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Options Trading in Action | A ‘Triple Bottom’ at the Start of the Year? How to Deploy MSTR, IREN, COIN and Other Crypto Stocks

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At the start of 2026, cryptocurrencies shook off the year-end gloom with prices quickly recovering and rising continuously, though there has been a recent pullback. On January 2nd, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a single-day net inflow of $471 million, hitting the highest record since mid-November 2025, successfully reversing the previous trend of continuous net outflows. Technically, Bitcoin also formed a 'triple bottom' pattern.

In 2025, Bitcoin's price fell by 6%, marking the only year since its inception that broke a three-year consecutive rise. This also sparked discussions on whether 2026 will break the four-year cycle of declines. Continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, along with the rise of asset tokenization and prediction markets (Polymarket), could become key narratives driving the next wave of market activity.

Cryptocurrency-related stocks serve as compliant proxies and value representations within the Crypto world, providing investors with alternative avenues.The movement of these stock proxies typically maintains a high correlation with major cryptocurrencies but often exhibits more pronounced volatility due to the叠加of corporate leverage and market sentiment, making them excellent targets for investors deploying option strategies.

However, it should be noted that even among crypto-related stocks, performances can vary drastically. Since the second half of 2025, Bitcoin treasury companies $Strategy (MSTR.US)$ have plummeted over 60%, well-known exchanges $Coinbase (COIN.US)$ have also pulled back over 26%, while mining firms $IREN Ltd (IREN.US)$ surged over 200%.

Why is there such significant divergence between different types, and what options strategies are available for deployment?OptionsSir brings you the latest insights for fellow investors.

Strategy: Bitcoin treasury magic fades, opportunity arises to secure MSCI position?

These companies are not traditional blockchain technology firms; their core strategy is to use crypto assets as the primary reserve asset of the enterprise. $Strategy (MSTR.US)$ MicroStrategy is a pioneer and typical representative of this model, having continuously increased its Bitcoin holdings since 2020.

The company raised funds by issuing stocks and low-interest convertible bonds to purchase Bitcoin in the open market, driving up the price of Bitcoin. This, in turn, further boosts the company's stock price, allowing it to raise more money at a lower cost to continue buying Bitcoin.This positive cycle is referred to as the 'Bitcoin Flywheel.'

In the early days, MSTR's unique model attracted many investors. Historically, its stock price traded at a significant premium to its Net Asset Value (NAV) based on its Bitcoin holdings—over eight times in the initial public offering phase, and nearly four times during the 2024 Bitcoin bull market. Currently, however, the company’s NAV has dropped below 1, and the once fast-spinning flywheel has stalled.

Data source: MSTR Tracker.

The pullback in Bitcoin triggered a negative cycle. What was previously aggressive financing has turned into a debt burden, and with the premium fading, borrowing to buy Bitcoin is no longer profitable for shareholders.

In recent years, newly launched Bitcoin spot ETFs such as IBIT have provided investors with a more convenient investment channel, while the 'crypto treasury' model has also started to be imitated by other companies, such as $SharpLink (SBET.US)$ and $Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR.US)$ (all of which performed poorly), diverting capital that would otherwise have flowed into the company.

As the company pivoted to digital assets as its core investment, deviating from its original main business, index provider giant MSCI considered removing MSTR from mainstream equity indices, which could result in the outflow of tens of billions of dollars in passive funds if implemented.However, on January 7, MSCI announced that the current approach will remain unchanged, eliminating a major short-term uncertainty.

MSTR is currently attempting to address the crisis by building cash reserves and exploring new revenue sources such as Bitcoin lending. However, whether it can regain momentum still heavily depends on a strong recovery in Bitcoin prices. Given that the appeal of the treasury model is no longer what it used to be, it is expected that MSTR's NAV will struggle to return to previous highs.

After a long period of pullback, MSTR's stock price has returned to the level of July 2024, and the volatility has significantly decreased since mid-December. As of the U.S. market close on January 7, the IV rank was 24, with an IV percentile of 39%, which is relatively low in historical terms.

If uncertain about the stock's direction but expecting increased volatility, one can adopt a Long Straddle or Long Strangle strategy by simultaneously buying Calls and Puts. Profit can be achieved as long as the stock price moves significantly away from the strike price. When market consensus is mixed or expected volatility is high, these strategies capture opportunities in both upward and downward directions, avoiding the risk of one-sided bets.

The Long Straddle/Strangle strategies are essentially the same, with the only difference being the selection of strike prices:A Long Straddle typically involves buying two at-the-money options, where the strike price equals the stock’s market price, while a Long Strangle usually selects two out-of-the-money options. The smaller the difference between strike prices, the higher the initial cost of opening the position, but the less the stock price needs to fluctuate to reach profitability.

IREN: Mining companies hitching a ride on the AI express

Market interest in pure cryptocurrency exposure is gradually giving way to the pursuit of greater resilience and unique investment logic. $IREN Ltd (IREN.US)$ By transitioning from mining to becoming an AI computing power platform, it has become the focus of market attention.Its core investment thesis has shifted from reliance on Bitcoin price fluctuations to whether it can efficiently convert its vast, low-cost electricity and land resources into scarce computing assets serving the artificial intelligence boom.

