The Fed raises interest rates for the first time in three years! How will the market react?

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Week Ahead | Waller Makes Jackson Hole Debut; NVIDIA and Meituan to Report Earnings; Key Releases of PCE Data and Annual Nonfarm Payroll Revisions

Overview of Key Events for the New Week

– The Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole Annual Symposium convenes, marking Fed Chair Walsh's debut.

The 2026 Jackson Hole Global Central Bankers Symposium will be held from August 27 to 29 in Wyoming, USA, with the theme "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy."

Fed Chair Walsh is scheduled todeliver a keynote address at the Global Central Bankers Symposium in Jackson Hole at 10:00 AM ET on August 28 (10:00 PM Beijing time).Walsh stated that he hopes to use this speech to define the "major issues" facing the Fed—including concerns about the inflation target, productivity, demographic shifts, and global economic shocks.

TD Securities expects in a strategy report that,given Walsh's management philosophy of reluctance to provide forward guidance, he is not expected to change his consistent approach when discussing the economic outlook.Strategists stated: "The market will look for clues regarding his policy response mechanism and whether he will reaffirm the Federal Reserve's determination to combat inflation."

– Earnings reports from HK and US-listed stocks, including NVIDIA, Marvell Technology, PDD Holdings, and Meituan, are being released in rapid succession.

The Q2 earnings season is entering its final sprint. Before the market open on Monday, August 24, $PDD Holdings (PDD.US)$ will release its earnings. The market is focusing on Temu's GMV and profitability, as well as competition for its domestic main platform. After the market close on August 26 US Eastern Time (04:00 on August 27 Beijing Time), $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ will release its highly anticipated earnings, which will serve as the "ultimate test" of the AI capital expenditure cycle. The market is focused on Blackwell shipments and data center revenue guidance; additionally, $XPENG-W (09868.HK)$ 、 $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$、 $MINIMAX-W (00100.HK)$、 $LI AUTO-W (02015.HK)$、 $BILIBILI-W (09626.HK)$、 $Marvell Technology (MRVL.US)$ other major companies will also announce their earnings in due course.

– US Treasury Secretary Bessent: A new US fiscal consolidation plan is forthcoming; a press conference on Iran-related issues is planned.

According to reports from Bloomberg and others, US Treasury Secretary Bessent announced on August 20 that President Trump has tasked him and the Director of the Office of Management and Budget to leada new fiscal consolidation plan, expected to be announced early next week. Previously, the US Treasury had announced a doubling of the scale of long-term Treasury bond buybacks. Bessent stated that the single transaction size for long-term bond buybacks could exceed $4 billion, emphasizing, "We have a massive toolkit, so stay tuned."

Following the market attention drawn by the "US debt rescue",he will hold a press conference during US trading hours on Monday (early Tuesday Beijing time) to disclose details of the US "economic war" against Iran.The market is still unclear on how the US intends to force Iran to compromise by escalating economic sanctions that have been in place for nearly half a century, especially when military strikes have failed to achieve their objectives.

Rezaei, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, stated publicly on Saturday thatany country participating in imposing economic restrictions on Iran is considered an enemy by Iran.Meanwhile, any US actions in the southern shipping lanes of the Strait of Hormuz will become targets for Iranian strikes, and Iran will also target meetings between the US and any anti-Iran forces in the region.

– The Fed's "preferred inflation indicator," the PCE data, along with revisions to non-farm payroll figures, will be released sequentially.

At 20:30 on August 26, the July PCE data will be released;if the reading exceeds expectations, it will impact market expectations for the Fed's policy path in September, causing correlated fluctuations in US Treasury yields and global risk assets. Additionally,the revised Q2 US real GDP figure will be released at 20:30 on August 26.On a month-over-month basis, investors expect the Fed's preferred inflation gauge—the core PCE price index—to rise by 0.2%. A larger increase could lead investors to reconsider expectations that the Fed will hold rates steady in September, potentially opening the door for a pullback in gold prices. Conversely, if the monthly core PCE inflation data comes in weaker than expected, it could help push gold prices higher.

Subsequently, on Thursday, August 27, traders will focus on the weekly initial jobless claims report.At 22:00 on Friday evening, the preliminary annual benchmark revision for non-farm payroll data will also be released,along with the final reading of the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index for August.

The preliminary annual benchmark revision for non-farm payrolls will indicate whether previously reported U.S. employment data was overestimated or underestimated.Following recent signs of hiring weakness, this revision could become increasingly significant. If it points to a substantial slowdown in the labor market, it may influence expectations regarding Fed policy.

