Has the rebound opportunity arrived? Hong Kong stocks welcome a strong start in May

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[Weekly Market Insights] FOMC divisions hit a 30-year high; can tech giants' earnings reports support the market at these elevated levels?

Guide to this week's strategies for the US and Hong Kong markets:

Record 30-year high in FOMC divisions coincides with escalating US-Iran tensions. How to respond after oil prices break above $100?

The Political Bureau sets the tone for domestic demand-led growth. Where are the structural recovery opportunities in Hong Kong stocks?

[Live Broadcast Reservation] May 4th, 16:30. Futu's Chief Investment Research Expert will join you to review this week's market outlook. The earnings reports of the four major cloud giants will be released on the same day. How to seize the core opportunities during the AI cloud acceptance period!

Earnings reports of the four major cloud giants released on the same day, how to seize the core opportunities during the AI cloud acceptance phase

[I. Macroeconomic Observations]

1.1 International Macroeconomic:

FOMC keeps interest rates unchanged but divisions hit a 30-year high; how to price oil as US-Iran tensions escalate and prices break above $100?

The Federal Reserve unanimously decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%, in line with market expectations. However, the voting result was 8 to 4, the largest division since 1992, reflecting stronger forward guidance toward easing. Powell stated he will continue serving as a board member until legal challenges are resolved. The institutional reforms planned by Warsh after taking office will face significant resistance, and uncertainty over short-term policy direction will continue to weigh on rate cut expectations.Powell made it clear that the current oil price level will not lead to a rate hike, but if oil prices continue to rise, theoretically, it could be considered as early as the next meeting.

The US-Iran conflict has escalated further, with the US attempting to impose"a long-term maritime blockade combined with military strike deterrence"to force Iran into concessions. In response, Iran countered with"blockading the strait and issuing forceful warnings"in a hardline stance, pushing oil prices back above $100. In early May, Iran submitted a new negotiation proposal, which temporarily supported risk appetite in the short term. However, as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, inflationary pressures will not truly dissipate, and energy shocks remain within the pricing framework.

Implied Fed Rate Cut Probability Source: Fed Watch 2026-04-30

Crude Oil Price Source: Trading Economics 2026-04-30

1.2 Domestic Macroeconomics:

Can the policy combination of maintaining expansion in the manufacturing PMI and emphasizing domestic demand at the Politburo level support the economy?

The official manufacturing PMI for April was 50.3, while the Caixin manufacturing PMI stood at 52.2, with overseas stockpiling demand driving continued expansion in the manufacturing sector. High-tech manufacturing (52.2%) and equipment manufacturing (51.8%) continued to lead. However, the non-manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.4, with weaker sentiment observed in terminal consumption-related industries such as wholesale, retail, and residential services.Reflecting insufficient demand due to incomplete recovery in residents' income expectations。

Shenzhen has relaxed purchase restrictions, allowing local households in the core area to buy up to three properties and non-local households to purchase up to twoThe interest rate for first-home provident fund loans is only 2.6%，Forming a supportive pattern where rental yield is higher than the provident fund loan rate

Latest Shenzhen housing policy Source: FUTU Compiled on April 30, 2026

The Central Political Bureau meeting highlighted the deepening impact of external conditionsThe fiscal deficit ratio is planned at 4%Ultra-long-term special government bonds are proposed for issuanceLocal governments' special bonds amount to 4.4 trillion yuan，An additional 800 billion yuan in new policy-based financial instrumentsThe policy direction of adhering to domestic demand leadership and building a strong domestic market is clear.

Source: National Bureau of Statistics April 30, 2026

[Section Two: Market Views]

2.1 US Stock Market

S&P rose 0.91%, Nasdaq rose 1.12%. Can the leading tech companies' earnings reports continue to support high levels?

