BTC surpasses $75,000! Has the upward channel been fully opened?

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Crypto Weekly Recap | Bitcoin surged over 6% this week, outperforming gold and Nasdaq since the US-Iran conflict; Circle doubled in a month, analysts suggest potential for another 60% rise; Wall Street 'Oracle' visits Hong Kong! What investment opportunities will be revealed in the keynote speech?

This week, the crypto market, under dual pressures from traditional financial risks and geopolitical crises, demonstrated certain 'digital gold' safe-haven attributes. Since the US-Israel airstrike on Iran on February 28, its price showed relative resilience amid declines in stock markets and gold.Overall, as of press time, $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ Bitcoin surged over 6% this week, currently trading at $71,470; $Ethereum (ETH.CC)$ Ethereum surged over 7% this week, currently trading at $2,116.

Currently, The Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose to 31, indicating that market sentiment has shifted from extreme fear to fear.

Hot events this week

Hong Kong's first batch of stablecoin issuer licenses may be announced soon, with reports suggesting Standard Chartered, HSBC, and OSL are among the finalists

According to Sing Tao Headline, the list of Hong Kong's first batch of licensed stablecoin issuers may be announced this month. Sources indicate that Standard Chartered Bank, HSBC, and licensed virtual asset trading platforms $OSL GROUP (00863.HK)$ are among the first batch of candidates, with an announcement possibly as early as next week, though the list remains subject to change. Initially, around five institutions were shortlisted, but the final count may be reduced to three, with regulators favoring banking institutions to ensure stability and market confidence. No mainland Chinese firms appear to have made the cut, with Yuan Currency Technology, $LIANLIAN (02598.HK)$ may not have made it into the initial list. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) said it would not comment on market rumors.

HKMA President Eddie Yue previously stated that applications are being assessed and some institutions have been asked to provide additional materials, with the goal of completing licensing by March. Meanwhile, foreign stablecoins looking to serve retail investors in Hong Kong must hold a local license and establish offices and reserve assets in the city.

The US SEC advisory panel supports the advancement of tokenized securities and outlines safeguard measures

The US SEC’s Investor Advisory Committee voted to support advancing tokenized securities regulation policies, allowing stock trades to bypass intermediary settlement models that Wall Street investment firms have relied on for decades. The committee recommended limited exemptions for blockchain-based stock trading, provided that mandatory disclosures, periodic external oversight, and assurance that all investors receive the best terms during order execution are met.

The SEC chairman stated that these crypto assets legally still meet the definition of securities, thus requiring the same safeguards as the traditional system. The committee pointed out that the biggest risk with tokenized securities is that new reforms or exemptions may introduce risks unknown to investors and bring costs higher than the benefits of tokenization. Atkins mentioned that the SEC is expected to soon consider an innovative exemption to facilitate limited trading of certain tokenized securities while aiming to establish a long-term regulatory framework.

The US SEC and CFTC have signed a memorandum of understanding to collaborate on formulating crypto policies and promoting the launch of new products

On March 12, it was reported that the US SEC and CFTC signed a memorandum of understanding, committing to strengthen coordination and cooperation to support legitimate innovation, uphold market integrity, and ensure investor and client protection. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins stated that decades of regulatory turf battles, duplicate registrations, and differing regulations between the two agencies stifled innovation, pushing market participants towards other jurisdictions.

The two agencies stated that they will be committed to developing federal policies for 'a regulatory framework suitable for crypto assets and other emerging technologies,' and promised in the memorandum of understanding to 'coordinate closely and cooperate, and remove obstacles to the legal launch of crypto asset products as appropriate.' Although memorandums of understanding are generally non-binding, the formal commitment by both agencies to work closely together on policy measures including crypto is a positive signal for digital asset advocates. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated that the regulatory framework must keep pace with the times to meet the needs of market participants, and this agreement reinforces the commitment to a coordinated regulatory framework to provide comprehensive and seamless market oversight.

Circle's stock price doubled within a month. Bernstein analysts stated that driven by the growing adoption of stablecoins and AI-powered financial intermediaries, Circle's stock could have another 60% upside potential.

