Analysis of Bottom Signals After Bitcoin Price Decline

In February 2026, the price of Bitcoin plummeted, breaking below the $64,000 level, marking a more than 30% drop from the previous high of $90,500. However, multidimensional analysis suggests that multiple signals indicating a market bottom and stabilization may have emerged.

Technically, Bitcoin's weekly RSI fell below the 30 threshold, signaling oversold conditions. This signal has historically appeared only four times, and on average, prices rose by 16% in the following four days. There is an urgent need for a short-term rebound. The price decline brought Bitcoin into the key demand zone of $58,000-$69,000, which overlaps with historical support from the 2021 bull market peak and technical support from the 200-week moving average. Strong buying interest was observed, especially with large buy orders between $65,000 and $68,000, forming a short-term defense line against further declines.

From an industry perspective, $75,000 represents the break-even point for 23.3W/T mining machines. The current price is significantly below this level, causing low-efficiency miners to incur losses while only high-efficiency models remain profitable. When the price falls below shutdown levels, miners’ willingness to sell drops sharply, peaking selling pressure at the industry level. This cost line builds a solid price cushion.

The options market shows that the probability of Bitcoin rebounding to $90,000 in March is only 6%. The market’s expectation for a short-term significant rebound is rational, which is an important characteristic of bottom formation. Meanwhile, the put options with a strike price of $50,000 imply only a 20% chance of extreme decline, and institutions generally believe the likelihood of further sharp declines is low.

The policy front will bring clear positive developments as White House officials have confirmed that Trump will sign the cryptocurrency market structure bill before April 2026. This bill will establish clear rules for Bitcoin's compliant trading and custody, reducing market uncertainty and attracting compliant capital inflows, thereby laying a regulatory foundation for medium- to long-term trends.

With multiple signals resonating, the bottom characteristics of the Bitcoin market may be gradually emerging. Investors can pay attention to the China AMC Bitcoin ETF. $ChinaAMC Bitcoin ETF (03042.HK)$ 。

$ChinaAMC Bitcoin ETF (03042.HK)$$ChinaAMC Bitcoin ETF-U (09042.HK)$$ChinaAMC Bitcoin ETF-R (83042.HK)$$ChinaAMC Ether ETF (03046.HK)$$ChinaAMC Ether ETF-U (09046.HK)$$ChinaAMC Ether ETF-R (83046.HK)$$ChinaAMC Bitcoin ETF (Unlisted Class) (HK0001012720.MF)$$SSE Composite Index (000001.SH)$$CSI 300 Index (000300.SH)$$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$$Amazon (AMZN.US)$$Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$$Meta Platforms (META.US)$$Tesla (TSLA.US)$$HSTECH (LIST91332.HK)$$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$SSE 50 Index (000016.SH)$$CSI 300 Index (000300.SH)$$CSI 1000 Index (000852.SH)$$SSE Science and Technology Innovation Board 50 Index (000688.SH)$$ChinaAMC CSI 300 Index ETF (03188.HK)$$SSE Composite Index (000001.SH)$$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$$JD.com (JD.US)$$TENCENT (00700.HK)$$Shenzhen Component Index (399001.SZ)$$Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH)$$Contemporary Amperex Technology (300750.SZ)$$PING AN (02318.HK)$$Alibaba (BABA.US)$$ICBC (01398.HK)$$CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK)$

Investment involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Before investing in the China AMC Bitcoin ETF (the "Fund"), investors should refer to the fund prospectus, paying close attention to the risk factors. You should not rely solely on this material to make investment decisions. Please note:

• The Fund's investment objective is to provide investment results that closely track the performance of Bitcoin (as measured by the performance of the CME CF Bitcoin Index (APAC Close) ("Index")) before deduction of fees and expenses.

• The Fund is passively managed. A decline in the index may result in a corresponding decrease in the value of the Fund. The Fund is subject to new product risks, new index risks, tracking error risks, and discount or premium trading risks.

• Since the Fund invests directly only in Bitcoin, it is exposed to concentration risk and Bitcoin-related risks such as Bitcoin and industry risks, speculative risks, unforeseen risks, extreme price volatility risks, ownership concentration risks, regulatory risks, fraud, market manipulation and security breach risks, cybersecurity risks, potential manipulation of the Bitcoin network risks, fork risks, illegal use risks, and trading time lag risks.

• The Fund faces risks related to virtual asset trading platforms ("VATP"), custodial risks, and risks associated with differences between executable Bitcoin prices on SFC-licensed virtual asset trading platforms and the index price used for cash subscriptions and redemptions.

• Listed and non-listed classes follow different pricing and trading arrangements. Due to differing fees and costs, the net asset value per unit of each class may vary. The trading cut-off times for listed and non-listed classes also differ.

• Units of the listed class are traded at the current market price on the secondary market, while units of the non-listed class are sold through intermediaries based on the end-of-day net asset value. Non-listed class investors can redeem their units at net asset value, whereas secondary market investors of the listed class can only sell at the prevailing market price and may have to exit the Fund at a significant discount. Investors in the non-listed class may have advantages or disadvantages compared to those in the listed class.

• This fund involves multiple counterparty risks.

Please note that the above list of risks is not exhaustive; for details, please refer to the fund's prospectus.

Data source: Bloomberg, China AMC (HK), as of February 9, 2026.

Investment involves risks, including possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future fund returns. This document is for your reference only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities or funds, nor does it constitute any investment advice, nor is it prepared for any such offer. The publisher of this material is China AMC (HK) Limited. This material has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong.

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