Hundred-Dollar Options Opportunity Pool | US-Iran Tensions Ease, Pressuring Oil Prices? Trump Endorses Micron—Options Whales Already In!

Hello fellow investors, welcome to this week’s 'Playing Options with $100' opportunity pool! Each week we focus on clear market themes and highlight noteworthy low-barrier options opportunities. We don’t talk about once-in-a-lifetime windfalls; instead, we explain the rationale, whether it’s worth watching, and where the risks lie.

Market Focus This Week

Yesterday (Monday) was Memorial Day in the U.S. and Buddha’s Birthday in Hong Kong, resulting in simultaneous market holidays in both regions. Today, Tuesday, marks the first trading day of the week—But the past "quiet weekend" was anything but quiet, as two major pieces of news broke during the holiday:

First development: Renewed signs of easing tensions in U.S.-Iran negotiations are weighing on oil prices.Shortly after fears of a collapsed U.S.-Iran negotiation and surging oil prices began to subside, fresh reports indicate both sides are again signaling de-escalation. If the Strait of Hormuz remains open and Iranian crude returns to global markets as anticipated, global oil supply could see a significant increase—directly pressuring prices downward. ETFs tracking crude oil futures USOhave become low-barrier instruments for shorting oil prices this week.

Second development: Trump publicly endorsed Micron Technology (MU), with options market data suggesting major players may have positioned early.Trump openly backed Micron Technology, while options market data shows that large volumes of deep out-of-the-money call options were purchased before the announcement—strike prices ranging from $750 to $1,400, with expirations concentrated in July 2026 and January 2027.With the president personally endorsing the stock and big players already positioning ahead of time, should you follow? And if so, how?

Based on these two key developments, we’re watching two specific tickers this week.

Target One: $United States Oil Fund LP (USO.US)$ — With U.S.-Iran tensions easing, is oil’s "gravitational pull" back?

The biggest geopolitical news this weekend:A U.S.-Iran deal is about to be officially announced, and the Strait of Hormuz will soon reopen to shipping.

According to U.S. officials, the upcoming U.S.-Iran agreement includes a 60-day extension of the ceasefire, during whichthe Strait of Hormuz will resume normal navigation, allowing Iran to export oil freely,while both sides simultaneously begin negotiations on limiting Iran’s nuclear program.

Although the process has not been smooth—Iran’s Revolutionary Guard previously briefly reopened the strait “as a goodwill gesture,” allowing several oil and gas tankers to pass through before closing it again—the latest 60-day ceasefire agreement, if implemented, suggests both sides have found a framework for mutual concessions:Iran reopens the strait and resumes normal oil exports; the U.S. eases sanctions and advances nuclear talks.。

In one sentence: Once the Strait of Hormuz reopens, the largest “geopolitical premium” underpinning global oil prices will vanish.

What is USO? USO (United States Oil Fund) is one of the world’s largest crude oil ETFs, tracking the price of near-month WTI crude oil futures. You can think of it as a tool to “buy or sell oil with one click.”Buying puts on USO is a bet that oil prices will fall.

(The design images displayed on the screen are for demonstration purposes only and do not constitute any investment advice or guarantee; market conditions fluctuate frequently, and the option prices shown in the illustration do not represent actual situations. The filtering criterion is options with a unit price around 1 dollar.)

Bearish rationale (i.e., conditions under which USO declines and puts profit):

During the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, global oil and gas supply was artificially constrained by nearly 20%. Once navigation resumes, this suppressed supply will quickly return to the market. This isn’t an 'incremental addition'—it’s a 'return to normal.' The geopolitical risk premium previously priced into the market due to the blockade will be rapidly erased once the resumption of shipping is confirmed.

A draft agreement circulating in the market mentions that Iran would be allowed to resume normal oil exports. Iran’s daily production capacity is approximately 4 million barrels, most of which has been unable to reach international markets due to sanctions and the blockade. Even if exports initially rebound by only 1–2 million barrels per day, it would represent a material bearish factor for global supply.

The brief reopening has already demonstrated that resuming navigation is feasible.Last week, Iran briefly reopened the strait, and a group of vessels swiftly passed through, indicating that shipping infrastructure remains intact. Once political conditions are met, navigation can be restored relatively quickly. This reduces the technical risk that 'even if an agreement is signed, it cannot be implemented.'

Bullish risks (i.e., scenarios where USO rises and puts incur losses):

The most realistic risk is repeated setbacks in the negotiation process, which has already occurred multiple times over the past few months.Just last week, Iran demonstrated a 'reopen-then-reclose' scenario. If negotiations collapse over details or if the U.S. continues to seize Iranian vessels, the strait could be blocked again—triggering a sharp oil price rebound.

Additionally, from a medium- to long-term perspective, if oil prices plunge due to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia, could urgently announce deeper production cuts to defend prices. Historically, such 'price defense actions' have successfully prevented oil prices from falling below key support levels on multiple occasions.

USO tracks the near-month futures contract and must 'roll' into the next contract every month. In a backwardated futures curve environment, this rolling generates gains, causing USO to outperform the WTI futures themselves.However, this issue has a relatively minor impact on short-term (1–2 week) put holdings.