Less than nine months,$Circle (CRCL.US)$Circle completed its IPO milestone into mainstream capital markets as well as the growth test of a 'rebirth' in its stock price. During the initial speculative boom after going public, Circle, known as the first stablecoin stock, surged from its issue price of $31 to $260 quickly, but then fell back to around $50. After enduring a painful adjustment period,Circle's stock price broke through decisively again, surpassing the $110 mark.

Circle has undergone a qualitative transformation from 'speculative growth' to 'performance-driven growth.'The turning point came with the earnings report released in February. Circle's total revenue for the fiscal year 2025 reached $2.7 billion, a year-over-year increase of 64%. In the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025, its revenue hit $770 million, a 77% year-over-year increase, far exceeding market expectations.

Additionally, on March 13, Circle officially announced that the scale of its tokenized money market fund, USYC, had surpassed $20 billion, making it the world's largest tokenized money market fund. This milestone clearly demonstrates that on-chain cash and collateral are increasingly being adopted in global markets.

Bernstein analysts maintained their 'outperform' rating for Circle, the issuer of USDC, with a target price of $190, representing approximately 60% upside potential from the current level of $120.

The report highlighted that the adoption of stablecoins is increasingly decoupling from cryptocurrency market cycles. Despite a bear market, the supply of USDC has rebounded to near a record high of $78 billion, with the total market capitalization of dollar-backed stablecoins stabilizing at about $270 billion. Adjusted stablecoin trading volumes have grown more than 90% year-over-year, with higher turnover rates indicating that stablecoins are increasingly being used beyond crypto trading. Payment adoption is the main driver, as stablecoins are gradually integrating into traditional card networks. Visa now supports over 130 types of stablecoin-linked cards across more than 50 countries, with an annual settlement volume of approximately $4.6 billion. AI-driven 'agent finance' may become a new growth theme, with machine-to-machine micropayments between autonomous software agents requiring stablecoins as a natural payment rail.

Trump will host a grand luncheon for TRUMP token holders, where he and 18 'superstars' will attend in person.

According to the TrumpMeme official website, an exclusive crypto and business conference will be held at Mar-a-Lago in Florida on April 25, featuring US President Trump as the keynote speaker at a luncheon. The event is open to TRUMP token holders, with the top 297 participants ranked by their token holdings eligible to attend. The top 29 VIPs will also be invited to a VIP reception with Trump. Attendance eligibility is determined by token holdings as of the April 10 snapshot date and must remain above that level thereafter. All attendees must pass security background checks.

The Federal Reserve will initiate a 90-day consultation period for the Basel III proposal, with Bitcoin facing a 1250% risk weight

According to a report by Bitcoin.com, Michelle Bowman, the Fed Vice Chair for Supervision, stated that US regulators will propose rules to implement the final phase of Basel III in the coming weeks, expected to be released during the week of March 17-21, followed by a 90-day public comment period. The proposal was developed jointly by the Federal Reserve, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. Under the global crypto framework finalized by the Basel Committee in 2022, Bitcoin is categorized under Group 2b assets, which regulators consider difficult to hedge and inherently volatile, subject to a 1250% risk weight. This means that a bank holding $100 million in Bitcoin exposure would treat it as $1.25 billion in risk-weighted assets, requiring roughly $100 million in capital.

Compared to the zero risk weight for cash, gold, and U.S. Treasury bonds and the 20%-100% range for corporate loans, the capital treatment for Bitcoin is extremely stringent. Industry organizations have criticized the framework for misclassifying Bitcoin, preventing banks from offering related services.

U.S. SEC Chair calls for innovative exemption mechanisms for security tokenization

On March 12, SEC Chairman Paul S. Atkins stated at the Investor Advisory Committee (IAC) meeting that the committee would propose recommendations regarding the tokenization of equity securities. He acknowledged that tokenization could enhance settlement efficiency, reduce settlement risks, and eliminate unnecessary intermediaries. Atkins mentioned that he expected the SEC to soon review an 'innovative exemption' that would allow specific tokenized security transactions within a limited timeframe and scope, providing a practical foundation for establishing a long-term regulatory framework. Over the past 13 months, the SEC's Crypto Task Force has gathered opinions from market participants through roundtable discussions and public consultations and is continuing to seek feedback on the design of the exemption.

