BTC surpasses $75,000! Has the upward channel been fully opened?

華夏基金香港

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The Five Structural Drivers Behind Bitcoin's Strong Breakout

Summary of Key Points

After a period of consolidation in the first quarter, Bitcoin demonstrated strong breakout momentum from the end of February to early March, holding steady above $69,000 in the short term, with both technical structures and market sentiment improving in tandem. This rally is not driven by a single factor but ratherMarket sentiment, technical indicators, corporate fundamentals, regulatory expectations, and macro environmentThe result of a convergence of five forces. Notably, following the outbreak of geopolitical conflict in Iran, oil prices did not surge as expected, reducing the pressure on risk assets from stagflation trades and creating a relatively favorable liquidity window for cryptocurrencies. This article will delve into the underlying logic of Bitcoin’s recent strength from five dimensions and explore future evolution paths.

I. Coinbase Premium Turning Positive and Spot ETF Demand Recovery: US Buying Regains Pricing Power

The most critical marginal change in this Bitcoin rebound comes from the substantial recovery in buying from the US market.Coinbase Bitcoin Premium IndexAfter spending about 40 days in negative territory, turned positive at the end of February. This indicator measures the BTC price difference between Coinbase Pro and offshore platforms like Binance; turning positive typically means that spot buying from US institutional investors is strengthening, showing a marginal improvement in capital sentiment.

At the same time,US Spot Bitcoin ETFRecorded approximately $800 million in net inflows last week, ending several consecutive weeks of outflows. As a compliant channel, the fund flows of ETFs directly reflect traditional financial capital's willingness to allocate to crypto assets. The dual improvements in Coinbase premium and ETF inflows have created a 'price increase - fund inflow' positive feedback loop, significantly enhancing market sentiment compared to the sluggish period from January to early February. As market participants observed, spot demand is actively driving BTC's rise, with open interest declining while funding rates remain negative, indicating that short positions are still trapped, creating favorable conditions for sustained upward pressure.

Second, Technical Oversold Signal Resonance: A Repair Opportunity After Leverage Washout

From a technical analysis perspective, this rebound has a solid structural foundation. First,Bitcoin's funding ratehas crowded into an extremely low level of -0.02%, reflecting excessive concentration of short positions in the futures market, laying the groundwork for a short squeeze. Second,Bitcoin's Sharpe Ratio(Sharpe Ratio) has fallen to its lowest point since 2018, meaning that the return relative to its volatility is at a cyclical bottom, implying an inherent need for mean reversion from a risk-return perspective.

More notably,Bitcoin's weekly RSIonce broke below 30, entering technically oversold territory. Historically, a weekly RSI below 30 often signals an important mid-term bottom – similar scenarios occurred in late 2018, March 2020, and late 2022, after which Bitcoin started significant upward cycles within 6 to 12 months. The resonance of these three oversold indicators provides quantitative support for a short-term rebound.

Three, Circle's better-than-expected earnings ignite market sentiment: Revaluation of compliant stablecoins

The联动effect between traditional finance and crypto-native markets is also evident in this round of rallies.Circle Internet Group (NYSE: CRCL)On February 25, Circle Internet Group (NYSE: CRCL) announced its Q4 2025 earnings, which significantly exceeded market expectations: revenue reached $770 million, a year-over-year increase of 77%, surpassing analysts' expectations of $747 million; net profit was $133 million, growing over 40 times compared to $3.1 million in the same period last year; diluted earnings per share were $0.43, far exceeding the expected $0.16.

Circle’s stock price surged approximately 60% within five trading days after the earnings announcement, breaking through $96 from $61. The direct driver of this rally was the increased adoption rate of the USDC stablecoin—circulation grew by 72% year-over-year, reflecting the expanding demand for compliant stablecoins in payment and on-chain financial scenarios. As a flagship company in the crypto compliance sector, Circle's strong stock performance significantly boosted overall risk appetite in the crypto market, leading the market to reprice the logic of 'compliance as value,' with Bitcoin naturally benefiting from the sentiment spillover as the industry leader.

Four, Positive Progress on the CLARITY Act: Rising Expectations for Regulatory Clarity

Market expectations for the U.S. cryptocurrency regulatory framework are undergoing positive changes.CLARITY ActThe Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act) is expected to complete legislation by mid-2026, becoming an important catalyst for the market in the second half of the year. JPMorgan analysts noted that the bill aims to end years of regulatory confusion in the U.S., establishing a clear classification framework for digital assets—dividing tokens into 'digital commodities' regulated by the CFTC and 'digital securities' regulated by the SEC—and setting up a 'grandfather clause' to provide a path to compliance for certain tokens.

