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First quarterly turnaround from loss to profit! Has XPeng reached a turning point?
港股窩輪Jenny
joined discussion · Mar 11 13:29

Differentiation Behind the General Rise in the Auto Sector: Li Auto Awaits Earnings at the 70-Yuan Mark

The Hong Kong stock auto sector performed strongly today, with the sector rising by 2.5%. Among them, $NIO-SW (09866.HK)$ Li Auto surged 16.1% in half a day thanks to its first-ever quarterly profit that beat expectations; $LEAPMOTOR (09863.HK)$ 、 $SERES (09927.HK)$and$GWMOTOR (02333.HK)$ Other stocks rose more than 4.8% in the half-day session, $XPENG-W (09868.HK)$ 、 $GEELY AUTO (00175.HK)$ with some surging 5.6% and 8.6%, indicating broad-based gains across the industry.
However, as one of the three giants of the new forces, $LI AUTO-W (02015.HK)$ UBS Group saw relatively moderate movements, with a rise of 1.38% to HKD 70, underperforming the sector's average level. From a technical perspective, the stock price is above the 10-day moving average (HKD 67.84) and has slightly breached the 30-day moving average (HKD 69.16), suggesting that short-term movement remains within a consolidation range. The immediate resistance level above is at HKD 73.2, with further resistance seen at HKD 75.1 (previous high). The key support below is at HKD 66.7, and if it breaks effectively, it may open up downside space to test the HKD 64 level.
The current technical indicators for Li Auto show clear divergence, with increasing tension between buyers and sellers at this level:
Most signals are neutral: the Stochastic Oscillator (KDJ) and Williams %R are in neutral zones, the RSI indicator stands at 55, and both the Momentum Oscillator and Rate of Change indicator point towards neutrality. This indicates a lack of clear directional momentum, and the stock price will likely remain in a short-term consolidation phase.
Sell signals have appeared: the CCI indicator has entered overbought territory and issued a sell signal, implying that short-term gains have accumulated and profit-taking pressure exists. Particularly, against the backdrop of significant sector-wide gains, individual stocks' weak performance suggests caution is needed regarding potential pullbacks.
Rare divergence signal: the MACD indicator shows a 'Golden Cross' buy signal, diverging clearly from other indicators, potentially signaling that downward momentum is gradually weakening. A catalyst could easily trigger a short-term rebound, but a trend reversal still requires confirmation through volume.
Overall, Li Auto is currently in a divergence pattern of 'strong sector performance versus individual stock consolidation.' Technically, it faces challenges both upward and downward, with bullish and bearish forces in a fragile balance. The upcoming quarterly earnings announcement will be the key variable to break this deadlock. Based on historical experience, the release of earnings by new energy vehicle companies often triggers significant stock price volatility. If the results exceed expectations, they can instantly reverse technical disadvantages and drive the stock price above resistance levels. However, if the results fall short of expectations, it may lead to profit-taking selloffs, opening up downside risks.
The Hong Kong-listed auto sector performed strongly today, with a sector increase of 2.5%, among which $NIO-SW (09866.HK)$ Benefiting from surprisingly strong first-ever quarterly profits, its share price surged by 16.1% in half a day; $LEAPMOTOR (09863.HK)$ 、 $SERES (09927.HK)$and$GWMOTOR (02333.HK)$ Half-day gains exceeded 4.8%, $XPENG-W (09868.HK)$ 、 $GEELY AUTO (00175.HK)$ With increases of 5.6% and 8.6%, respectively, showing widespread gains across the entire industry. However, as one of the three giants of the new forces, $LI AUTO-W (02015.HK)$ Its movement has been relatively mild, with the latest rise of 1.38%, quoted at 70 yuan, significantly underperforming the sector's average level. From a technical perspective, the stock price is above the 10-day moving average (67.84 yuan) and slightly above the 30-day line (69.16 yuan), with short-term trends still within a consolidation range. The primary resistance above is at 73.2 yuan, further resistance looks towards 75.1 yuan (previous high); key support below is at 66.7 yuan, a decisive break below which could open up downside space to test the 64-yuan integer mark. Currently, Li Auto’s technical indicators show clear divergence, with heightened trading battles between bulls and bears at this position: Mostly neutral signals: stochastic oscillator (KDJ) and Williams %R are in the neutral zone, RSI indicator is at 55 levels, momentum...
