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【Awarded】With the election stalemate, how to make asset allocation "advanced and retreated"?
投基商学院
joined discussion · Nov 3, 2020 19:51 ·

The US election affects market nerves, and gold is likely to be bullish in November

Gold safe-haven demand may increase
After entering autumn and winter, a new wave of the epidemic spread again and caused panic in the US and European countries, and the government was forced to reinstate restrictions. This is expected to hit the newly recovering economy hard and cause the government to consider further easing measures, and increased liquidity will support precious metals prices.
On the other hand, the upcoming US election will also trigger risk aversion in the market. Morgan Stanley expects that the election results will be decided before the Thanksgiving holiday on November 26. This will leave the market with a period of uncertainty for 3 weeks, and safe-haven demand for gold may increase.
Gold safe-haven demand may increase After entering autumn and winter, a new wave of the epidemic spread again and caused panic in the US and European countries, and the government was forced to reinstate restrictions. This is expected to hit the newly recovering economy hard and cause the government to consider further easing measures, and increased liquidity will support precious metals prices. On the other hand, the upcoming US election will also trigger risk aversion in the market. Morgan Stanley expects that the election results will be decided before the Thanksgiving holiday on November 26. This will leave the market with a period of uncertainty for 3 weeks, and safe-haven demand for gold may increase. Market performance at the end of the gold month since 2001. Judging from seasonal patterns, Data Talks studied monthly gold data since 2001. The results showed that the probability of gold rising in November was 57.89%, with an average rise or fall of 1.26%. From the perspective of the US election, in the five US elections since 2000, election day was mostly an inflection point in the gold market: in the month before election day, gold showed a clear trend, and then the trend reversed. Gold's performance before and after election day in previous US elections can be seen from the table above. With the exception of 2004, the trend of gold on the 22 trading days before election day and the 15 trading days after that was the opposite. Therefore, it is possible to consider the performance of gold before election day and trade gold in reverse after election day. It is worth noting that usually the invoicing day for the US election is in the early morning of the day after the election day, and counting votes in this round may take even longer...
Market performance at the end of the gold month since 2001Looking at seasonal patterns, Data Talks studied monthly gold data since 2001. The results showed that the probability of gold rising in November was 57.89%, with an average rise or fall of 1.26%.
From the perspective of the US election, in the five US elections since 2000, Election Day was mostly an inflection point in the gold market:Gold showed a clear trend in the month leading up to election day, then the trend reversed after that.
Gold safe-haven demand may increase After entering autumn and winter, a new wave of the epidemic spread again and caused panic in the US and European countries, and the government was forced to reinstate restrictions. This is expected to hit the newly recovering economy hard and cause the government to consider further easing measures, and increased liquidity will support precious metals prices. On the other hand, the upcoming US election will also trigger risk aversion in the market. Morgan Stanley expects that the election results will be decided before the Thanksgiving holiday on November 26. This will leave the market with a period of uncertainty for 3 weeks, and safe-haven demand for gold may increase. Market performance at the end of the gold month since 2001. Judging from seasonal patterns, Data Talks studied monthly gold data since 2001. The results showed that the probability of gold rising in November was 57.89%, with an average rise or fall of 1.26%. From the perspective of the US election, in the five US elections since 2000, election day was mostly an inflection point in the gold market: in the month before election day, gold showed a clear trend, and then the trend reversed. Gold's performance before and after election day in previous US elections can be seen from the table above. With the exception of 2004, the trend of gold on the 22 trading days before election day and the 15 trading days after that was the opposite. Therefore, it is possible to consider the performance of gold before election day and trade gold in reverse after election day. It is worth noting that usually the invoicing day for the US election is in the early morning of the day after the election day, and counting votes in this round may take even longer...
Gold's performance before and after election day in previous US elections can be seen from the table above. With the exception of 2004, the trend of gold on the 22 trading days before election day and the 15 trading days after that was the opposite. Therefore, it is possible to consider the performance of gold before election day and trade gold in reverse after election day.
It is worth noting that the invoicing day for the US election is usually in the early morning of the day after the election day, and counting of votes in this round may take longer or even trigger litigation. If this were to happen, it would be very similar to the situation in 2000. At that time, it took 36 days for the election results to be successfully released. During this period, gold first showed an upward trend. During the period when the situation gradually became clear in December and the results had not yet been announced, the gold trend reversed. The situation in 2000 may become a reference for this round of general elections.