$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ Up 0.91% for the entire week.$NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$Up 1.12%, the market remains optimistic around the earnings reports of the seven giants. On April 28, there was profit-taking due to the pullback in the AI supply chain and rising oil prices, but$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ 、$Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ 、$Amazon (AMZN.US)$ 、$Apple (AAPL.US)$Supported by earnings, the Nasdaq has rebounded consecutively. The market continues to downplay the impact of the deadlock in the US-Iran conflict.The strength of the index is more supported by the profits of leading companies and expectations of AI capital expenditure, while macroeconomic constraints have not eased.。

Maintain a neutral-to-cautious stance, continue to favor leading technology companies.The most likely path for the US stock market remains high volatility at index peaks,Styles continue to concentrate on earnings certainty and cash flow quality. The market's pricing for rate cuts within the year has significantly contracted, and energy shocks have not truly exited the pricing framework.The S&P 500 forward 12-month P/E ratio was 21.8 (April 29). If earnings reports fail to consistently exceed expectations or geopolitical tensions worsen again, index volatility may significantly increase.

S&P 500 forward 12-month P/E ratio 21.8 (April 29)

Focus Stocks-$Amazon (AMZN.US)$ ：A global leader in cloud computing and e-commerce, with AI capital expenditure validation as a core focus.The midpoint of Q2 revenue guidance exceeded expectations by about 4%, and management clearly stated that the strong sales trend continued into the second quarter.AWS re-accelerated to 28% growth, advertising maintained high growth of 24%, retail profit margins continued to improve, and AWS AI-related revenue run-rate exceeded $15 billion in Q1.Revenue from in-house chip-related businesses reached a run-rate of over $20 billion, growing over 100% year-on-year. International operating profit margin reached 3.6% in Q1, showing clear signs of sustained improvement. Prime same-day delivery has expanded to more than 90,000 products.

Most of AWS's capital expenditures will be installed and monetized in the coming years. Trainium is expected to save tens of billions of dollars annually in capital expenditures and bring hundreds of basis points in operating margin advantages.Securing supply first, then capturing the ecosystem, and finally harvesting profits is a typical Amazon-style strategy. The post-market stock price shifting from a decline to an increase indicates that the market did not reject this approach.The current forward 1-year P/E ratio is 29x, indicating a relatively full valuation.In the short term, stock price momentum will be influenced by fluctuations in free cash flow and whether AWS growth can reach above 30%.

AMZN valuation Forward two-year P/E ratio Source: Bloomberg, Futu Private Wealth Research Compiled

2.2 Hong Kong Stock Market

Hang Seng Index fell 0.78% over the week with improved trading volume; what is the potential for structural recovery amid volatile conditions?

The Hang Seng Index dropped 0.78% for the week, with an average daily turnover of 266 billion Hong Kong dollars, up around 30 billion from last week. The cumulative net inflow via Stock Connect reached 18.7 billion Hong Kong dollars. Southbound capital flowed in$CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK)$ 、$CNOOC (00883.HK)$ and$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ , while outflows were observed$BABA-W (09988.HK)$ 、$GEELY AUTO (00175.HK)$ and$TENCENT (00700.HK)$ , reflecting a shift from internet stocks to dividend-paying and hardware sectors.

Maintain the view that Hong Kong stocks will see medium-term recovery, short-term volatility, and better performance in specific sectors than the overall index.。The Politburo meeting emphasized the precise and effective implementation of proactive fiscal policies and moderately accommodative monetary policies, further addressing unhealthy competition, and fully advancing the 'AI+' strategy, providing both valuation and earnings support for Hong Kong-listed internet, tech hardware, and innovative growth assets. It is suitable to allocate towards undervalued technology stocks, sectors benefiting from policy improvements, and assets continuously priced by mainland capital.

As of April 29, the year-to-date cumulative net purchases by Southbound funds have reached 235.7 billion yuan.Despite ongoing external risk disturbances, Southbound capital continues to support the pricing of Hong Kong stocks. The Hang Seng Index's forward 12-month P/E ratio stood at 11.6 (as of April 30), making valuations attractive.

HSI forward 12-month P/E ratio 11.6 (April 30) Source: Bloomberg, Futu Private Wealth Compiled

Focus Stocks -$MINTH GROUP (00425.HK)$ : The global leader in automotive components, driven by dual growth engines of electrification and new business. Core operations are entering the harvest phase, with significant volume increases in battery enclosures and body structural components.The acceleration of electrification in Europe combined with localized production capacity is gradually converting previous capital expenditure phases into revenue and profit realization phases.

