BTC surpasses $75,000! Has the upward channel been fully opened?

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Options Windfall Practice | Bitcoin surged 13% in 8 days, knocking on the door of $76,000! Is it a technical recovery or a trend reversal?

This article is from the 'Options风口Strategy' column, which aims to stand at the forefront of investment trends, interpret opportunities in these trends, and teach everyone how to seize these opportunities with options. If you're interested, welcome.Click hereJoin the learning community, and you will receive notifications when there are updates in subsequent columns.

*The following content is for educational investment purposes only, does not represent any investment advice, and the information provided is time-sensitive. Data is as of March 17, 2026, before the U.S. stock market opening. Please exercise caution when interpreting.

In the past week, the cryptocurrency market saw a long-awaited significant rebound.

On March 17, $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ Prices once broke through $75,000, reaching a peak of $76,000. From March 9 to March 16, it rose from a relative low of $66,236.8 to $74,772.66, accumulating an increase of nearly 13% over 8 days. This has shaken off the downturn since the beginning of the year, moving close to the upper BOLL line.

As a market benchmark, $Ethereum (ETH.CC)$ performed even more aggressively, with gains almost twice that of Bitcoin. Over 8 days, it surged more than 21%, rising from below $2,000 to above $2,300.

Driven by the rebound in the cryptocurrency market, related concept stocks generally performed well. Among them, the leading Bitcoin holder, $Strategy (MSTR.US)$ , accumulated a gain of over 10% from March 9 to March 16; the trading platform $Coinbase (COIN.US)$ gained about 3% during this period; stablecoin issuer $Circle (CRCL.US)$ broke through $100 on March 3, and recently surged to above $125, with a single-day surge of 9.06% on March 16.

Below, webreak down the logic behind this round of rebound in the crypto market and provide an outlook on future trends. Finally, we'll look at how related stocks are currently using options to seize opportunities and manage risks.

Multiple engines behind this rally

The starting point of this rebound had distinct characteristics of technical recovery.

Previously, Bitcoin had been declining for several consecutive months, with weak market sentiment and trading volume at a low, forming a technically oversold condition. Historically, such patterns are often followed by a temporary rebound.

When prices broke through key resistance levels, it triggered a large number of buy orders from algorithmic trading, further accelerating the upward movement. Currently, Bitcoin is hovering near the upper Bollinger Band (BOLL), indicating short-term strength but also implying possible increased volatility.

Moreover, this rebound was driven in part by some put option selling.

Previously, many traders sold a large number of Bitcoin put options with strike prices between $55,000 and $60,000. As these options approached expiration and were out-of-the-money, traders chose to close these positions.

Market makers, as counterparties, bought these puts, which essentially gave them positions that profit when Bitcoin's price falls. To maintain risk neutrality, they would sell some Bitcoin spot or futures contracts to hedge their exposure.

Now that the puts have been closed, the market makers' short positions no longer require hedging, so they need to buy spot Bitcoin to rebalance, creating concentrated buying pressure that drives prices up.

Moreover, a similar situation occurred at the $75,000 price level, meaning that when the price approaches this area, market makers' hedging behavior may exacerbate volatility.

On the macro level, there might be a dual叠加 of a policy expectation shift and an asset rotation effect.

Although the macro environment remains complex, some data offers a breather. The U.S. February CPI year-over-year growth was 2.41%, roughly in line with expectations, showing no further deterioration. This has somewhat eased extreme market concerns about inflation spiking again and monetary policy becoming more hawkish. The Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate, and global liquidity showed no new tightening signals.

The market broadly expects that the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision to be announced on March 18 may release dovish signals, with the dot plot possibly indicating a rate cut starting in June. Historically, whenever rate cut expectations heat up, capital often flows out of fixed-income assets and shifts towards high-risk, high-return assets like tech stocks and cryptocurrencies.

