Cooling inflation plus Walsh's hawkish remarks! How will the Fed act?
Summary: U.S. stocks staged a mild rebound on Monday from Friday’s sharp selloff. The S&P 500 rose 0.30%, the Nasdaq gained 0.86%, the Dow Jones fell 0.16%, and the Russell 2000 advanced 0.77%. The Nasdaq and small caps outperformed, while the Dow lagged, indicating that market recovery remains focused on growth and high-beta segments. The VIX dropped to 18.92, down 12.04% on the day, reflecting a clear cooling of panic sentiment, though markets have not fully returned to a relaxed state. The key trading themes on the day were Iran and Israel announcing a pause in mutual attacks, coupled with reports that Google placed a large order with Intel, sparking a rebound in chip and tech stocks. Tech and semiconductors led gains, with the semiconductor ETF SMH up 5.00% and DRAM stocks surging 8.48%, while utilities and real estate underperformed. In broader asset classes, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose 0.35%, gold gained 0.04%, crude oil climbed 1.14%, Bitcoin rose 0.91%, and the U.S. Dollar Index slipped 0.07%.
I. Major Events
1. Iran and Israel announced a pause in mutual attacks
Following appeals from Trump, both Iran and Israel announced a halt to mutual attacks. This was Monday’s clearest new geopolitical development, prompting markets to immediately reduce Middle East risk premiums. The VIX declined significantly, creating room for tech and semiconductor stocks to recover, while oil prices remained in a high-level consolidation range.
2. Google reportedly placed a large TPU order with Intel
Reports indicated that Google, a subsidiary of Alphabet, has placed an order with Intel to produce over 3 million TPUs by 2028. This news reinforced the view that demand for AI infrastructure remains robust and provided a catalyst for the chip sector—which had been heavily sold off on Friday—to rebound. Semiconductor and AI memory-related stocks saw a notable recovery as a result.
3. Apple unveiled Siri AI at WWDC
Apple officially launched its new Siri AI at WWDC, featuring enhanced conversational capabilities, on-screen understanding, and the ability to pull information from web pages. This move represents a critical step for Apple in filling the gap in its AI narrative, yet the stock closed lower, indicating the market is still awaiting clearer signs of commercial monetization. The tech sector's rebound was driven more by semiconductor-related stocks than by Apple itself.
II. Major Trends
From an intraday perspective, Monday’s gains were not broad-based but focused on growth and high-beta sectors. The Nasdaq rose 0.86%, and the Russell 2000 gained 0.77%, both significantly outperforming the S&P 500’s 0.30% increase, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.16%. Capital flowed back first into the tech and small-cap names that had suffered the steepest losses on Friday.
Looking at the three-month horizon, the growth style remains the dominant intermediate-term theme. QQQ is up 19.55% over three months, substantially outpacing DIA’s 7.42% gain; SPYG has risen 15.03%, continuing to outperform SPYV’s 4.95% increase. Friday’s sharp sell-off did not alter the medium-term structure—it merely amplified short-term volatility.
In terms of breadth, the market recovery remains concentrated. SPY is up 10.24% over three months, while RSP has gained only 5.22%. For the broader market to achieve genuine stability, we need to see greater participation from non-tech sectors going forward.
III. Market Sentiment
The VIX closed at 18.92, down 12.04% on the day, signaling a partial easing of the pronounced risk-off sentiment seen on Friday. The CNN Fear & Greed Index stood at 40, slightly down from the previous session’s 42, reflecting continued caution—far from a clear sign of sentiment recovery.
Options markets still reflect strong demand for downside protection. The CBOE total put/call ratio stood at 0.79, with the index options put/call ratio at 1.20 and the equity options put/call ratio at 0.62. Risk appetite is recovering at the individual stock level, but protective positioning remains elevated on the index side, indicating the market hasn’t fully let its guard down.
IV. Market Scan
1. Index ETFs:On Monday, the four major indices’ corresponding ETFs showed divergent performance. The Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) led the pack, followed closely by the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), while the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) posted modest gains and the Dow Jones ETF (DIA) edged slightly lower. This pattern confirms that capital prioritized rotating back into growth and high-beta segments, with traditional large-cap names lagging in their recovery.
2. Sector Performance:Among sectors, Technology (XLK) surged 2.15%, leading all groups, followed by Energy (XLE) up 1.14%. Utilities (XLU) fell 1.87%, Real Estate (XLRE) dropped 1.50%, and Materials (XLB) declined 1.32%. Within sub-sectors, DRAM stocks jumped 8.48%, Semiconductors (SMH) rose 5.00%, and Oil Services (OIH) gained 3.64%. Both AI memory and optical communication segments showed signs of recovery, suggesting capital returned first to the most heavily sold-off parts of the tech supply chain.
3. The Magnificent Seven Tech Stocks:Within the Magnificent Seven, Tesla (TSLA) led gains with a 4.59% rise, while Apple (AAPL) lagged, falling 1.89%. Despite unveiling Siri AI, Apple’s stock failed to receive positive feedback from the market, which preferred to chase semiconductor and high-beta tech names instead.
4. U.S.-Listed Chinese Stocks:U.S.-listed Chinese stocks continued to diverge. Bilibili rose 2.86%, while PDD Holdings fell 2.88% and Baidu declined 2.10%. This indicates that capital is not flowing back broadly into Chinese equities; high elasticity and event-driven factors remain dominant.
5. Cryptocurrencies:Bitcoin rose 0.91%, with highly elastic crypto-related stocks rebounding more sharply. MARA surged 11.85%, MSTR gained 5.61%, and CRCL climbed 2.80%. When risk appetite improves, this segment exhibits the fastest release of upside elasticity.
$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ $NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ $State Street® SPDR® Dow Jones Industrial Average® ETF Trust (DIA.US)$ $Russell 2000 Index (.RUT.US)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM.US)$ $Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS.US)$ $USD (USDindex.FX)$ $U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$ $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ $XAU/USD (XAUUSD.CFD)$ $SPDR Gold ETF (GLD.US)$ $CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index (.VIX.US)$ $CME-Bitcoin RR Futures (JUL6) (BTCmain.US)$ $iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHA.US)$ $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ $Apple (AAPL.US)$
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