Europe’s pure electric vehicle registrations are expected to rise to 1.88 million units by 2025, with year-over-year growth remaining strong at 24.2% and 20.6% respectively for January and February 2026. Minth supplies battery enclosures for 8 out of the top 15 best-selling EV models in Europe, demonstrating high transmission efficiency. The company forecasts double-digit growth in revenue and net profit for 2026, with potential reductions in sales and administrative expense ratios, and a capital expenditure cap of 2.5 billion yuan.

New businesses are transitioning from valuation discounts to premium valuation factors: robotics revenue projections have been raised from 100 million yuan to 500 million yuan, and liquid cooling from 200 million yuan to 300 million yuan. Robotic products will enter mass production in Ningbo by May, while liquid cooling products are already being produced in collaboration with a leading ** ODM partner in Jiaxing, with both now in the validation stage of upward guidance revision and order fulfillment.The current static P/E ratio of approximately 13 times reflects some optimistic expectations, but valuations are not yet overheated. Short-term focus should be on the pace of new business order fulfillment.

[III. Focus for This Week]

[4. Major bank views]

US Stock Summary:Market pricing for interest rate cuts this year has significantly tightened. The most likely scenario for US stocks remains index-level fluctuations with a concentration on profitability certainty and cash flow quality.Maintain a cautiously neutral stance.The seven major tech giants still have further upside potential. Continue to overweight semiconductors, though overall leadership will become more dispersed. Seasonal factors are favorable, as the second quarter has historically been a peak period for buybacks over the past three years, with the technology sector remaining the growth engine.

Hong Kong Stock Summary:The outlook for Hong Kong stocks remains one of mid-term recovery, short-term volatility, and structural outperformance over index performance. The Politburo has clarified that it will not pursue a large-scale comprehensive easing policy. One 10-basis-point interest rate cut is still anticipated within the year, but policies will provide dual support for valuations and earnings expectations for internet, technology hardware, and innovative growth assets.Structural allocation should focus on undervalued technology sectors, policy-improved beneficiary sectors, and assets continuously priced by domestic capital.，The barbell strategy (technology growth + dividend base) remains the optimal choice at present.

[5. Simulated Portfolio]

SinceJanuary 1, 2026Launching the Hong Kong-US equity growth strategy,with cumulative returns of 45.01% as of April 30.Starting this week,the simulated portfolio will be published weekly,sharing investment strategies and rationale for position adjustments driven by events in conjunction with the weekly report.

The portfolio is divided into two parts:Strategic HoldingsAllocated around mid-term promising themes, with periodic adjustments based on market conditions.Tactical positionWeekly adjustments are mainly event-driven, with a more aggressive investment style compared to strategic allocation.

Attached this week:

- Appendix 1: Comprehensive analysis of the portfolio year-to-date

- Appendix 2: Macroeconomic rebalancing indicators

- Appendix 3: Stock selection logic

Performance after April 30 rebalancing

Performance before April 30 rebalancing

Appendix 1: Comprehensive portfolio analysis

Appendix 2: Explanation of macroeconomic rebalancing indicators

A comprehensive scoring system based on four dimensions—macroeconomy, global liquidity, asset valuation, and credit market—is used to determine the equity-bond allocation weights. Increase stock positions when the economy is expanding, liquidity is loose, and stock valuations are low; raise cash levels during economic contraction and liquidity tightening. Additionally, introduce a month-on-month change threshold to add or subtract points for marginal improvements or deteriorations in key indicators (such as swap rate volatility, liquidity index fluctuations, etc.) to capture directional changes in high-frequency data.

Appendix 3: Stock Selection Logic

NVDA$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$

Reason for establishing position: A new product cycle has begun, with PEG significantly less than 1, combining growth and valuation.

At the beginning of the year when the position was established, the Blackwell architecture (GB200/GB300) was in the full-scale mass production and delivery phase, and the market had already started anticipating the release of the next-generation Vera Rubin architecture. High double-digit profit growth provided a significant margin of safety for valuation.The rationale for continuing to hold the position at present lies in:The investment cycle for AI infrastructure is far from over, with hyperscale cloud vendors expecting capital expenditure growth to approach 70% by 2026. The Rubin architecture takes over, creating synergistic effects across the entire stack with optical communication, storage, and liquid cooling, deepening competitive barriers while maintaining an attractive valuation.

