BTC surpasses $75,000! Has the upward channel been fully opened?

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Crypto Weekly Recap | Cryptocurrency market rebounds, Bitcoin surges past $66,000, Ethereum climbs back above $1,900; MSTR posts a staggering $12.4 billion loss last quarter, founder expresses openness to 'selling coins'; Cathie Wood continues to aggressively buy crypto-related stocks and ETFs

This week, following the nomination of the hawkish Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair, institutional funds continued to flow out, exacerbating the sell-off in the cryptocurrency market $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ Bitcoin fell continuously from $79,000 at the beginning of the week, breaking through three major levels: $75,000, $70,000, and $65,000, touching a low of $60,000 $Ethereum (ETH.CC)$ Ethereum also weakened in tandem, dropping from a high of $2,396 to a low of $1,739

As of this writing, the cryptocurrency market has rebounded, with Bitcoin surpassing $66,000, currently trading at $66,450, reflecting a weekly decline of 15%; Ethereum is back above $1,900, trading at $1,963, with a weekly drop exceeding 19%.

Hot events this week

US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated there will be no 'bailout' for Bitcoin, and the $500 million worth of Bitcoin confiscated by the government has appreciated to $15 billion

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent testified in Congress that the US government will not 'bail out' the asset by requiring private banks to buy more Bitcoin during a market downturn. He emphasized that neither the Treasury Department nor the Financial Stability Oversight Council has such authority. Bessent also revealed that the $500 million worth of Bitcoin obtained by the US government through asset forfeiture has appreciated to over $15 billion. According to an executive order signed by Trump in 2025, the US can only increase its strategic reserves through asset forfeiture or budget-neutral strategies (such as converting oil or precious metals into Bitcoin), and will not purchase on the open market.

White House official: Trump to sign crypto market structure bill by April.

On February 4, according to The Bitcoin Historian, White House cryptocurrency advisor Patrick Witt stated that he believes President Trump will sign the CLARITY Act by April 3. However, this has not yet constituted an official confirmation from the White House. Previously, Trump had indicated that he hoped to complete the signing 'very soon.'

Hong Kong's stablecoin regulation is accelerating, with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority aiming to issue the first batch of licenses by March.

New progress has been made in Hong Kong's stablecoin regulation. Hong Kong Monetary Authority Chief Executive Yu Weven stated that 36 stablecoin issuer license applications have been received so far, and related evaluation work is being expedited. The goal is to issue the first batch of stablecoin licenses in March, but the number will be kept prudent, issuing only a few. Yu Weven emphasized that one of the key review points is risk management capabilities, including stablecoin use cases, reserve asset allocation, and cross-border compliance arrangements. In the future, for cross-border businesses involving mainland China, Singapore, London, and ASEAN, relevant institutions must comply with local regulatory requirements as well.

MSTR, BMNR, and Trend Research collectively face floating losses exceeding $15 billion.

On February 6, Michael Saylor’s $Strategy (MSTR.US)$ current holdings amount to approximately 713,500 BTC, with an average cost of around $76,052 per Bitcoin. Compared to the peak, it has erased over $41.3 billion in paper profits, equivalent to about 250 tons of gold, and now faces actual floating losses of approximately $6.4 billion.

Tom Lee’s$Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR.US)$ current holdings amount to approximately 4.29 million ETH, with an average cost of around $3,849 per Ethereum, resulting in losses exceeding $8.1 billion, equivalent to about 49 tons of gold.

Yi Lihua's Trend Research holds approximately 463,000 Ethereum tokens, with an average cost of around $3,180 per token. The loss has exceeded $6.47 billion, and the liquidation price is above $1,600, roughly equivalent to four tons of gold.

Perspective

Deutsche Bank: Bitcoin's recent decline reflects a loss of market confidence rather than a collapse in market structure

In a report, Deutsche Bank pointed out that Bitcoin's recent decline reflects more of a loss of market confidence rather than a collapse in market structure. The report identifies three main factors behind the decline: sustained institutional capital outflows, decoupling from traditional market anchors, and waning regulatory momentum. Nonetheless, the report views this phase as a market reset, testing whether Bitcoin can move beyond belief-driven rallies and regain support from regulators and institutional capital.

The report shows that institutional selling pressure is the direct source of stress. Since October last year, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have continued to record net outflows, with over $7 billion flowing out in November, and about $2 billion and $3 billion flowing out in December and January respectively. Trading volume has shrunk accordingly, making prices more prone to sharp fluctuations. The sluggish progress of regulatory developments has also exacerbated market volatility. The bipartisan Digital Asset Market Clarity Act has stalled in Congress due to disputes over stablecoin provisions, causing Bitcoin's 30-day volatility to rise back above 40%, close to levels seen at the end of October last year. Additionally, sentiment indicators show that retail interest is cooling off.

Michael Burry: If Bitcoin continues to fall, it may lead to 'catastrophic consequences' for treasury companies and tokenized precious metals

Michael Burry noted on Monday that if Bitcoin falls another 10%, the most aggressive Bitcoin treasury companies $Strategy (MSTR.US)$ will face billions of dollars in losses and will be largely unable to access capital markets. He warned that a drop in Bitcoin could trigger 'catastrophic consequences', including spillover effects into broader markets and a 'collateral death spiral' for tokenized precious metal futures.

Burry added that the emergence of spot ETFs has only intensified Bitcoin’s speculative nature while increasing its correlation with equity markets. Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 index recently approached 0.50. Theoretically, as losing positions grow, liquidations will actively kick in. Since late November, Bitcoin ETFs have recorded some of their largest single-day fund outflows, with three instances occurring in the last ten days of January. This trend suggests that institutional investors' confidence in Bitcoin is waning, and what was originally viewed as a tool to expand Bitcoin adoption may instead accelerate sell-offs during market downturns.

