The V-shaped rebound in US stocks continues to hit new highs! How to respond? The 'lazy investment method' from Buffett

In April, the US stock market staged a textbook V-shaped recovery. Previously, ongoing tensions over the US-Israel conflict against Iran had cast a shadow of energy crisis and runaway inflation over the markets. However, recently, $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ and $Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ the US stock market, represented by key indices, not only swiftly recovered all losses since the outbreak of the conflict at the end of February, but also surged ahead with consecutive new all-time highs.

Faced with such a sharp rally, many fellow investors may feel both excited and anxious:After such a big rally, is there still room to buy? Is a pullback coming?

The answer is: don't try to guess the peak, but focus on strategy. The current market is a testament to the belief that for US stocks,"Every dip is a buying opportunity."Another strong validation. Fellow investors will break down the logic behind this violent rebound and provide a simple, robust, and practical plan suitable for newcomers to the market.

Behind the US stock rebound: War noise vs. fundamental resilience

The shadow of war was once the biggest uncertainty in the market. Throughout March, concerns over shipping safety in the Strait of Hormuz and potential oil supply disruptions drove international oil prices higher, while the market continued to pull back.

However, entering April, a series of dramatic developments caused the 'noise' from geopolitical tensions to suddenly subside, leading to a complete 180-degree turn in market logic.April 8, 2026, became the inflection point of this rebound.On that day, the United States and Iran reached a temporary ceasefire agreement lasting about two weeks. This news, like rain after a long drought, greatly eased the market's deepest fears.

As soon as the news broke, it triggered a strong short squeeze. Trading desk data showed that overall market activity surged 70% above the average of the previous two weeks, with a large number of futures short positions forced to cover, fueling the rebound.

Setting aside the fog of geopolitical conflict, during this period, corporate earnings expectations not only did not decline but continued to rise against the trend.Data showed that the 12-month forward earnings expectations for S&P 500 components had cumulatively increased by 3.6% following the escalation of geopolitical risks, with the tech sector’s earnings growth hitting a record high since 1995.

This also confirmed our judgment on the anniversary of the sharp decline on April 7:What ultimately determines the US stock market is economic fundamentals and industry logic, not events themselves.Fellow investors who are interested can review it~

The First Anniversary of the 4.7 Market Plunge: From the Tariff Storm to US-Iran Tensions, What Has the Market Taught Us?

Of course, this jubilation built on 'easing US-Iran tensions' is not without its concerns. The current optimism rests on fragile peace expectations. Progress in US-Iran negotiations remains uncertain, and the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has yet to be finalized.

But in any case, as of mid-April, the scales of the game had clearly tilted.A rally ignited by a reversal of geopolitical expectations, supported by the wave of AI industrial growth and resilient earnings, and reinforced by systematic capital inflows and sentiment reversal, has indeed occurred.It once again confirms that amid all the short-term 'noise,' long-term robust fundamentals will ultimately become the decisive force determining market direction.

Why Ordinary People Can Start with the S&P 500: Buffett's 'Lazy Investment Method'

Despite ongoing geopolitical 'noise,' the fundamental force that determines the long-term direction of the US stock market has always been solid fundamentals – profit growth and capital expenditure driven by AI. Given that the long-term direction is clear, how can most investors, those who 'understand the market but haven't actually operated' or those who are too busy to study individual stocks, participate in this journey in the simplest and most efficient way?

The 'Oracle of Omaha,' Buffett, has already provided the answer: regular investment in the S&P 500 index fund.This is the most hassle-free and effective way for ordinary people to share in the dividends of US economic growth.

Buffett has repeatedly emphasized, 'For most people, the best approach is to invest in the S&P 500 index.' He believes that an amateur investor who knows nothing can often outperform the majority of professional investors by regularly investing in index funds.

In 2007, he publicly wagered $1 million that over a ten-year period, the performance of the S&P 500 index would surpass a portfolio of hedge funds selected by professional investors. By 2017, the results showedthe S&P 500 index achieved a stunning total return of 125.8% (annualized at about 8.5%), significantly outperforming the competing hedge fund portfolio, which delivered an average annual return of only around 2%.