AMZN$Amazon (AMZN.US)$

Reason for establishing position: Strong backlog of cloud orders with robust growth, short-term cash flow pressured by Capex, but long-term cloud service price increases are highly predictable.

First-quarter results exceeded expectations, with revenue at $181.5 billion (+17%) and EPS at $2.78, far surpassing forecasts. AWS revenue reached $37.6 billion (+28%), though it fell short of the buyer’s 30% threshold, backlog orders surged from $244 billion to $364 billion; Trainium's committed revenue exceeded $225 billion, Bedrock customer spending increased 170% quarter-over-quarter, token processing volume was more than 10 times the total of all previous years, and chip business annualized revenue surpassed $20 billion with triple-digit growth, fully demonstrating that AI demand is far from peaking. The Q2 revenue guidance of $194-199 billion is higher than expected, capital expenditure plans remain unchanged, which turns out positive against the backdrop of rising memory prices.The core focus remains on whether AWS can return to a growth rate above 30%, the quality of backlog order conversion, and the realization of Anthropic’s contributions.Short-term growth is slightly below expectations, but the certainty and scale of AI infrastructure demand far exceed market pricing, indicating solid medium-to-long-term growth logic.

META$Meta Platforms (META.US)$

Reason for establishing position: Strong advertising monetization capabilities provide sufficient ammunition for long-term AI investments,Low valuation provides a margin of safety.

First-quarter revenue reached $56.3 billion (+33%), with EPS at $10.44 significantly surpassing market expectations of $8.15, key advertising metrics remained healthy: impressions +19%, price per unit +12%, operating profit margin at 41%. However, Meta received the weakest market feedback and most controversy among the four tech giants. The core issue does not lie in advertising itself, but rather the increase in capital expenditures (midpoint up by $10 billion to $125-145 billion) suppressing EPS expectations, and no narrowing of expense guidance. More crucially, Meta lacks hard metrics directly quantifying AI investment returns, such as Azure guidance, AWS backlog orders, or Trainium commitments. There are bright spots in AI progress — Facebook video time increased 8% quarter-over-quarter, the strongest in four years, merchant AI conversations jumped from 1 million per week at the start of the year to 10 million per week — But the market still needs evidence showing AI truly translates into improved ad pricing and monetization.Q2 guidance of $58-61 billion is largely in line with expectations. Short-term EPS faces downward revision pressure, while medium-to-long-term logic depends on whether AI investments can translate into measurable ad efficiency and commercial messaging revenue.

MSFT$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$

Reason for establishing position: Market concerns over Azure's gross margin are excessive, and the stock price is undervalued.

Q1 revenue reached $82.9 billion (+18%), with EPS at $4.27, both exceeding expectations. Azure maintained strong growth at 40%. The key highlight lies in the guidance: June quarter Azure’s fixed currency growth rate of 39%-40% indicates slight acceleration rather than the feared slowdown. Some investors believe the actual growth is closer to 40.5%. Management also forecasts mild acceleration in the second half; M365 Commercial Cloud guidance exceeded expectations as well. Capital expenditure was the biggest highlight and point of contention: approximately $190 billion for the calendar year 2026 (including $25 billion in memory costs), implying $118 billion in the second half (+63% YoY), annualized to $236 billion, far surpassing market expectations for fiscal 2027, which is extremely positive for the semiconductor chain. Despite this, management still expects capacity constraints until the end of 2026, indicating that AI demand far outstrips supply. Commercial RPO reached $627 billion (+99%). The anticipated decline in headcount reflects cost discipline. There is confusion regarding OpenAI order metrics that requires tracking, but the combination of Azure’s high growth and capacity bottlenecks confirms very strong AI demand certainty.The medium-to-long term logic remains solid.Risks are concentrated around market concerns over SaaS growth.

GOOGL$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$

Reason for establishing position: Gemini model capabilities are leading, with deep integration of AI and search enhancing monetization ability. AI commercialization benefits from an inherent ecosystem advantage.

