Market Summary July 20, 2026

Major Indices:S&P 500: down 0.19% to close at 7,443.28; Dow Jones Industrial Average: down 0.59% to close at 51,839.26; Nasdaq 100: up 0.04% to close at 28,604.23.

U.S. Stocks:Apple: down 2.14% to close at $326.59; Tesla: down 2.96% to close at $369.57; NVIDIA: up 0.23% to close at $203.28.

Asian indices since their respective closing:Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (H-shares): down 13 points to close at 8,374 (-0.16%); Hang Seng Index: down 53 points to close at 25,099 (-0.21%); FTSE China A50 Index: up 4 points to close at 14,831 (+0.03%)

Interest Rates and Expectations:U.S. 10-year Treasury yield: rose 4 basis points to 4.59%; U.S. 2-year Treasury yield: rose 2 basis points to 4.20%

Rate hike expectations remained largely unchanged: markets currently price in only a 16% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the FOMC meeting on July 29; for the September 16 meeting, there is a 64% probability priced in for at least a 25-basis-point hike. Looking ahead to year-end 2026: markets imply a 41% chance of at least two rate hikes by then. For year-end 2027: the most common expectation (32%) is for one rate hike (25 basis points); markets also price in a 17% probability of no change or even rate cuts, and a 21% probability of cumulative hikes of 75 basis points or more.

Overseas Commodities:Crude oil futures: up 0.82%, closing at $83.17; natural gas futures: down 2.30%, closing at $2.844; silver futures: up 0.42%, closing at $56.57; gold futures: down 0.19%, closing at $4,011.3

Volatility:VIX spot: closed at 18.65 (-0.12 points); VIX futures (August contract): closed at 19.05 (-0.25 points).

Market Summary:

Markets traded relatively calmly on Monday following a bout of panic over the sustainability of artificial intelligence (AI) hype.

This calm was somewhat unexpected, as tensions between Iran and the United States escalated further over the weekend, leading to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and pushing oil prices higher once again. The Houthi rebels—Tehran’s proxies in Yemen—also issued threats to shut down the Red Sea, another critical artery for Middle Eastern oil exports, exacerbating strains in energy markets.

Despite heated rhetoric between Tehran and Washington, traders remained hopeful about rumors that another ceasefire agreement is being negotiated, keeping market sentiment relatively relaxed.

The most significant corporate news on Monday was that multiple U.S. states filed objections and legal challenges against the proposed merger between Paramount and Warner Brothers. A judge has temporarily blocked the deal. If completed, the merger would create a massive media empire leaning toward Trump and the Republican Party, drawing intense scrutiny from the outset.

The British pound fell against the U.S. dollar as newly appointed UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham officially took residence at 10 Downing Street.

During overnight trading, Hong Kong and mainland China equity index futures showed little change compared to their closing levels from the previous regular trading session.

[Note: Nothing herein constitutes an offer or solicitation to purchase securities.]

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Data as of 4:00 PM Chicago time on July 20, 2026, sourced from Bloomberg (at-the-money volatility data provided by True Partner).

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