Buffett even made a '90/10' will arrangement:My advice is as simple as this: put 10% of your cash into short-term government bonds and 90% into an ultra-low-cost S&P 500 index fund.

Buffett advocates this method not because it is 'simple,' but because itperfectly addresses two fundamental challenges that trouble ordinary investors: 'What to choose' (the difficulty of stock selection) and 'When to buy' (the difficulty of market timing).。

Solving the 'stock selection difficulty': directly buy a 'basket' of core assets.

The S&P 500 Index consists of the 500 largest and most liquid publicly traded companies in the United States, covering all core industries such as technology, finance, healthcare, and consumer goods. It acts like an automatically curated 'portfolio of top American companies.' Investing in it means you don't need to analyze financial reports or predict industry trends; you can automatically hold leading companies driving economic growth, like Apple, Microsoft, and NVIDIA, at a reasonable weighting.

Solving the 'Timing Dilemma': Overcoming Human Weaknesses with a 'Dollar-Cost Averaging' Discipline

Attempting to predict short-term market highs and lows is a game even professional investors struggle to succeed at consistently. Ordinary investors are more prone to chasing highs during market euphoria and panic selling during downturns. The brilliance of regular, fixed-amount investing (dollar-cost averaging) lies in its disciplined approach, transforming the subjective challenge of 'timing the market' into a mechanical mathematical advantage: when the market falls, the same amount buys more shares, lowering the overall cost basis; when the market rises, fewer shares are purchased, but asset appreciation is enjoyed. This 'buy more shares when prices fall, gain value when prices rise' model perfectly smooths out market volatility risk, allowing investors to ignore short-term 'noise' and focus on long-term growth.

Practical Guide: How to Set Up Dollar-Cost Averaging for the S&P 500 on Futubull?

The Futubull app features a flexible recurring investment plan function. You can easily set a fixed date each week, every two weeks, or monthly to automatically buy the designated S&P 500 ETF. Set it once, and it operates on 'autopilot,' reducing anxiety over daily price fluctuations and perfectly executing the dollar-cost averaging strategy.

There are many ETFs tracking the S&P 500 in the market, with mainstream options including SPY, VOO, and IVV. All three are conveniently tradable on Futubull. Their key differences lie in:

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$： The oldest, largest, and most liquid option, but with a slightly higher management fee (0.09%).

$Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO.US)$： Managed by Vanguard Group, it has the lowest management fee (0.03%), offering a clear long-term cost advantage.

$iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV.US)$： A Blackrock iShares product, with a management fee (0.03%) comparable to VOO, making it another excellent low-cost choice.

On Futubull, you can directly use the 'ETF Comparison' feature to clearly compare their management fees, size, historical performance, and other key metrics to make the best choice for your needs.

The path is: Market > ETF > ETF Tools > ETF Comparison

It is important to note that investing in the S&P 500 ETF is not equivalent to a bank deposit. It is also subject to market volatility, geopolitical risks, exchange rate fluctuations, and other uncertainties. While dollar-cost averaging can mitigate risks, short-term losses may still occur. It is essential to invest with idle funds and be mentally prepared for long-term holding.

The story of US stocks continuously reaching new highs is fundamentally written by advanced systems, technological innovation, and global capital. As ordinary individuals, we don't need to predict every fluctuation. Instead, by adopting the simple yet powerful strategy of dollar-cost averaging into the S&P 500 index, we ensure that we remain onboard and are not left behind. History has repeatedly proven that the wisdom of achieving long-term returns lies in trusting the system and long-term trends. Now, you can start by setting up your first dollar-cost averaging plan on Futubull.

Risk Disclosure: This content does not constitute a research report and is for reference only. It should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. The information involved in this article is not a comprehensive description of the mentioned securities, markets, or developments. Although the source of the information is considered reliable, no guarantee is provided regarding its accuracy or completeness. Additionally, no assurance is given regarding the accuracy of any statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein.

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