Q1 results beat expectations across the board, with revenue at $109.9 billion (+22%) and EPS at $5.11, significantly higher than market expectations. Core search revenue hit $60.4 billion (+19%), exceeding expectations and accelerating, serving as the core growth anchor. Cloud business revenue was $20 billion (+63%), with operating profit at $6.6 billion. Backlog orders exceeded $460 billion, doubling sequentially, strongly validating enterprise-level AI demand. Q1 capital expenditure more than doubled year-over-year to $35.7 billion. The market acknowledges its revenue conversion capability, with only high capex in 2027 seen as a potential risk. Current valuation holds re-rating potential.Going forward, it is necessary to track search growth rates, cloud order conversion, the implementation of AI infrastructure, and the impact of capital expenditures on cash flow.

ARM$Arm Holdings (ARM.US)$

Reason for establishing a position: The Armv9 architecture and CSS solution are driving an explosion in "royalty dividends," with initial success in data center deployment.

At the beginning of the year when purchased, cloud giants had already adopted custom chips based on the Arm architecture on a large scale, accelerating royalty income.Currently, ARM has officially launched its first self-developed data center chip—AGI CPU, which significantly expands the potential market size from the existing IP/CSS market to the data center CPU market (expected to exceed $100 billion by 2031). The total profit from selling physical chips far exceeds that of pure IP licensing, significantly raising the ceiling of the business model.

INTC$Intel (INTC.US)$

Reason for establishing a position: Valuation recovery under extremely pessimistic expectations, improvement in 18A process yield, and signs of a turnaround in foundry operations.

The core logic for establishing a position at the beginning of the year was that the market pricing for Intel had fully reflected the most pessimistic scenario. The current holding logic has shifted to "AI system-level value reevaluation" and "earnings/valuation double boost": As AI workloads shift from training to inference, agents, robotics, and edge AI,The CPU's role as the orchestration layer in the AI technology stack is becoming increasingly important, with ASP increases and shipment recovery expected to be key drivers of revenue and profit growth by 2026; progress with external customers, such as the Terafab project, is gradually unlocking the value of foundry options.

COHR$Coherent (COHR.US)$

Reason for establishing a position: Market skepticism regarding high leverage and production bottlenecks creates an expectation gap, while underlying demand for AI optical communication is poised to explode.

Forward-looking indicators at the start of the year suggested that the new management was implementing sweeping reforms. The current investment thesis has evolved into"full realization and exponential upward revision of TAM": The book-to-bill ratio exceeds 4x, InP capacity is rapidly expanding, with nearly all incremental capacity being 6-inch production lines; meanwhile, positioning precisely in next-generation technology paths like CPO/OCS beyond traditional pluggable optical modules.

PFE$Pfizer (PFE.US)$

Reason for establishing a position: A $7.2 billion cost-saving initiative is underway, acquisitions are rebuilding the product line, valuation is at historical lows, dividend yield is attractive, making it a typical "low expectations + high dividend" defensive allocation.

Q4 earnings exceeded expectations; close attention must now be paid to the clinical data tracking of weight-loss drugs and the commercialization progress of the pipeline.The key focus is whether cost reductions can continue to drive profit growthand whether new pipelines (such as weight-loss drugs) can become the main growth driver.

700 $TENCENT (00700.HK)$(Tencent)

Reason for establishing a position: Gaming revenue exceeded expectations, combined with AI revenue ramp-up and improved market expectations.

The current investment thesis has shifted to an AI-driven turnaround:Cloud business serves as a revenue buffer, while the company continues to integrate internal resources and fully transition its strategy toward AI, potentially unlocking new valuation upside.

981 $SMIC (00981.HK)$(SMIC)

Reason for establishing position: Q1 demonstrated 'no off-season,' with capital expenditures expanding against the trend, showcasing strong demand as a 'sign of early recovery.'

Continued holding is based on sustained improvement from marginal changes in fundamentals.：In 2026, a higher proportion of new capacity will be allocated to advanced processes, driving product mix optimization; DeepSeek V4 is accelerating compatibility with domestic chips, and SMIC, as the main foundry for domestic computing chips, will directly benefit; the U.S. MATCH Act will also push for faster localization across the entire semiconductor equipment supply chain. While there may be short-term pain, in the long run, it will substantially promote self-reliance and complete the industrial loop.