On the other side, tensions in the Middle East continue, once triggering a surge in crude oil prices and a rise in risk aversion. Interestingly, this round of safe-haven demand did not entirely flow into gold as usual—spot gold prices instead retreated from their highs during the same period. Geopolitical tensions are driving increased on-chain activity and cross-border liquidity needs; the narrative of Bitcoin as a geopolitical hedge is making a comeback.

In terms of capital inflows, there has been a dual return of institutional funds and stablecoin liquidity.

Data shows that Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net inflows for five consecutive trading days, with Blackrock's ETF seeing inflows for the third consecutive week, accumulating approximately $1.75 billion. This level of sustained inflow is not retail behavior but rather strategic buying by institutions based on long-term allocation perspectives.

Meanwhile, Strategy, the leading Bitcoin holder, continues to increase its holdings. The 'diamond hands'示范 effect from its founder Michael Saylor further strengthens market confidence. During the pullback period, company chairman Michael Saylor purchased nearly $1.6 billion worth of Bitcoin at an average buy-in price of around $70,000, quickly boosting Strategy’s stock price and to some extent lifting bullish sentiment across the entire sector.

Additionally, in just the past month, Circle-issued USDC recorded about $8 billion in net inflows, and last week the USDC supply rose to an all-time high of approximately $81.1 billion, indicating that funds are flowing into the crypto market amid global uncertainty.

Outlook: Standing at the crossroads of bullish and bearish divergence

Bitcoin is currently at a critical technical juncture. On March 17, the price briefly touched $76,000, indicating that the market is attempting to break through this long-standing resistance zone.Whether it can effectively stabilize above $74,000 this week may determine the nature of the rebound — whether it's a technical correction or a trend reversal.

If Bitcoin successfully stabilizes above $74,000 and dovish signals from the Federal Reserve are released, the market could potentially kick off a new upward trend.The next target for bulls will be the $75,500–$80,000 range, with longer-term targets being $85,000–$90,000. If the 'Crypto Market Structure Bill' makes substantial progress in Q2, institutions predict that Bitcoin may head towards $100,000.

Regarding related concept stocks, Strategy acts as a shadow stock for Bitcoin, offering leveraged exposure; Coinbase directly benefits from increased trading activity; Circle, as a leading compliant stablecoin issuer, could see its valuation reshaped.

However, warnings in the market cannot be ignored. Many traders warn that this breakout could become a typical 'bull trap.'— A temporary breakout luring late buyers before prices reverse and fall.

From a technical perspective, the $70,000–$71,000 range might be the first line of defense, and a break below it could trigger further adjustments. The $76,000–$78,000 range contains significant profit-taking positions, which may face short-term selling pressure. Market makers' structural options positions near key levels like $75,000 will also intensify the tug-of-war between bulls and bears.

On-chain data also shows concerns: approximately 38% of altcoins are trading near historical lows, with pullbacks surpassing those seen post-FTX collapse; liquidity outside Bitcoin has not expanded significantly, suggesting widespread demand for an altcoin rebound has yet to form; there hasn’t been strong capital inflow to drive a full recovery in the market.

In terms of macro risks: oil prices spiraling out of control due to geopolitical conflicts could push up inflation expectations; a sharp rise in volatility in traditional markets might trigger risk-off sentiment; the risks of macroeconomic 'stagflation' or recession have not been eliminated.

This week is the 'super decision week' for global central banks, with the highlight being the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on March 18.The market expects a roughly 97% probability of maintaining unchanged interest rates, but what truly matters is whether the post-meeting statement hints at an earlier timetable for rate cuts within the year or larger-than-expected reductions. This will be a key variable in determining whether the rally can continue.

MSTR, COIN, CRCL: Three Major Crypto Stock Options Strategies — Navigating High Volatility

As the rebound in the crypto market continues, volatility in related U.S. stocks has significantly increased. For investors who want to participate in the market movement but prefer not to directly hold high-risk cryptocurrencies, these stocks and their options offer alternative tools. Below are option strategy ideas for three core targets:

Target One: Strategy (MSTR) — Covered Call Option

● Applicable Scenarios:Already holding $Strategy (MSTR.US)$ stock, believing that the price may enter a consolidation or mild uptrend in the short term, aiming to reduce holding costs.

