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A Must-See for the Crypto Market! The CLARITY Act’s Major Test is Approaching—Which Assets Will Seize the Opportunity?
If you hold cryptocurrencies or are interested in them, you must pay close attention toThe CLARITY Act(Full name: Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025) and its progress.
For the crypto market, regulatory uncertainty has been a persistent issue hindering industry development.The review of this bill could become a key turning point for the US crypto market moving from chaos to institutionalization.。
It will directly determine the future regulatory rules for crypto assets in the US and whether Bitcoin, Ethereum, and various altcoins move towards compliant prosperity or continue to struggle in a gray area. It is also a crucial signal as to whether institutional funds will dare to enter on a large scale, so its progress will naturally affect the future direction of the global crypto market.
The following discussion will mainly focus on“what it is, how it’s progressing, and how to respond”in several dimensions.
CLARITY Act: What exactly is it? Why is it important?
Simply put, the CLARITY Act is a “cryptocurrency classification guide” and a “regulatory territory map.”
The core content of the CLARITY Act can be summarized as the 'three-part approach':
One type is digital commodities: These are decentralized assets whose value is directly tied to the functionality of the blockchain system (such as Bitcoin, Ethereum), excluding securities, derivatives, or stablecoins. This part falls under the jurisdiction of the CFTC, which is positive for the market because the CFTC's regulation is generally more lenient and market-oriented compared to the SEC.
One type is an Investment Contract Asset.If a token issuance is for financing purposes (e.g., ICO) and the asset itself is a peer-to-peer on-chain asset, then it will be defined as an 'Investment Contract Asset' during the issuance phase. It falls under securities and is strictly regulated by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The issuer needs to register and disclose information, similar to issuing stocks, ensuring strict compliance, and cannot arbitrarily exploit retail investors.
However, this 'security' status is temporary. When the asset enters the secondary market and is traded among regular holders, its nature may change. More importantly, the bill sets up a 'mature blockchain' certification pathway for project teams: once the blockchain network is proven to be sufficiently decentralized and not controlled by a single entity, its native token can officially 'graduate,' transitioning from SEC jurisdiction to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulatory framework as a 'digital commodity.'
Another type is Payment Stablecoin.These are stablecoins used for payment or settlement and are regulated by banking supervisory authorities. However, the SEC and CFTC retain anti-fraud jurisdiction over their transactions.
From the perspective of regulatory agencies, the division of responsibilities is also clear: the CFTC is responsible for anti-fraud and anti-manipulation enforcement in digital commodities; the SEC oversees the issuance and disclosure regulation of Investment Contract Assets; stablecoin issuers are primarily regulated by banking supervisory authorities.
A long-standing pain point in the crypto community has been the regulatory divide between the SEC and CFTC. The SEC argues that most tokens are securities subject to its strict regulation and has initiated numerous enforcement actions accordingly. The CFTC tends to classify many assets as commodities but has limited legal authority over their spot markets, focusing mainly on anti-fraud and anti-manipulation enforcement. This unclear division of responsibilities places the market in a gray area, making it difficult to determine a compliance path, which suppresses innovation and discourages traditional capital inflows.
Once the rules are clear, with a well-defined compliance path, it could attract traditional large funds (such as investment funds and banks) to enter confidently. In the long run, this would make the crypto market more regulated and stable, potentially raising the overall market's value floor.
In addition, this bill provides unprecedented legal certainty and compliance paths for various market participants.For example:
It establishes a 'safe harbor' for decentralized finance (DeFi) innovators: the bill provides legal exemptions ('safe harbor' provisions) for blockchain developers, non-custodial service providers (such as wallet suppliers), node operators, etc., as long as they do not have actual control over user assets, thus avoiding the need to register as financial intermediaries. This aims to protect underlying technological innovation. However, this provision remains highly controversial at present.
It paved a 'compliance pathway' for traditional capital: explicitly allowing traditional financial institutions such as banks to engage in digital asset-related businesses. At the same time, it created a brand-new license category called 'Digital Commodity Exchange (DCE),' providing a clear compliance framework for existing crypto exchanges and traditional exchanges (such as Nasdaq) to attract large-scale traditional investment.
A 'firewall' has been established to protect investors: For tokens identified as 'investment contract assets,' the bill imposes statutory lock-up periods (vesting schedules) on token sales by issuers, teams, and early investors to prevent harm to public investors in the early stages of projects. Additionally, mandatory securities-grade disclosure requirements will make token distribution, team holdings, and project finances more transparent.
An 'arbitration mechanism' for regulatory disputes has also been established: To resolve potential jurisdictional conflicts between the SEC and CFTC, the bill sets up a statutory cross-agency consultation and dispute resolution process, aiming to avoid regulatory deadlock and provide market certainty as soon as possible.