Previous negotiations on the bill in the Senate were mainly stuck on two major controversies:Stablecoin yield issueandRestrictions on conflicts of interest for government officials. The stablecoin yield issue is essentially a game between the banking industry and the crypto industry over 'deposit pricing power'—if stablecoins are allowed to distribute underlying US Treasury yields to users, it will create direct competitive pressure on the traditional bank deposit system. However, recent developments show thatthe crypto industry has made significant concessions on the stablecoin yield issue, and White House Crypto Czar David Sack also stated that banks should respond accordingly. This move greatly increases the probability of the bill passing. Once the CLARITY Act passes, it will completely reshape the market structure, paving the way for large-scale institutional investment. Bitcoin, as the most consensus-driven 'digital commodity,' will be the biggest beneficiary of regulatory clarity.

Five, oil prices did not continue to soar due to the Iran incident: Geopolitical risk premium dissipation releases liquidity

At the macro level, another key support for this round of Bitcoin's rebound comes fromgeopolitical conflicts not expanding as expected. On February 28, after the US-Israeli joint strike on Iran, the market temporarily priced in the risk of an escalation in the Middle East situation, causing crude oil and gold to soar. However, as of March 3,oil prices have retraced about half of the gap-up gainsResearch firm Kobeissi Letter also reminded investors to avoid excessive panic, stating that it is too early to define the situation as 'World War III'.

As an important pricing anchor for global liquidity, oil price stability directly impacts inflation expectations and central bank policy paths. If oil prices continue to surge, it will exacerbate market concerns about 'stagflation', forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates for a prolonged period, thereby suppressing valuations of all risk assets. Conversely, a pullback in oil prices meansGeopolitical risk premium temporarily recedes,Market liquidity expectations improve, providing a breather for high-beta assets like cryptocurrencies. The current situation indicates that the likelihood of Middle East tensions escalating may be low, creating a relatively favorable macro environment for Bitcoin.

Conclusion and Outlook

Considering the above five points, this round of Bitcoin's strength has multiple structural supports: recovery of US buying interest (Coinbase premium turning positive, $800 million inflow into ETFs), technical rebound after extreme oversold conditions, Circle’s better-than-expected earnings boosting sentiment in the compliance sector, positive developments of the CLARITY Act fueling regulatory optimism, and liquidity benefits from stable oil prices.

Under the resonance of multiple signals, bottom characteristics of the Bitcoin market may have gradually emerged, and investors can take advantage of this bottom range to focus on the following ETFs:

China AMC Bitcoin ETF (3042.HK / 83042.HK / 9042.HK), China AMC Ethereum ETF (3046.HK / 83046.HK / 9046.HK)

🎖️ Largest Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF in Hong Kong

🎖️ Most traded ETF of its kind in Hong Kong

🎖️ The most liquid ETF of its kind in Hong Kong, and the only product of its type in Hong Kong with three trading counters in HKD, USD, and RMB

China AMC Solana ETF (3460.HK / 83460.HK / 9460.HK)

🎖️ The first and only Solana ETF in Asia

🎖️ Equipped with three trading counters: HKD, USD, and RMB

$ChinaAMC Bitcoin ETF (03042.HK)$$ChinaAMC Bitcoin ETF-U (09042.HK)$$ChinaAMC Bitcoin ETF-R (83042.HK)$$ChinaAMC Ether ETF (03046.HK)$$ChinaAMC Ether ETF-U (09046.HK)$$ChinaAMC Ether ETF-R (83046.HK)$$ChinaAMC Bitcoin ETF (Unlisted Class) (HK0001012720.MF)$$SSE Composite Index (000001.SH)$$CSI 300 Index (000300.SH)$$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$$Amazon (AMZN.US)$$Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$$Meta Platforms (META.US)$$Tesla (TSLA.US)$$HSTECH (LIST91332.HK)$$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$SSE 50 Index (000016.SH)$$CSI 300 Index (000300.SH)$$CSI 1000 Index (000852.SH)$$SSE Science and Technology Innovation Board 50 Index (000688.SH)$$ChinaAMC CSI 300 Index ETF (03188.HK)$$SSE Composite Index (000001.SH)$$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$$JD.com (JD.US)$$TENCENT (00700.HK)$$Shenzhen Component Index (399001.SZ)$$Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH)$$Contemporary Amperex Technology (300750.SZ)$$PING AN (02318.HK)$$Alibaba (BABA.US)$$ICBC (01398.HK)$$CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK)$

Important Information about China AMC Bitcoin ETF

Investment involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Before investing in the China AMC Bitcoin ETF (the "Fund"), investors should refer to the fund prospectus, paying close attention to the risk factors. You should not rely solely on this material to make investment decisions. Please note:

• The Fund's investment objective is to provide investment results that closely track the performance of Bitcoin (as measured by the performance of the CME CF Bitcoin Index (APAC Close) ("Index")) before deduction of fees and expenses.

• The Fund is passively managed. A decline in the index may result in a corresponding decrease in the value of the Fund. The Fund is subject to new product risks, new index risks, tracking error risks, and discount or premium trading risks.