The Hong Kong-listed auto sector performed strongly today, with a sector increase of 2.5%, among which $NIO-SW (09866.HK)$ Benefiting from surprisingly strong first-ever quarterly profits, its share price surged by 16.1% in half a day; $LEAPMOTOR (09863.HK)$ 、 $SERES (09927.HK)$and$GWMOTOR (02333.HK)$ Half-day gains exceeded 4.8%, $XPENG-W (09868.HK)$ 、 $GEELY AUTO (00175.HK)$ With increases of 5.6% and 8.6%, respectively, showing widespread gains across the entire industry. However, as one of the three giants of the new forces, $LI AUTO-W (02015.HK)$ Its movement has been relatively mild, with the latest rise of 1.38%, quoted at 70 yuan, significantly underperforming the sector's average level. From a technical perspective, the stock price is above the 10-day moving average (67.84 yuan) and slightly above the 30-day line (69.16 yuan), with short-term trends still within a consolidation range. The primary resistance above is at 73.2 yuan, further resistance looks towards 75.1 yuan (previous high); key support below is at 66.7 yuan, a decisive break below which could open up downside space to test the 64-yuan integer mark. Currently, Li Auto’s technical indicators show clear divergence, with heightened trading battles between bulls and bears at this position: Mostly neutral signals: stochastic oscillator (KDJ) and Williams %R are in the neutral zone, RSI indicator is at 55 levels, momentum...
For bull contracts, investors who are optimistic about the market outlook may consider two products. UBS Group’s bull contract (59429) offers approximately 3.9 times actual leverage with a stop-loss level at HKD 58. Its standout feature is that it provides the highest actual leverage among similar products with relatively low premium, making it suitable for investors seeking higher leverage effects. Another option is Societe Generale's bull contract (55810), offering about 4.2 times actual leverage with the same stop-loss level at HKD 58. This product stands out with the lowest premium among bull contracts and also offers high leverage, balancing cost and return potential.
For bearish positions, there are bear contracts such as J.P. Morgan's bear contract (68758), which has a stop-loss level set at HKD 78 and provides approximately 6.1 times actual leverage. Its main selling point is the lowest premium. Another UBS Group bear contract (67911) has a stop-loss level of HKD 79 and offers about 5.1 times actual leverage. Its distinguishing feature is the highest actual leverage among similar products, with a relatively low premium, providing efficient deployment tools for investors who are bearish on the market outlook.
In terms of call warrants, investors may consider UBS Group’s call warrant (24865), with an exercise price of HKD 75.93 and approximately 3.6 times leverage. This warrant is considered ideal in terms of implied volatility and leverage. Another option is Bank of China's call warrant (24077), also with an exercise price of HKD 75.93 and about 3.5 times leverage. Its advantage lies in offering the highest leverage among call warrants with relatively low premiums, making it suitable for investors optimistic about the underlying stock and looking to capture gains at a lower cost.
As for put warrants, Credit Suisse's put warrant (24225) stands out as a choice, with an exercise price of HKD 59.88 and about 3 times leverage. Its primary advantage is the lowest premium among put warrants, offering an attractive hedging or bearish option for investors who are pessimistic about the market outlook.
The Hong Kong-listed auto sector performed strongly today, with a sector increase of 2.5%, among which $NIO-SW (09866.HK)$ Benefiting from surprisingly strong first-ever quarterly profits, its share price surged by 16.1% in half a day; $LEAPMOTOR (09863.HK)$ 、 $SERES (09927.HK)$and$GWMOTOR (02333.HK)$ Half-day gains exceeded 4.8%, $XPENG-W (09868.HK)$ 、 $GEELY AUTO (00175.HK)$ With increases of 5.6% and 8.6%, respectively, showing widespread gains across the entire industry. However, as one of the three giants of the new forces, $LI AUTO-W (02015.HK)$ Its movement has been relatively mild, with the latest rise of 1.38%, quoted at 70 yuan, significantly underperforming the sector's average level. From a technical perspective, the stock price is above the 10-day moving average (67.84 yuan) and slightly above the 30-day line (69.16 yuan), with short-term trends still within a consolidation range. The primary resistance above is at 73.2 yuan, further resistance looks towards 75.1 yuan (previous high); key support below is at 66.7 yuan, a decisive break below which could open up downside space to test the 64-yuan integer mark. Currently, Li Auto’s technical indicators show clear divergence, with heightened trading battles between bulls and bears at this position: Mostly neutral signals: stochastic oscillator (KDJ) and Williams %R are in the neutral zone, RSI indicator is at 55 levels, momentum...
Regarding Li Auto, are you currently leaning towards being bullish or bearish? Are you optimistic about Li Auto's earnings performance? Feel free to share your insights in the comments section. For more market analysis, stay tuned to 'HK Stock Warrants Jenny' for daily updates!
Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
#HongKongStocks #HangSengIndex #RealTimeAnalysis #WarrantsSelection #WarrantsStrategy #DerivativesHedging #HongKongWarrantsJenny #IdealAutomobile #02015 #AutomobileStocks$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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