9660 $HORIZONROBOT-W (09660.HK)$(Horizonrobot)

Reason for establishing position: A key milestone for the mass production and delivery of the Journey 6 series chip, maintaining extremely high revenue growth while narrowing losses continuously.

The price war in the new energy vehicle sector remained fierce in the first and second quarters, with suppliers under pressure to cut prices, squeezing profit margins, compounded by geopolitical conflicts that have lowered the overall valuation of Hong Kong stocks.Current position continues to be heldThis is because the core logic remains unchanged: stable market share leadership, with the anticipated HSD mass production at the beginning of the year accelerating its realization; the 'software-hardware integration' strategy deepens the moat. Additionally, the spin-off of the robotics business has expedited the arrival of the profitability inflection point, while retaining 40% equity to preserve the option value of this business.

6160 $BEONE MEDICINES (06160.HK)$(BeiGene)

Reason for building position: Zanubrutinib (Brukinsa) continues to gain global market share from Ibrutinib, with steady progress in overseas commercialization of subsequent pipelines.

Current investment logicThe company has upgraded to become a profitable global pharmaceutical giant: global commercial infrastructure is in place, and operating leverage is gradually being released. The risk lies in intensified competition in the BTK space.

966 $CHINA TAIPING (00966.HK)$(China Taiping)

Reason for building position: Reduction in insurance PIR lowers liability costs, and a dividend yield above 5% offers defensive attributes.

Current investment logic:Collective outperformance in the insurance industry; new business value (NBV) in life insurance is expected to recover after interest rates stabilize, driving both fundamentals and valuation upward.

1530 $3SBIO (01530.HK)$(San Sheng Pharmaceutical)

Reason for establishing position: Clear expectations of BD catalysis, global clinical advancement of the PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody (SSGJ-707) after licensing to Pfizer, with milestone payments expected to be triggered by 2026.

The global value of the 707 molecule is gradually being established:Pfizer has efficiently initiated nine international multi-center clinical trials (seven already recruiting), and plans to advance five global Phase III clinical trials by 2026. Key data will be disclosed at the ASCO conference, and 707 is expected to become a cornerstone drug for next-generation cancer treatment, bringing continuous milestone and royalty income. The company holds over 20 billion yuan in cash, strongly supporting subsequent R&D and shareholder returns.

9606 $DUALITYBIO-B (09606.HK)$(Yingen Bio)

Reason for establishing position: Global clinical progress and data validation for the BIC/FIC ADC pipeline are imminent, with significant upside potential in valuation.

DB-1311, etc.Continuous disclosure of excellent data from core assets, 'ADC+IO 2.0' combination therapy continues to be validated, combined with ample cash flow and clear expectations for STAR Market listing, providing a high margin of safety. Catalysts are set to intensify in 2026, with a clear timetable for data release: DB-1305 data to be released at the ESMO Breast Cancer Conference in Q2; DB-1311 data to be published at WCLC/ESMO in Q3; ORR and safety data for DB-1303 to be announced at SABCS/ESMO Asia in Q4, creating continuous event-driven momentum.

0425 $MINTH GROUP (00425.HK)$(Minth Group)

Reason for establishing a position: The scaling up of battery box business combined with the new "AI + robotics" ventures presents an opportunity for valuation re-rating.

The company is one of the world's largest suppliers of battery boxes and body structural components, with an order backlog exceeding tens of billions. Battery boxes contribute significantly to incremental growth. Overseas revenue accounts for 65% of total revenue, offering unique localized delivery capabilities in Europe, North America, and Mexico. By 2025, liquid cooling systems for AI servers will achieve mass production, with expected revenue contributions from this segment reaching hundreds of millions by 2026. The company has also established a joint venture to develop robotic structural components and joint modules, successfully entering the supply chains of domestic and international robotics firms. The forecasted P/E ratio for 2027 is only around 11x, which remains significantly discounted compared to the over 20x P/E for Asia’s automotive parts industry, making the valuation appealing.

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