Due to power plant retirements and increased electricity demand brought by AI, the U.S. Department of Energy estimates that the U.S. will need to add 100GW of peak power supply by 2030, 50GW of which will be directly used for data centers.Companies engaged in crypto mining operations own ready-to-use computing infrastructure near major cities with high communication bandwidth, and electricity costs generally range between 3~5 cents per kWh, offering a cost advantage and naturally suiting them for AI cloud service businesses.

With the growth in computing demand, most crypto mining farms have announced transitions to AI data centers. In addition to IREN, $Riot Platforms (RIOT.US)$ 、 $CleanSpark (CLSK.US)$ 、 $Applied Digital (APLD.US)$ Miners like these have recently achieved solid returns.

IREN is the most determined among Bitcoin mining companies to transition, and its long-term planning includes the largest power capacity.The company's core assets are located at the Sweetwater data center hub in Texas, USA, with land reserves exceeding 1,300 acres, laying a foundation for future expansion.

By the end of 2025, IREN signed a five-year, $97 billion AI cloud services agreement with Microsoft. This contract is expected to contribute $3.4 billion in annual recurring revenue to IREN by the end of 2026.Based on market cap per watt, IREN is more cost-effective than $CoreWeave (CRWV.US)$and $NEBIUS (NBIS.US)$other emerging cloud service providers and has a healthier balance sheet.

Data source: Goldman Sachs Securities

The investment thesis for IREN has shifted from trading Bitcoin price volatility to investing in an AI infrastructure company with long-term contracts, scarce physical assets, and a clear growth trajectory. If you're bullish on the AI narrative, in addition to simply deploying Calls, you can also adoptBull Call Spreadand other moderately bullish strategies. This involves buying a Call with a lower strike price and selling a Call with a higher strike price. While maximum profit is capped, it also reduces overall deployment costs.

It should be noted that IREN's grand vision is highly dependent on the critical execution in 2026. The challenges it faces include: the substantial capital expenditure required for the GPU expansion plan may bring financing pressure or equity dilution; progress in key power infrastructure will directly impact revenue realization; and the stock price remains affected by crypto market conditions, requiring close tracking of project execution progress and earnings guidance through option strategies.

Coinbase: Could prediction markets + asset tokenization lead to a revaluation?

$Coinbase (COIN.US)$ As a well-known cryptocurrency exchange, Coinbase is the primary gateway for U.S. and global investors to participate in the crypto market. Coinbase’s revenue still heavily relies on transaction fees, making both its performance and stock price highly sensitive to market conditions.Although short-term deviations exist, Coinbase’s stock price has generally followed Bitcoin over the long term.

The company has been striving to smooth out cyclical fluctuations through diversification efforts, but significant results have yet to materialize. Revenue from subscription and services such as stablecoins and staking has grown, but has not fully offset the decline in trading revenue. It also continues to face compliance-related challenges including data security and legal disputes.

The tokenization of assets + event contracts could potentially bring new growth opportunities for Coinbase.Starting in the second half of 2026, U.S. trust and clearing companies will custody and record tokenized securities on pre-approved blockchains (which means stocks like Microsoft can be traded directly in the crypto market). $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ Tokenized stocks are expected to be traded alongside traditional stocks as early as the third quarter.

Once tokenized stocks go live, whether the crypto market is bullish or bearish, as long as people continue trading these tokenized stocks, Coinbase will generate revenue, which could reduce the company's heavy reliance on crypto market trends.

Additionally, predictions regarding the Federal Reserve chair nominee have recently gained significant attention. Such event contracts could also help Coinbase expand into new business areas. Monthly betting volumes on mainstream platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi surged from less than $100 million at the beginning of 2024 to over $13 billion by the end of 2025, reflecting explosive demand for event contracts.

In December 2025, Coinbase announced the launch of a prediction market service in collaboration with Kalshi. As event contracts continue to develop, this initiative is also expected to significantly boost the platform's activity and retention rate.It is worth mentioning that,$Robinhood (HOOD.US)$Although it still mainly focuses on 'real-world' trading such as stocks and options, active efforts are also being made in these two areas.

If you are optimistic about the catalysts mentioned above and have not yet established a position, investors may consider using Leaps Calls for positioning. The current implied volatility (IV) percentile for COIN is at 8%, with an IV rank of 10, indicating low volatility, which is advantageous for option buyers.Progress in stock tokenization is expected to primarily occur in the second half of 2026. One might choose to deploy calls expiring at the end of the year or in Q3, representing a dual bet on both the recovery of the crypto market and its own business expansion.

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Disclaimer

This content does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion, or guarantee regarding any securities, financial products, or instruments. The risk of loss in trading options can be substantial. In certain circumstances, the losses you incur may exceed the initial margin deposited. Even if you set contingency orders, such as “stop-loss” or “limit” orders, these may not necessarily prevent losses. Market conditions may render such orders unexecutable. You may be required to deposit additional margin within a short period. If you fail to provide the required amount within the specified time, your open positions may be liquidated. However, you will still be responsible for any shortfall in your account resulting from such liquidation. Therefore, before trading, you should thoroughly research and understand options, and carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you based on your financial situation and investment objectives. If you trade options, you should familiarize yourself with the procedures for exercising options and the rights and obligations upon exercise and expiration.

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