● Strategy Idea:While holding the underlying stock, sell out-of-the-money call options to enhance returns by collecting premiums.

● Why choose this strategy:As the leading Bitcoin holder, MSTR’s stock price volatility may exceed that of Bitcoin itself, possessing high leverage characteristics. This means shareholders have the potential for high returns but also face significant volatility risks. Covered Call is a strategy particularly useful in this highly volatile environment, allowing long-term shareholders to smooth out earnings and lower average costs through premium income in a volatile market, effectively adding 'rental income' to their stock holdings.

● Profit and Loss Characteristics:If the stock price remains below the strike price before expiration, the option expires worthless, and investors earn the premium while continuing to benefit from any potential upside. If the stock price rises above the strike price, the stock will be exercised and sold, locking profits at the level of the strike price plus the premium, forgoing any excess gains. When the stock price falls, the premium income can partially offset losses but cannot fully mitigate downside risk.

The profit and loss characteristics of this strategy at expiration can be referenced in the diagram below (showing only the profit and loss of the options portion, excluding previously held stock gains or losses) for educational purposes only and does not represent any investment advice.

Target Two: Coinbase (COIN) — Bull Call Spread看好跨價認購期權

● Applicable Scenarios:Bullish on moderate stock price appreciation but believe implied volatility is high and the cost of directly buying options is too expensive.

● Strategy Concept:Buy call options with a lower strike price while selling call options with a higher strike price to achieve limited upside gains with a net premium outlay.

● Why choose this strategy: $Coinbase (COIN.US)$ As the leader in compliant exchanges, its revenue is directly linked to market trading activity, exhibiting high beta attributes during rebound rallies. However, this also causes its option's implied volatility to often remain elevated, making direct purchase of call options expensive. The bull call spread strategy aims to address situations where one wants to participate in upward movements without paying excessive premiums, sacrificing some upside potential in exchange for lower entry costs and clearer risk boundaries.

● Profit and Loss Characteristics:Maximum loss occurs when the stock price is below the lower strike price, equal to the net premium paid. Maximum profit equals (higher strike price - lower strike price - net premium per share) * contract multiplier * number of contracts. The breakeven point is the lower strike price plus the net premium per share.

The profit and loss characteristics of this strategy at expiration can be referenced in the figure below, for educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice:

Target Three: Circle (CRCL) — Long Collar Strategy

● Applicable Scenarios:Already holding or planning to buy $Circle (CRCL.US)$ stock, but with a large short-term increase and high volatility, hoping to control downside risk.

● Strategy Concept:While holding the underlying asset, purchase at-the-money or slightly out-of-the-money put options (Put) as insurance, and sell out-of-the-money call options (Call) to offset the cost of insurance.

● Why choose this strategy:As the leading stablecoin issuer, CRCL’s stock price has rapidly risen from $100 to over $125 recently. The short-term gains have been substantial, and its option implied volatility remains high. In the conflicted mindset of wanting to continue participating in potential upside while fearing a pullback from higher levels, the Long Collar strategy’s Put purchase sets a clear loss limit for the position, and the Call sale uses the collected premium to pay for this 'insurance,' achieving both offense and defense when chasing highs.

● Profit and loss characteristics: Downside risk is locked near the Put's strike price, so even if the stock crashes, the maximum loss is controllable. Upside potential is capped by the Call; once the stock price exceeds the higher strike price, no further profits can be made. After offsetting the premiums, the net cost is relatively low, making it suitable for balancing offense and defense when chasing highs. When the stock price oscillates within the strike price range, limited losses or small profits can be achieved.

The profit and loss characteristics of this strategy at expiration can be referenced in the figure below, for educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice:

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