Forbes: Trump’s net worth grew by $1.4 billion in one year, primarily due to his cryptocurrency trading

According to Forbes' latest World Billionaires list, Trump's net worth now stands at $6.5 billion, an increase of $1.4 billion from a year ago. He ranks 645th among the 3,428 billionaires globally, improving from 700th place in 2025. The growth in Trump’s net worth is mainly attributed to his cryptocurrency trading. Over the past year, he earned approximately $550 million through selling crypto tokens issued by World Liberty Financial, a crypto enterprise founded by him and his family in September 2024.

Ethereum Official: Privacy in the ecosystem is experiencing a renaissance; today’s Ethereum represents the new cypherpunk.

March 13th,$Ethereum (ETH.CC)$Official sources stated that privacy in the Ethereum ecosystem is undergoing a transformation, or even a renaissance. Ethereum originated from the cypherpunk movement, which has been part of the decades-long struggle to protect digital rights through open-source technology. The core of this struggle lies in the protection of privacy rights, meaning that users’ online activities should not be repackaged for commercial use. Cypherpunk embodies the commitment to resist censorship, open-source development, privacy, and security (referred to as CROPS).

The new cypherpunk is a contemporary collaborative philosophy that embraces values like permissionlessness, privacy, decentralization, anti-censorship, trustlessness, and open-source culture. It is oriented towards positive-sum outcomes but rooted in a pragmatic political understanding of self-defense. Today’s Ethereum represents the new cypherpunk, offering a modern interpretation of tradition. This is cypherpunk with an Ethereum twist! The new cypherpunk is part of Eric Hughes' legacy, who is an exemplary figure in the cypherpunk community with profound insights into achieving privacy. At the end of 2023, Vitalik called on the community to 'revitalize Ethereum’s cypherpunk spirit,' and now might be the best time to become an advocate for privacy within the Ethereum ecosystem.

Wall Street's 'prophet' Tom Lee is set to visit Hong Kong! What investment opportunities will be revealed in his highly anticipated speech?

Top strategists on Wall Street,$Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR.US)$Chairman of the Board Tom Lee is about toMarch 14is set to make a high-profile appearance in Hong Kong, attending the Futu EXPO investment exhibition and delivering a keynote speech.

For investors who have been active in the US stock and cryptocurrency markets for a long time, the name Tom Lee should be very familiar. If you are still hesitant about cryptocurrencies or prefer US stocks, Tom Lee's perspective might open up a whole new world of wealth for you.

In the field of cryptocurrencies, Tom Lee’s role has evolved from being an 'observer' to becoming a 'deep participant.' Under Tom Lee's leadership,$Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR.US)$established a grand$Ethereum (ETH.CC)$reserve strategy, aiming to hold 5% of the global Ethereum supply.

Tom Lee has shown strong confidence in Ethereum’s performance. Tom Lee considers Ethereum as the 'core pillar' of the digital financial world. Tom Lee predicts that as the stablecoin market size moves toward 2-4 trillion US dollars, the Ethereum network will capture massive transaction fees. Tom Lee sees Ethereum as the optimal vehicle for the integration of traditional finance and digital finance in the future.

Bloomberg: Multiple Hong Kong family offices plan to increase their investment exposure to crypto assets and private markets

According to Bloomberg, many family offices located in Hong Kong plan to increase their allocations to private equity and digital assets over the next three years. The Hong Kong Institute for Monetary and Financial Research (HKIMR) wrote in a report on Tuesday that interest from wealthy families in these assets is expected to 'significantly rise,' including private credit and venture capital as well.

Hong Kong has been striving to encourage more high-net-worth individuals and their families to anchor investments locally, aiming to become a bridge between mainland China and global markets. According to a survey commissioned by the Hong Kong government and conducted by Deloitte (released last month), the number of single-family offices established in this financial hub increased to 3,384 as of the end of last year, marking a 25% growth compared to 2023.