If you're uncertain about the term structure, refer to this article from Niu Niu Classroom:Hormuz, Term Structure, and USO: How to Navigate the Energy Storm

Target Two: $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ —— Presidential endorsement + institutional accumulation: the storage leader's 'policy dividend'

During the holiday period, news broke across Wall Street:Trump publicly endorsed Micron Technology.This isn't Trump's first time 'promoting a stock'—but each time he publicly backs a company, markets react sharply. What makes this instance particularly noteworthy is:Options market anomalies appeared before the public announcement.

Prior to Trump's public statement, a large volume of deep out-of-the-money call options (OTM Calls) had already been purchased, with strike prices ranging from $750 to $1,400 and expirations concentrated in July 2026 and January 2027.The most aggressive trade among them: a $1,400 strike price, expiring in January 2027。

Imagine this: someone was willing to spend real money to buy a 'lottery ticket' betting that MU would rise to $1,400 within eight months—and this happened before the president made any public statement. What does this imply? Either someone had advance knowledge, or someone is extremely bullish on MU’s long-term outlook. In either case, when presidential endorsement coincides with heavyweight institutional buying, this stock at least deserves a serious look.

MU’s share price is already high, and its 2x leveraged ETFs—after consecutive days of sharp gains—have also reached levels of $400–$500 per share. At-the-money (ATM) option premiums will be very expensive and may not suit traders with only a few hundred dollars to deploy. Consider call options with strike prices 5%–8% above the current share price and expiring in 2–3 weeks—the premium might fall in the range of $1–$2.50 per contract.This is essentially a bet on the short-term momentum driven by the 'Trump effect' converging with the AI memory demand narrative to push prices higher. If the stock gaps up more than 5% at today’s open, exercise extreme caution when chasing—it may already be near the end of the initial reaction wave.

But the question is —MU’s underlying stock is simply too expensive right now. With the share price above $700, an at-the-money call can easily cost several thousand dollars per contract, and even the 2x leveraged ETFs are trading around $400–$500 per share—far out of reach for traders with only a few hundred dollars.

What’s the solution? The only answer: deep out-of-the-money calls (Deep OTM Calls)—but you must move fast.

Why are they so cheap? The market assigns a very low probability to MU reaching that strike price by expiration, so it prices these options like cheap lottery tickets. Deep OTM calls consist purely of time value—they have no intrinsic value to support them. With each passing day, even if MU doesn’t drop, your call loses value. Time decay accelerates as expiration approaches, and in the final week, the option’s value essentially evaporates day by day.

This is a short-term, event-driven 'lottery ticket'—betting on a Trump-induced rally combined with a post-holiday pulse of buying on the first trading day back. If it moves up, take profits immediately—never hold on greedily.

Bullish logic:

"The Trump effect" has short-term explosive power. Regardless of how you view the rationale behind Trump's stock endorsements, historical data shows that whenever he publicly backs a stock, it typically sees a noticeable price increase over the next one to three trading days—driven by retail investor buying, amplified media coverage, and short-covering. Today is the first trading day after the holiday, and the market hasn’t yet fully 'digested' this news; the opening bell may mark the first reaction window.

Signaling from options whales.Buying large volumes of deep out-of-the-money calls isn't a decision typical retail investors make—while the premium per contract is low, establishing a meaningful position requires millions, even tens of millions, of dollars. When 'smart money' had already positioned itself before the presidential endorsement, it at least suggests a segment of the market is betting Micron Technology’s long-term upside extends far beyond its current price.

Downside risks:

Presidential stock endorsements can indeed lift prices in the short term, but their medium- to long-term performance is mixed. Some previously endorsed stocks, after an initial rally, actually declined as the market treated the news as 'sell the rumor, buy the fact.' If you're holding short-dated calls, take profits decisively during the initial surge—don’t get greedy.

The whales’ options activity might be hedging rather than directional betting.The calls we’re seeing with strike prices between $750 and $1,400 aren’t necessarily pure long bets—they could also be part of a large fund’s hedging strategy (for example, shorting the underlying stock while buying deep out-of-the-money calls to retain upside exposure).

It’s important to note this is the riskiest, most lottery-like trade among all available plays. The core strategy boils down to eight words:Bet small, exit fast—never hold on too long. If Micron Technology gaps up more than 5% at today’s open, don’t chase. Wait for an intraday pullback before considering entry, or simply skip it altogether.The ideal entry scenario is if Micron Technology opens modestly higher by 1%–2% and then continues strengthening steadily.

Important Reminder

Today is the first trading day after the holiday. U.S. markets were closed on Monday for Memorial Day, so the combined news flow from the entire weekend plus Monday will need to be digested all at once today. Volatility may be intense during the first 30 minutes of trading. It’s advisable to observe the market's opening direction before deciding whether to enter—avoid placing market orders blindly.

The underlying logics of these two positions are entirely different. The USO put is a macro trade based on the thesis that 'easing geopolitical tensions → increased supply → falling oil prices,' while the MU call is an event-driven trade fueled by 'presidential endorsement + AI demand.' The two have virtually no correlation—which naturally provides diversification.

News accumulated over the holiday is being released en masse today; the market’s direction right after the open will set the tone for the week. Manage your positions carefully and take profits when appropriate—we’ll see you in the recap.

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