good news was priced in. Second, while the equity stake in a power company is positive, it also indirectly highlights that NVIDIA’s power bottlenecks are more severe than anticipated.

Technical Analysis: The 214–216 range serves as gap support. If the price fails to break above 225, watch for a potential gap fill. The 200–205 zone offers better risk-reward value, representing a balanced position between risk and return. I reduced my position by 25% at 215 and currently feel relaxed about my holdings—rising prices are fine, but falling prices are even better as they allow for additional buying.

2. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) – Waiting is safer than chasing highs

Pricing power in the AI supply chain remains solid, but do not chase the current highs. The trend chart has already shown a nine-day rally.

Support Zone 1 (small position entry): 380–390. This is a clear historical support level; every decline to this area has triggered a rebound.

Support Zone 2 (higher margin of safety): 350, near the gap.

Heavy resistance lies around 430.

Personal strategy: Observe if 430 holds firmly, then establish a small starter position with 20% allocation. Increase the position size near 380 or 350.

3. Micron (MU) – Wait for better peace of mind

The fundamental logic remains unchanged: HBM demand is highly certain, and production capacity is booked through next year.

Technical analysis: Currently trading around 910, with 935 as the recent high and 960 as resistance. A doji candlestick has appeared; exercise caution and avoid chasing highs.

Trading advice: Reduce positions in batches at 850, 800, and 750. For existing holdings, use one-third of the position for swing trading (selling high and buying low). The medium-to-long-term thesis remains intact.

4. Microsoft (MSFT) – Bullish long-term, overbought in the short term

Reports indicate plans to place an order with Taiwan Semiconductor for over 300,000 wafers of next-generation AI chips (expected to be the 300 series), with delivery scheduled for 2027. The core rationale for in-house chip production is to reduce dependence on NVIDIA, customize solutions to specific needs, and enhance operational efficiency, representing a long-term strategy to widen the economic moat.

However, the stock price has broken through the key $500 level. Daily charts show overbought conditions combined with bearish divergence signals. Trading volume has remained low for several days as the price consolidates at highs, with buyers adopting a wait-and-see approach.

Trading Recommendation: Wait for a pullback to the $466–$475 gap before adding positions. The $400–$430 gap below represents an ideal long-term entry zone. While the stock is likely to stabilize above $500 eventually, current levels are not favorable for adding to positions.

5. Meta (META) – Strategic positioning in the lightweight AI sector

The company released a lightweight AI model focusing on "low cost, speed, and customizability," a strategy distinctly different from OpenAI's pursuit of scale. This positions Meta favorably in the niche segment where enterprises are willing to pay for "low-cost operation."

Technical Analysis: Monitor the $580–$600 range. A break below $580 could lead to a decline toward $540–$560, with levels below $540 considered a comfortable zone for adding positions.

Upside breakouts may lack sustained momentum, making the stock suitable for swing trading (selling high and buying low). Exercise restraint overall; there is no need to rush.

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III. Trading Discipline Reminders

• Patience brings peace of mind: Consider entering Micron (MU) below $800 and Taiwan Semiconductor below $380–$390.

- Avoid chasing highs: Do not buy Microsoft (MSFT) above $500; do not take heavy positions in NVIDIA (NVDA) between $214–$216 until support is confirmed.

- Position management: Use small test positions for stocks at high levels; add to positions in tranches at support levels; avoid going all-in at once.

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⚠️ The above is merely a pre-market summary and does not constitute investment advice. Market risks exist; investors must exercise independent judgment.

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