Gold safe-haven demand may increase After entering autumn and winter, a new wave of the epidemic spread again and caused panic in the US and European countries, and the government was forced to reinstate restrictions. This is expected to hit the newly recovering economy hard and cause the government to consider further easing measures, and increased liquidity will support precious metals prices. On the other hand, the upcoming US election will also trigger risk aversion in the market. Morgan Stanley expects that the election results will be decided before the Thanksgiving holiday on November 26. This will leave the market with a period of uncertainty for 3 weeks, and safe-haven demand for gold may increase. Market performance at the end of the gold month since 2001. Judging from seasonal patterns, Data Talks studied monthly gold data since 2001. The results showed that the probability of gold rising in November was 57.89%, with an average rise or fall of 1.26%. From the perspective of the US election, in the five US elections since 2000, election day was mostly an inflection point in the gold market: in the month before election day, gold showed a clear trend, and then the trend reversed. Gold's performance before and after election day in previous US elections can be seen from the table above. With the exception of 2004, the trend of gold on the 22 trading days before election day and the 15 trading days after that was the opposite. Therefore, it is possible to consider the performance of gold before election day and trade gold in reverse after election day. It is worth noting that usually the invoicing day for the US election is in the early morning of the day after the election day, and counting votes in this round may take even longer...
Similar K-line trends in gold history Judging from historical similar trends, Data Talks refers to the daily trend of gold over the past 20 trading days to find similar price trends over the past 19 years. The results showed that in the 9 time periods with the highest correlation coefficient, it rose 6 times and remained flat 3 times in the next 20 trading days.This means that from the perspective of a similar K line, there is a high probability that gold will rise in November, which is about 66.67%.
Gold safe-haven demand may increase After entering autumn and winter, a new wave of the epidemic spread again and caused panic in the US and European countries, and the government was forced to reinstate restrictions. This is expected to hit the newly recovering economy hard and cause the government to consider further easing measures, and increased liquidity will support precious metals prices. On the other hand, the upcoming US election will also trigger risk aversion in the market. Morgan Stanley expects that the election results will be decided before the Thanksgiving holiday on November 26. This will leave the market with a period of uncertainty for 3 weeks, and safe-haven demand for gold may increase. Market performance at the end of the gold month since 2001. Judging from seasonal patterns, Data Talks studied monthly gold data since 2001. The results showed that the probability of gold rising in November was 57.89%, with an average rise or fall of 1.26%. From the perspective of the US election, in the five US elections since 2000, election day was mostly an inflection point in the gold market: in the month before election day, gold showed a clear trend, and then the trend reversed. Gold's performance before and after election day in previous US elections can be seen from the table above. With the exception of 2004, the trend of gold on the 22 trading days before election day and the 15 trading days after that was the opposite. Therefore, it is possible to consider the performance of gold before election day and trade gold in reverse after election day. It is worth noting that usually the invoicing day for the US election is in the early morning of the day after the election day, and counting votes in this round may take even longer...
The chart above shows the main daily trend of Shanghai Gold. After breaking through the downward trend line, the price was blocked by Fibonacci's 38.2% pullback and falling to 408/9 levels. The MACD indicator shows that downward price pressure may increase. The key support below is the resonance support composed of Fibonacci's 50% pullback level of 393/4, the previous low, and trend lines, which means that the downward space for Shanghai Gold may be limited.
If the price rebounds upward, the upper resistance is 408/9, followed by Fibonacci's 23.6% pullback level of 425/6.
Gold safe-haven demand may increase After entering autumn and winter, a new wave of the epidemic spread again and caused panic in the US and European countries, and the government was forced to reinstate restrictions. This is expected to hit the newly recovering economy hard and cause the government to consider further easing measures, and increased liquidity will support precious metals prices. On the other hand, the upcoming US election will also trigger risk aversion in the market. Morgan Stanley expects that the election results will be decided before the Thanksgiving holiday on November 26. This will leave the market with a period of uncertainty for 3 weeks, and safe-haven demand for gold may increase. Market performance at the end of the gold month since 2001. Judging from seasonal patterns, Data Talks studied monthly gold data since 2001. The results showed that the probability of gold rising in November was 57.89%, with an average rise or fall of 1.26%. From the perspective of the US election, in the five US elections since 2000, election day was mostly an inflection point in the gold market: in the month before election day, gold showed a clear trend, and then the trend reversed. Gold's performance before and after election day in previous US elections can be seen from the table above. With the exception of 2004, the trend of gold on the 22 trading days before election day and the 15 trading days after that was the opposite. Therefore, it is possible to consider the performance of gold before election day and trade gold in reverse after election day. It is worth noting that usually the invoicing day for the US election is in the early morning of the day after the election day, and counting votes in this round may take even longer...
The picture above shows the international gold daily trend. Since mid-September, the price has been fluctuating sideways. The upper end of the range is Fibonacci's 23.6% correction level of 1928, and the lower edge is around 1862. Currently, the price is hampered by the lower end of the range. If the price falls below the 1862 support, we will see the 1800 mark.
If the price rises and breaks through 1928, the upper resistance will be at the 2000 mark.In summary, judging from seasonal patterns and similar K-line performance, there is a high probability that gold will rise in November; at the same time, given that this round of elections may become a protracted war, referring to the situation in 2000, gold may rise during this period;Judging from the performance of gold on election day, gold may reverse the trend before and after the election.
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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