Perspective

US Senator: Cryptocurrency market structure bill not expected to pass before April

According to Cointelegraph, US Senate Majority Leader John Thune stated that the Senate is not expected to advance legislation on digital asset market structure until April. Thune mentioned that the Senate plans to prioritize voting on the Save America Act, which requires voters to provide proof of US citizenship in person for registration. The market structure bill is expected to proceed after the vote on that act, likely being submitted by the banking committee around April.

This is inconsistent with the previous expectation of an Ohio senator hoping for congressional legislation to pass in April. The Senate Agriculture Committee has advanced its version of the bill, but the Banking Committee postponed the consolidation process scheduled for January. Last week, President Trump accused banks of 'holding hostage' the bill, despite the White House hosting three meetings with crypto and banking representatives. As of Thursday, it remains unclear whether policymakers have reached any agreements.

JPMorgan: Bitcoin and gold ETF flows diverged significantly following the outbreak of war in Iran

JPMorgan analysts stated that since the outbreak of the Iran war on February 27, there has been a noticeable divergence in fund flows between Bitcoin and gold ETFs. The largest gold ETF, GLD, saw an outflow of approximately 2.7% of its assets, while the largest spot Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, recorded an inflow of about 1.5% of its assets. Since October last year, especially among retail investors, there has been a rotation from Bitcoin to gold, $iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT.US)$ but the cumulative total inflows since 2024 remain approximately $SPDR Gold ETF (GLD.US)$ twice as much.

In terms of institutional holdings, short interest in IBIT has increased while short interest in GLD has decreased, indicating that institutions such as hedge funds are reducing their Bitcoin exposure in favor of gold. The put/call open interest ratio for IBIT has consistently remained higher than that of GLD since November last year, reflecting rising demand among institutional investors to hedge against downside risks in Bitcoin. Although declining short interest and lower put/call ratios for GLD indicate a more optimistic positioning, GLD's optionsImplied VolatilityThe upward trend is more pronounced, and market breadth is also weaker. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's volatility shows signs of compression, reflecting deeper institutional holdings and improved market liquidity.

Analysis: Seven central banks to announce interest rate decisions next week, potentially triggering volatility in the Bitcoin market

According to CoinDesk reports, next week will be a critical test for risk assets like Bitcoin as seven major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, will announce interest rate decisions. At the same time, war-driven oil price surges have triggered new concerns about global inflation. Traders are reassessing expectations of interest rate cuts, as rising energy costs may keep inflation high, increasing the risk of policymakers adopting a more hawkish stance.

The economic calendar includes: the Reserve Bank of Australia on March 17, the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve on March 18, and the Bank of Japan, Swiss National Bank, and European Central Bank on March 19. The market had widely expected major central banks to steadily cut interest rates, but the rise in oil prices caused by Middle East conflicts disrupted this expectation. If central banks signal a hawkish stance, it could trigger volatility and downward pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin. Analysts noted that the Federal Reserve’s initial reaction to oil price shocks is typically to wait and assess, hoping to determine whether growth or inflation poses a bigger problem, and most such shocks are temporary. Historically, only the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan have significantly influenced Bitcoin prices.

Analysis: Conditions for a Bitcoin rebound are gradually forming

On March 13, Matrixport stated in its weekly report that sentiment in the current cryptocurrency market remains weak, with overall trading volume still at a low level. Many traders have shifted their attention to other assets such as gold and crude oil. However, beneath the calm surface, some changes are occurring. Bitcoin has fallen for five consecutive months, which is relatively rare historically, and similar patterns often precede short-term rebounds. Meanwhile, the total market capitalization of altcoins has retreated to a range where multiple historical rebounds were initiated. Although our altcoin model has not yet officially turned bullish, the number of tokens re-entering above the 30-day moving average and passing momentum filters has significantly increased. With stablecoin funds flowing back into the market, liquidity conditions are continuously improving. Overall, these signals suggest that the likelihood of a cryptocurrency market rebound is gradually increasing.

Cryptocurrency concept tracker

BitMine added 60,976 ETH last week, surpassing the previous average weekly increase of 45,000-50,000 ETH.

$Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR.US)$ Last week, 60,976 ETH were newly purchased for approximately $131 million. As of March 8, the company currently holds 4.5346 million ETH, accounting for about 3.76% of the total ETH supply, along with $1.2 billion in cash and some Bitcoin and equity investments, bringing total assets to $10.3 billion. Among this, 3.0405 million ETH have been staked, generating annualized staking income of approximately $174 million at current prices.