• Since the Fund invests directly only in Bitcoin, it is exposed to concentration risk and Bitcoin-related risks such as Bitcoin and industry risks, speculative risks, unforeseen risks, extreme price volatility risks, ownership concentration risks, regulatory risks, fraud, market manipulation and security breach risks, cybersecurity risks, potential manipulation of the Bitcoin network risks, fork risks, illegal use risks, and trading time lag risks.

• The Fund faces risks related to virtual asset trading platforms ("VATP"), custodial risks, and risks associated with differences between executable Bitcoin prices on SFC-licensed virtual asset trading platforms and the index price used for cash subscriptions and redemptions.

• Listed and non-listed classes follow different pricing and trading arrangements. Due to differing fees and costs, the net asset value per unit of each class may vary. The trading cut-off times for listed and non-listed classes also differ.

• Units of the listed class are traded at the current market price on the secondary market, while units of the non-listed class are sold through intermediaries based on the end-of-day net asset value. Non-listed class investors can redeem their units at net asset value, whereas secondary market investors of the listed class can only sell at the prevailing market price and may have to exit the Fund at a significant discount. Investors in the non-listed class may have advantages or disadvantages compared to those in the listed class.

• This fund involves multiple counterparty risks.

Please note that the above list of risks is not exhaustive; for details, please refer to the fund's prospectus.

Important Information about China AMC Ether ETF

Investing involves risks, including the loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Before investing in the China AMC Ether ETF (the "Fund"), investors should refer to the fund's prospectus, paying particular attention to the risk factors. You should not rely solely on this material to make investment decisions. Please note:

• The Fund’s investment objective is to provide investment results that closely track the performance of Ether (as measured by the CME CF Ether Index (APAC Close) (the "Index")) before fees and expenses.

• Since the Fund invests directly in Ether, it is subject to concentration risk and risks associated with Ether, such as risks related to Ether and the Ether industry, speculative risks, unforeseen risks, extreme price volatility risk, ownership concentration risk, regulatory risk, fraud, market manipulation and security breach risk, cybersecurity risk, fork risk, illegal usage risk, risks associated with Ether staking, and transaction timing risk.

• The Fund is exposed to risks associated with Virtual Asset Trading Platforms ("VATP"), custody risks, and risks related to the difference between the executable price of Ether on the SFC-licensed virtual asset trading platform and the index price for cash subscription and redemption.

• This fund involves multiple counterparty risks.

Please note that the above list of risks is not exhaustive; for details, please refer to the fund's prospectus.

Important Information about the China AMC Solana ETF

Investing involves risks, including the loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Before investing in the China AMC Solana ETF (the "Fund"), investors should refer to the fund prospectus, paying close attention to risk factors. You should not rely solely on this material to make investment decisions. Please note:

• The Fund’s investment objective is to provide investment results that closely track the performance of SOL (measured by the CME CF Solana-USD Index (APAC Close) (the "Index")) before fees and expenses.

• The Fund is passively managed. A decline in the Index may result in a corresponding decline in the value of the Fund. The Fund involves new product risk, new index risk, tracking error risk, and discount or premium trading risk.

• Since the Fund invests directly only in SOL, it is subject to concentration risk and risks associated with Solana and SOL, such as SOL and Solana industry risk, speculative risk, unforeseen risks, limited history risk, hybrid PoH and PoS mechanism risk, inflation risk, extreme price volatility risk, ownership concentration risk, regulatory risk, fraud, market manipulation and security breach risk, cybersecurity risk, network disruption risk, forking risk, illegal usage risk, and time lag risk.

• The Fund involves risks related to virtual asset trading platforms ("VATP"), custody risk, and risks associated with the difference between the enforceable price of SOL on SFC-licensed virtual asset trading platforms and the index price for cash subscriptions and redemptions.

• Listed and unlisted classes follow different pricing and trading arrangements. Due to varying fees and costs, the net asset value per unit of each class may differ. The trading cutoff times for listed and unlisted classes are different. The transaction deadlines for each class may vary.

• This fund involves multiple counterparty risks.

Please note that the above list of risks is not exhaustive; for details, please refer to the fund's prospectus.

This analysis is based on publicly available market data as of March 3, 2026. All analyses and forecasts are based on currently available information. If subsequent events lead to unexpected changes, we will promptly update our views. This report does not constitute investment advice; the opinions expressed are for reference only.

Data sources: Bloomberg, China AMC (Hong Kong), MoneyDJ, Bitget, KuCoin, The Block Beats, Cointelegraph, as of March 3, 2026.

Investment involves risks, including possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future fund returns. This document is for your reference only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities or funds, nor does it constitute any investment advice, nor is it prepared for any such offer. The publisher of this material is China AMC (HK) Limited. This material has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong.

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