BTC surpasses $75,000! Has the upward channel been fully opened?
When Quantum Computing Meets Bitcoin: A Long Evolution, An Upgrade Forged by Two-Way Progress
In recent years, the relationship between quantum computing and Bitcoin has gradually become a highly discussed topic in the crypto-assets field. On one hand, quantum computing is seen as the 'ultimate weapon' that could potentially disrupt existing cryptographic foundations; on the other hand, whether the security of Bitcoin, regarded as decentralized digital gold, could be completely destroyed by quantum technology has become a lingering question for investors.
In March 2026, ARK Invest and Unchained jointly released a white paper titled 'Bitcoin And Quantum Computing,' which systematically addressed this issue. This article will start with the basic concepts of quantum computing, outline the current technological stage and future evolution path, and distill the core recommendations for investors.
1) What is quantum computing? Why does it pose a threat to Bitcoin?
Quantum computing is a new type of computing method based on the principles of quantum mechanics. Traditional computers use 'bits' as units of information, where each bit can only exist in either a 0 or 1 state. However, quantum computers use 'quantum bits,' which can simultaneously exist in a superposition of 0 and 1 under certain conditions. This allows quantum computers to theoretically achieve exponential acceleration when dealing with certain complex problems.
Image Source: blocktempo
The security of Bitcoin relies on two main cryptographic mechanisms: elliptic curve encryption used for transaction signatures, and hash functions used for proof-of-work and linking blocks. Quantum computing poses a direct threat to elliptic curve encryption, especially with Shor's algorithm, which can efficiently crack elliptic curve keys on a sufficiently powerful quantum computer. This means that if quantum computing power surpasses a critical threshold, attackers could derive private keys from publicly visible Bitcoin addresses, potentially stealing assets.
However, it is worth noting that hash functions have relatively strong resistance to quantum computing. Therefore, the core focus of quantum threats lies in elliptic curve encryption, rather than Bitcoin's overall architecture.
2) What stage is quantum computing currently at?
The ARK white paper divides the development of quantum computing into five stages, and we are still in the earliest stage - Stage 0.
At this stage, although quantum computers already exist in laboratories, they do not yet possess any commercial value. Researchers refer to the current period as the 'NISQ era,' or 'Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum' era. The most advanced quantum systems currently have fewer than 100 logical qubits, with circuit depths in the hundreds, far from the 2,330 logical qubits and tens of millions to hundreds of millions of quantum gate operations required to crack Bitcoin's elliptic curve encryption.
Quantum computers at this stage are mainly used for fundamental physics experiments and theoretical research, posing no substantial threat to real-world cryptographic systems. Despite approximately $60 billion invested globally in quantum computing research and development, no company has yet been able to generate profits from it. Quantum computing remains a research-driven field, concentrated primarily in the United States, Europe, and China.
3) Evolution Path of Quantum Threats: From Theory to Reality
The ARK white paper points out that the threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin will not be a“Q-Day”-style sudden disaster, but rather a gradual evolutionary process.
Stage 1: Commercial Practicality Stage
Quantum computers are realizing commercial value in fields such as chemical simulation and materials science, for instance, surpassing classical computers in areas like catalyst discovery and fluid dynamics simulation. This phase still does not pose a threat to Bitcoin, but it will lay the technological and industrial groundwork for subsequent developments.
Stage 2: Cracking Weak Passwords Phase
Quantum computers begin to crack some older or weak key encryption systems, such as historically outdated weak encryption protocols. At this point, Bitcoin remains secure, but the market may start showing concerns and expectations regarding quantum risks.
Stage 3: Slow Cracking of Bitcoin Keys
Quantum computers successfully crack 256-bit elliptic curve public keys for the first time, but cracking a single key takes a long time (e.g., hours to days). At this stage, approximately 1.7 million Bitcoins stored in early P2PK addresses (mostly lost coins) will be at risk, while about 5.2 million Bitcoins can be protected by migrating to quantum-resistant addresses.
Image source: yellow
Stage 4: Rapid Cracking Phase
Quantum computers can complete key cracking within Bitcoin's block time (10 minutes), posing potential attacks even to users utilizing quantum-resistant addresses during transactions. This phase will pose a systemic threat to the Bitcoin network, necessitating protocol-level post-quantum cryptography upgrades before this stage.