Strive buys Strategy shares; are Bitcoin treasury companies starting to invest in each other?

On March 11, a company named $Strive (ASST.US)$ announced several developments. It increased its Bitcoin holdings by 179 coins, bringing the total to 13,311 BTC, valued at approximately $930 million. The dividend yield of its preferred stock SATA was raised to 12.75%. Additionally, it spent $50 million to purchase $Strategy (MSTR.US)$ The preferred shares STRC, worth 50 million, account for more than a third of Strive's treasury.

What does Strive do? It hoards Bitcoin. What does Strategy do? It also hoards Bitcoin. This has turned into a case where a company that hoards Bitcoin used a third of its money to buy shares issued by another company that hoards Bitcoin.

Jeff Walton, Chief Risk Officer of Strive, tweeted that STRC is a "high-quality credit product with good liquidity and better risk-return ratio compared to traditional fixed income." In other words: We think this is better than government bonds.

Coinbase executives denied lobbying against the Bitcoin small-transaction tax exemption policy

According to a report by Cointelegraph, $Coinbase (COIN.US)$ Executives denied allegations that the exchange was obstructing the tax-free policy for small Bitcoin transactions. Previously, Bitcoin advocates speculated on social media that Coinbase told lawmakers that Bitcoin was not widely used as a medium of exchange, thus it did not need to be tax-exempt. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong responded, calling the allegations "completely wrong," and stated that he has always lobbied for tax exemptions for small Bitcoin transactions and will continue to do so. Coinbase’s Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal and Chief Policy Officer Faryar Shirzad also reiterated that they “have never lobbied against Bitcoin.” Currently, U.S. lawmakers are considering tax exemptions for stablecoins pegged to the U.S. dollar, but Bitcoin is not included in the tax exemption scope of the CLARITY Act draft.

Bullish platform's spot trading volume surpasses Coinbase, becoming the world's third-largest cryptocurrency exchange

According to a report by CoinDesk, data shows that the institutional-grade crypto exchange $Bullish (BLSH.US)$ ranked among the top three centralized exchanges in spot trading volume for the first time in February, surpassing $Coinbase (COIN.US)$ . Bullish’s spot trading volume increased by 62.6% month-on-month to 76 billion USD, reaching the highest monthly total since October last year; market share rose to 5.06%, surpassing Coinbase’s 4.59%. Bullish went public on the New York Stock Exchange last year.

Despite Bullish’s rising share, overall activity on centralized exchanges declined. Total spot and derivatives trading volume in February fell by 2.41% to 5.61 trillion USD, the lowest level since October last year. Binance still ranks first with a 22% market share, but its dominance has dropped to the lowest level since October 2020, showing that trading activity is dispersing to more competitive platforms.

Sharplink Annual Report: Ethereum holdings increased to 868,699 ETH, with staking rewards reaching 14,516 ETH

Nasdaq-listed Ethereum treasury company $SharpLink (SBET.US)$ Released the full-year 2025 financial report, disclosing that its Ethereum holdings have increased to 868,699 ETH to date, including 604,618 native ETH, 208,893 ETH redeemed from LsETH, and 55,188 ETH redeemed from WeETH. Additionally, it has received 14,516 ETH in staking rewards and is now the second-largest publicly listed company in terms of ETH holdings globally. The company also disclosed holding $28.5 million in cash and $1.9 million in USDC, with plans to continue increasing its ETH position and expand staking operations.

Wells Fargo & Co submits WFUSD trademark application, potentially expanding further into crypto business

According to a CoinDesk report, a major U.S. bank $Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.US)$ has filed a cryptocurrency-related trademark application with the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office under the name WFUSD. According to the application documents, WFUSD will provide services such as 'cryptocurrency payment processing,' 'execution of digital asset transactions,' and 'services featuring asset tokenization software.' The name suggests that this could be a deposit token or stablecoin.

In 2019, Wells Fargo & Co disclosed plans to pilot an internal settlement service called 'Wells Fargo Digital Cash,' which would operate on its proprietary distributed ledger platform.

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