Wallsh speech incoming: What's next for US stocks, Bitcoin, and gold?

惠理投資

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CPI data collides head-on with Waller’s Congressional debut—gold faces its 'make-or-break 90 minutes'

📉 Gold prices crashed again—4100 broke without hesitation

On July 13, international gold prices plunged again—spot gold fell below the $4,100/oz mark, trading at $4,059.4/oz, down 1.46% on the day. COMEX gold futures settled at $4,064.6/oz, down 1.19%. Spot silver dropped more than 2% on the day.

From the year-to-date high of $5,594.77, gold has now fallen over 25%. It posted a single-month decline of 10.45% in June—the steepest monthly drop since October 2008.

Over the weekend, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz escalated once again—Iran announced the strait was temporarily impassable and halted issuing transit permits. Both WTI and Brent crude surged more than 4%, with Brent approaching $80 per barrel. The oil price spike lifted inflation expectations, reinforcing market bets that the Fed will keep rates high—or even hike further—weighing heavily on gold.

Geopolitical conflict should normally support gold—but this time, oil rewrote the script.

📅 Tomorrow, gold will face its most critical 90 minutes of 2026

At 8:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday, July 14 (8:30 p.m. Beijing time), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release June CPI data.

Ninety minutes later—at 10:00 a.m. ET (10:00 p.m. Beijing time)—Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will testify before the House Financial Services Committee for the first time as chair, delivering the semiannual Monetary Policy Report.

On Wednesday, July 15—after the release of PPI data—Warsh will appear again to testify before the Senate Banking Committee.

Inflation data and policy signals are landing on the same day, one right after the other—this isn’t just another ‘data week.’ It’s gold market’s ‘double verification moment.’

📊 CPI Data: Market Expects 'Cooling,' But Core Inflation Remains Stubborn

Markets widely expect that after the sharp price increases from March to May, the year-over-year CPI growth in June will ease from 4.2% in May to 3.8%, and could even post its first month-on-month decline since the pandemic began in 2020.

However, core CPI is still expected to remain elevated at 2.8%–2.9% year-over-year—stripping out volatile energy prices, the underlying inflation trend remains 'hot.'

Forecasts among institutions show notable divergence:

TD Securities expects headline CPI to decline by 0.22% month-over-month, primarily driven by a 10% drop in gasoline prices.

Bank of America Securities forecasts core CPI to rise by 0.28% month-over-month.

Goldman Sachs is relatively optimistic, projecting core CPI to increase by just 0.17% month-over-month.

Citi expects core CPI year-over-year to ease from 2.9% to 2.5%.

💬 Waller: Hawk or Dove? Markets Are Trying to Solve a Riddle

Waller has been in office for over a month and has already participated in one FOMC meeting, yet investors are still speculating whether his policy stance leans dovish or hawkish—the answer will become clear tomorrow.

🔮 Four Scenarios, Four Fates

According to Gate’s analysis, the key uncertainty for gold prices lies in the combination of CPI data and Waller’s comments:

Scenario 1: Cooling CPI + Dovish Waller (Most Bullish for Gold)

→ Falling inflation and fading rate hike expectations could confirm a short-term bottom for gold prices

Scenario 2: Cooling CPI + Hawkish Waller (Conflicting Signals, Heightened Volatility)

→ Conflicting data and rhetoric plunge markets into confusion, driving volatility sharply higher

Scenario 3: Hot CPI + Hawkish Waller (Worst-Case Scenario for Gold)

→ Dual headwinds could once again break through the $4,000 support level

Scenario 4: Hot CPI + Dovish Waller (Biggest Risk for the Dollar)

→ Persistently high inflation without the Fed Chair signaling rate hikes pressures the dollar and gives gold some breathing room

🏦 What do institutions think? — They’re so divided they’re practically fighting

Bearish camp:

Analysts at StoneX Group stated bluntly that gold’s current price action 'does indeed look quite broken.' If it breaks below recent lows, it could slide further toward the $3,800–$3,600 range.

The head of market research at Capital.com believes gold still lacks clear upward momentum.

HSBC recently lowered its forecast for the average gold price in 2026 to around $4,560.

Bullish camp:

Philip Streible, Chief Market Strategist at Blue Line Futures, believes that weak inflation data could confirm gold has already established a near-term bottom. He noted that although short-term downside risks remain, gold is already offering some value at current levels.

Robert Minter, Head of Investment Strategy at abrdn Standard Investments, said the market is overemphasizing Waller’s hawkish comments while underestimating structural factors supporting gold. Many institutional clients he speaks with 'don’t believe Waller is truly hawkish or that rate hikes are imminent.' In his view, Waller is currently more focused on building anti-inflation credibility than preparing for an aggressive hiking cycle.

Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, maintains that the Federal Reserve will not raise rates this year and that easing inflation pressures in the coming months could shift the narrative around rate hikes.

A CICC research report noted that the current gold price of around $4,000 has already fully priced in room for three to four rate hikes—more than what is reflected in interest rate futures markets. Once falling oil prices feed through into U.S. short-term inflation data, gold’s pricing of rate hike expectations could be revised downward.

The latest Kitco survey shows that among Wall Street analysts, the proportions of bullish, bearish, and neutral views are each close to one-third; among retail investors, bullish sentiment has dropped to 42%, while bearish sentiment stands at 38%—indicating no clear market consensus has yet emerged.

📊 Money is fleeing, but someone is stepping in

According to data from the World Gold Council, gold ETFs saw significant outflows in June, totaling 74.3 tonnes, worth nearly USD 9 billion.

Since gold prices hit a record high of nearly USD 5,600 in January, investors have withdrawn nearly USD 18 billion from gold ETFs tracked by Bloomberg.

However, as of the end of June, China’s gold reserves reached 75.44 million troy ounces, an increase of 480,000 troy ounces from the end of May. This marks the 20th consecutive month of accumulation. The monthly addition of 480,000 troy ounces is the largest since November 2024, and the scale of purchases has expanded for the fourth consecutive month.

🤔 Where will gold head after tomorrow?

The 90 minutes tomorrow morning could be the most critical 90 minutes for the gold market in the second half of 2026. Until CPI data is released and Waller speaks, all forecasts remain mere speculation.

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Data sources: Spot/futures prices from 21st Century Business Herald (July 13); CPI forecasts from Cailian Press, NAI500, FX168, and Gate (July 11–13); Waller’s comments from NAI500 (July 1); institutional views from FX168, NAI500, and East Money (July 11–12); ETF fund flows from the World Gold Council, Bloomberg, and Wind (June–July 10).

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