Analysis: SOPR drops to the 0.92–0.94 range, macro marginal improvements unlikely to alter Bitcoin's volatile pattern

PANews reported on February 20 that Bitfinex released an analysis indicating that the decline in U.S. market inflation and rising expectations of interest rate cuts have provided psychological support for risk assets. However, the cryptocurrency market is more likely to exhibit phased fluctuations rather than a one-sided trend. The expansion of balance sheets reduces systemic liquidity risks, which historically benefits scarce assets like Bitcoin, but the current pace of liquidity recovery remains sluggish. At the start of this week, selling pressure on spot Bitcoin reemerged, with cumulative sell-offs reaching tens of billions of dollars. Although the market’s ability to absorb sell-offs has improved compared to before, on-chain metrics show that the adjusted SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) has dropped to the 0.92–0.94 range, reflecting that most coins are being transferred at a loss, with structural pressures persisting. The current macro environment provides some liquidity buffer for the crypto market, but it is insufficient to support a sustained bull market. Bitcoin has tactical rebound potential in the short term, while long-term structural upward movement still requires clearer signals of inflation retreat and confirmation of sustained spot demand.

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