4) Key Focus Areas for Investors
The ARK white paper presents investors with four critical questions to help them make rational judgments during the evolution of quantum computing:
1. When will the first Bitcoin public key be cracked?
Mainstream institutions such as NIST, IBM, and Google generally predict that quantum computers capable of breaking 256-bit elliptic curve encryption may emerge in the mid-2030s. Although more aggressive or pessimistic forecasts exist, the overall trend points to a ten-to-twenty-year window.
Image source: anquanke
2. How much time will elapse between the cracking of the first and second public keys?
The ARK whitepaper suggests that the first crack will consume significant resources, and subsequent cracks will not immediately become cheap and fast. For example, if cracking one public key takes an hour, stealing Satoshi’s approximately 22,000 addresses would take over three years; if it takes a day, it would require sixty years. This provides the Bitcoin community with precious time to respond.
3. Who will possess the ability to crack?
The development of quantum computing will follow a 'decentralized' trend, similar to the evolution path of artificial intelligence. In the future, multiple quantum computing companies will emerge globally, and quantum computing cloud services might even appear, making cracking capabilities widely distributed rather than concentrated in a single entity.
4. What is the cost of cracking Bitcoin private keys?
According to a 2023 study by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, the electricity cost alone could exceed $100,000, but it must be noted that this is only the power expense, far from the total cost of the attack. Building and operating a quantum computer capable of cracking would also incur enormous costs for hardware manufacturing, cooling systems, R&D investment, and team maintenance. The real total cost could reach hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars. As quantum computing costs decrease and the value of Bitcoin rises, the economic threshold for attacks will gradually lower, necessitating proactive defensive measures.
5) Post-quantum cryptography is already underway, and consensus upgrades are critical.
The ARK white paper emphasizes that research in post-quantum cryptography has outpaced quantum computing. In 2024, NIST officially released two digital signature standards: ML-DSA based on lattice cryptography and SLH-DSA based on hash functions. Currently, internet infrastructure such as OpenSSH and OpenSSL have started enabling post-quantum encryption by default, and a significant portion of global network traffic has achieved quantum security.
Image source: sohu
However, introducing post-quantum cryptography to Bitcoin presents unique challenges: Bitcoin’s on-chain storage and computational resources are extremely limited, and any consensus-level upgrade must balance efficiency, compatibility, and security. Proposals such as BIP 360 have been put forward, attempting to implement quantum-resistant addresses without compromising Taproot functionality. Nevertheless, the Bitcoin community has yet to reach consensus on issues like the speed of upgrades, choice of solutions, and whether 'quantum-vulnerable but potentially lost' Bitcoin should be frozen.
6) Three future scenarios: pessimistic, optimistic, and balanced
The ARK white paper outlines three possible evolution paths for investors:
Pessimistic scenario:Quantum computing advances rapidly with the help of AI, catching the community off guard. Rushed upgrades lead to technical debt and political fragmentation. Even so, Bitcoin is likely to survive, albeit through a chaotic process.
Image source: unite.ai
Optimistic scenario:Progress in quantum technology slows down, giving the community ample time to carefully select post-quantum solutions and complete a smooth upgrade in a stress-free environment.
Balanced scenario:Over the next 10-20 years, quantum computing gradually progresses to Stage 3. The community initiates consensus-building at Stage 1 or Stage 2 and completes the upgrade before Stage 3 arrives. While there may be disputes along the way, the overall situation remains manageable.
Summary: Approach risks calmly and plan rationally
The threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin is real but far from imminent. Current quantum systems are still in the laboratory phase, with multiple orders of magnitude separating them from cracking Bitcoin keys. More importantly, the evolution of quantum threats will be a long, observable process, giving Bitcoin and the broader digital asset market, technology, and governance ample time to respond.
Image source: Reddit
For investors, there is no need for short-term panic, but over the medium to long term, 'quantum readiness' should be incorporated into the framework for evaluating Bitcoin's security. Monitoring advancements in post-quantum cryptography standards, shifts in Bitcoin community consensus, and support for quantum-safe addresses by major wallets and custodians will be key to staying ahead over the next decade.
As ARK's white paper states: 'Although Bitcoin evolves slowly, it is precisely this slowness that underpins the credibility of its monetary policy.' In the face of the quantum computing wave, slowness may well be the strongest defense.
References: ARK Invest & Unchained, Bitcoin And Quantum Computing, March 2026.
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