It also provides 'transitional provisions' for ETF assets: Tokens listed as core ETF assets before January 1, 2026, can be considered 'non-affiliated assets' and treated equally with Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), exempt from additional disclosure obligations, offering a 'fast track' for some mainstream tokens.
……
This bill is like building a clear highway for the crypto world; although there are speed limits and cameras (regulation), it marks the end of the previous wilderness era where operators could face sudden fines or roadblocks at any time.
The game enters deeper waters, with January seen as a critical legislative window.
However, the path towards consensus hasn't been so smooth.There is currently some resistance to the progress of the bill.。
The first issue lies in the extent of DeFi regulation.Traditional Wall Street financial institutions have expressed concerns over money laundering, evading sanctions, and national security risks, arguing that many DeFi activities should fall under securities regulation. They warn that overly broad exemptions for the crypto industry may undermine investor protection, which directly conflicts with the crypto industry's desire to safeguard developers.
Whether stablecoins should be allowed to generate returns (pay interest) has also become a key point of debate.The banking industry is lobbying to prohibit stablecoin issuers from transferring reserve asset returns to holders, aiming to prevent deposits from flowing out of the traditional banking system. The cryptocurrency industry opposes this and emphasizes that the passed Payment Stablecoin Bill (such as the GENIUS Act) has already addressed these concerns and does not wish to be overly restricted.
There are also disputes between political parties.Democratic lawmakers are concerned that the bill does not provide enough consumer protection, especially regarding blanket DeFi regulatory provisions that do not align with the decentralized nature; Republicans, on the other hand, want to reduce regulatory intervention. Additionally, ethical clauses prohibiting presidential family members from engaging in specific crypto businesses have further intensified bipartisan negotiations.
Due to ongoing disagreements, the review of this bill has been postponed since last year until now, January 2026. Below is an update on the latest timeline for this bill:
January is seen as a critical legislative window. The Banking Committee will review the bill on January 15, while the Agriculture Committee’s review will take place in the last week of January, which is a crucial step for the bill to proceed to a full Senate vote. However, uncertainty remains regarding the voting outcome, and time constraints could affect the chances of passage.
However, it has been reported that Wall Street and cryptocurrency industry representatives recently held a private closed-door meeting to resolve differences over the CLARITY Act. Participants included the major Wall Street trade organization 'Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association' (SIFMA), which had previously opposed regulatory exemptions for decentralized finance (DeFi) in the bill. The meeting was described as 'constructive' and 'fruitful' on issues like DeFi regulation.
If no significant progress is made in January, the bill may be delayed by more than six months due to subsequent federal spending deadlines and midterm election political agendas, potentially impacting market sentiment.
According to data from the prediction market Polymarket, the market is betting there's about a 67% chance the bill will be signed into law in 2026. Optimistic forecasts suggest that if the committee reviews go smoothly, the bill could be finalized within 2-3 months.
Investment Outlook: Which assets will be impacted? How should investors respond?
This bill will lead different types of assets down completely different future paths. Let's take a look.Specifically, let’s examine which assets will be affected, how they’ll be impacted, and what you can do right now.
Beyond focusing on specific targets, it is also important to get a sense of the investment rhythm:
In the short term, focus on key events and watch out for volatility. Remember the dates January 15, January 27, and subsequent voting days—these are times when market sentiment may fluctuate significantly. During this phase, avoid using high leverage, as prices could surge or plummet during critical periods, making it easy to face liquidation when trading with borrowed funds. At the same time, if the market falls due to negative news like delays in the bill, consider gradually buying assets that stand to benefit the most clearly.
In the medium term, adjust your portfolio to embrace mainstream assets. For instance, consider increasing the proportion of 'digital commodities' in your portfolio, while allocating some funds towards assets that have potential to pass 'graduation exams,' or stocks acting as bridges in the traditional world, or even DeFi tokens like UNI that may offer 'dividends.'
In the long term, keep an eye on emerging opportunities and look for the next big thing, while distancing yourself from fringe assets. After regulations become clearer, new trends such as tokenized real estate and bond markets (RWA) will likely emerge, potentially offering fresh opportunities. Meanwhile, projects that are centralized, non-compliant, or ambiguous in nature might face increasing difficulty, so consider avoiding them.
In summary, regardless of whether the CLARITY Act passes in one go during the coming weeks of deliberation, it has already charted an irreversible developmental path for the crypto market: institutionalization, compliance, and professionalization. Although this road will bring short-term pain and volatility, in the long run, it brings unprecedented certainty to the entire industry.
For every market participant, this means a fundamental shift in the rules of the game. The speculative era of relying on hype and追捧ing 'shady' projects is coming to an end, while a value investing era focused on project fundamentals, technical strength, and compliance prospects is beginning. As an investor, instead of passively waiting, it’s better to proactively understand and adapt to these changes. So get ready and stay tuned!
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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