Burry pointed out that the decline in cryptocurrencies is partly responsible for the recent collapse in gold and silver, as corporate treasurers and speculators need to reduce risk by selling profitable positions in tokenized gold and silver futures. If Bitcoin falls to $50,000, miners will go bankrupt, and 'tokenized precious metal futures will collapse into a black hole with no buyers.'

Bernstein: Short-term crypto bear market may reverse within 2026, Bitcoin could bottom out around the $60,000 range

Investment research firm Bernstein noted in its latest report that the crypto market may still be in a short-term bear cycle, but this trend is expected to reverse within 2026 (most likely in the first half). Bitcoin prices may bottom out near the previous cycle's high (around the $60,000 range) before establishing a higher price foundation. The institutional cycle has made the structure of this market different from past cycles driven by retail investors, which were marked by extreme highs and lows.

The report pointed out that US policy developments could serve as catalysts, such as the government using confiscated Bitcoin to build a strategic reserve or changes in the Federal Reserve’s leadership. Moreover, institutional participation remains resilient with limited ETF outflows, and there hasn’t been large-scale miner leverage liquidation like in previous cycles. Corporate holders (such as Strategy) have continued to accumulate during the downturn, while miners have diversified their revenue sources into AI-related data center businesses. Bernstein concluded that the current weakness might represent a late-stage correction rather than the beginning of a prolonged winter, and the market reversal in 2026 could initiate the “most profoundly impactful cycle” for Bitcoin.

Bitwise CIO: Short-position traders are viewing this pullback as a buying opportunity, and crypto-native investors still dominate the market

On February 6, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated that he had visited several financial advisors this week, who generally remain optimistic about the market. Those who haven't yet invested see this pullback as a good buying opportunity, while those who previously bought plan to continue holding. If there’s one thing this pullback has taught us, it’s that ETF investors are not the market leaders; crypto-native investors still dominate. Over the past year, we've spent too much time thinking about marginal buyers (ETF investors) and have overlooked HODLrs (crypto-native investors).

The decline in Bitcoin has once again raised concerns about the 'four-year cycle,' but analysts believe the likelihood of an 80% level crash is low

On February 4, K33 analysis indicated that the current downturn differs structurally from those in 2018 and 2022, with a lower probability of an approximately 80% peak-to-trough decline

Vetle Lunde, Head of Research at K33, pointed out that although recent market behavior bears similarities to historical deep corrections, the current environment features stronger institutional participation, inflows into compliant products, and a more accommodative interest rate backdrop, without the systemic deleveraging events seen in 2022

He also mentioned that some 'bottoming signals' have started to emerge, including extreme pressure readings in spot trading volumes and the derivatives market, though these are still insufficient to confirm a definitive bottom. Lunde believes the key level is around $74,000Support LevelIf it breaks below this, the price could drop to $69,000 or even the $58,000 area near the 200-week moving average; overall, K33 views the current price range as a potential allocation zone for long-term investors

Cryptocurrency concept tracker

Epicenter of the cryptocurrency crash: MSTR reports massive losses, Saylor open to 'selling coins'

$Strategy (MSTR.US)$ The wealth-creation myth is turning into a 'death spiral' crisis: as Bitcoin falls below the cost line, the company reported a staggering quarterly loss of $124 billion, with its stock price plummeting 80% from its peak. The once steadfast 'buy-only, no-sell' belief has been shaken, with founder Saylor stating that selling Bitcoin has become an option. Facing $8.2 billion in debt and the collapse of valuation premiums, this leveraged bet on Bitcoin is now facing its toughest life-or-death test

IREN's net profit for the last quarter turned from profit to loss

$IREN Ltd (IREN.US)$ Revenue for Q2 of fiscal year 2026 was $184.7 million, compared to $240.3 million in Q1; net loss was $155.4 million, compared to a net profit of $384.6 million in Q1

Cathie Wood continues to increase holdings in cryptocurrency-related companies and ETFs

During the ongoing market downturn, Cathie Wood continues to be optimistic about the crypto ecosystem. In her latest portfolio moves, she purchased$Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR.US)$ 145,500 shares and her own Bitcoin ETF $ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB.US)$ 135,100 shares, adding $Bullish (BLSH.US)$ 125,200 shares, $Robinhood (HOOD.US)$ 89,700 shares, as well as $Block (XYZ.US)$ 31,200 shares, while also allocating to the stablecoin giant $Circle (CRCL.US)$ and exchange $Coinbase (COIN.US)$ 。

Bullish announced a fourth-quarter loss of $563.6 million

Crypto trading platform $Bullish (BLSH.US)$ released its Q4 2025 earnings report, showing a net loss of $563.6 million, compared to a net profit of $158.5 million in the same period last year; with a loss per share of $3.73, mainly attributed to non-cash digital asset re-measurement losses. The report shows that spot trading volume on the platform for the quarter was $64.3 billion. The company launched its spot trading business in the US last September and simultaneously introduced options trading, with options trading volume reaching $9 billion for the quarter.

Gemini will close all customer accounts in the UK, EU, and Australia.

According to Bloomberg, cryptocurrency exchange $Gemini Space Station (GEMI.US)$ Announced that it will close all customer accounts in the UK, EU, and Australia. According to its announcement released on February 5, starting from March 5, accounts in these regions will enter a withdrawal-only mode, with plans to complete the full closure one month later. Meanwhile, Gemini has ceased new account registrations and all incentive programs in these regions.

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