– "The world's largest gaming exhibition" Gamescom opens

Gamescom 2026 in Cologne, Germany, is scheduled to take place from August 26 to August 30, 2026 (local time). The pre-show Opening Night Live (ONL) stream will begin at 02:00 Beijing Time on August 26. $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ 、 $Nintendo (ADR) (NTDOY.US)$ 、 $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ 、 $NTES (09999.HK)$ , CDPR, and other well-known listed companies will make a collective appearance.

Key Earnings Calendar for the New Week

[Related Reading][Reward] Earnings season heats up! NVIDIA, Marvell Technology, PDD Holdings, Meituan, MINIMAX, and others release results in a cluster. Quick look at the week's earnings (Aug 24-28)

Monday (August 24)

Keywords: Bessent; PDD Holdings; XPeng; Kingboard Group; Cambridge Industries; SK Hynix

In terms of financial events,U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessentwill hold a press conference during U.S. trading hours on Monday (early Tuesday Beijing time)on specific actions to increase economic sanctions against Iran; additionally, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent announced on August 20 that President Trump has tasked him and the Director of the Office of Management and Budget to lead anew fiscal consolidation plan, expected to be announced early this week; South Korea $SK hynix (SKHY.US)$ Union members will vote on the tentative 2026 wage and labor agreement from August 24 to 25.

Regarding earnings, $PDD Holdings (PDD.US)$ 、 $XPENG-W (09868.HK)$ 、 $KINGBOARD HLDG (00148.HK)$ 、 $KB LAMINATES (01888.HK)$ 、 $CIG (06166.HK)$ 、 $BUSYMING (01768.HK)$ 、 $LUXSHARE ICT (02475.HK)$ 、 $LEAPMOTOR (09863.HK)$ Earnings will be released after the HK stock market close.

Regarding IPOs, $INGENIC (03223.HK)$ Grey market trading will open at 16:15.

Tuesday (August 25)

Keywords: ADP Weekly; Junzheng Group; Wuxi Bio

Regarding economic data,The US ADP Employment Change for the week ending August 8 and the US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for August will be released.

20:15 US ADP Employment Change for the week ending August 8 (in thousands)

22:00 US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for August

In terms of economic events,20:00, Thomas Barkin, President of the Richmond Fed and 2027 FOMC voter, will deliver a speech on "The Enigmatic US Economy".

In terms of earnings, $WUXI BIO (02269.HK)$ 、 $JIANGXI COPPER (00358.HK)$ 、 $Dongfang Electric Corporation (600875.SH)$ 、 $GOLDWIND (02208.HK)$ 、 $LAOPU GOLD (06181.HK)$ 、 $NONGFU SPRING (09633.HK)$ will announce earnings after the HK stock market close; $Intuit (INTU.US)$ 、 $Zoom Communications (ZM.US)$ will announce earnings after the US stock market close.

In terms of IPOs, $INGENIC (03223.HK)$ will officially list on the HKEX at 9:20.

Wednesday (August 26)

Keywords: PCE; GDP; NVIDIA; Salesforce; Li Auto; MINIMAX; CNOOC; SenseTime

In terms of economic data, the US Core PCE Price Index YoY for July,the US Personal Spending MoM for July,the revised annualized quarterly growth rate of US Real GDP for Q2,and the US Durable Goods Orders MoM for July will be released together.

20:30 US Core PCE Price Index YoY for July

20:30 US Personal Spending MoM for July

20:30 Revised annualized quarterly growth rate of US Real GDP for Q2

20:30 US Core PCE Price Index MoM for July

20:30 US Durable Goods Orders MoM for July

In terms of financial events,23:45, Richmond Fed President and 2027 FOMC voting member Thomas Barkin to attend a panel discussion; $BIDU-W (09888.HK)$ Plans to hold a general meeting of shareholders on August 26 to deliberate on multiple proposals.

Regarding earnings, $LI AUTO-W (02015.HK)$ 、 $SENSETIME-W (00020.HK)$ 、 $MINIMAX-W (00100.HK)$ 、 $SANHUA (02050.HK)$ 、 $HARBIN ELECTRIC (01133.HK)$ 、 $SUNNY OPTICAL (02382.HK)$ 、 $BEONE MEDICINES (06160.HK)$ Will announce earnings after the Hong Kong stock market closes; $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ 、 $HP Inc (HPQ.US)$ 、 $CrowdStrike (CRWD.US)$ 、 $Salesforce (CRM.US)$ Will announce earnings after the US stock market closes.

Thursday (August 27)

Keywords: Jackson Hole; Jobless Claims; Bilibili; Victory Giant Technology; Marvell Technology; IREN

Regarding economic data,US initial jobless claims for the week ended August 22 will be released.

20:30 US initial jobless claims for the week ended August 22

In terms of financial events,At 19:30, the ECB will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting;The Jackson Hole Global Central Bankers Symposium will be held from August 27 to 29.。

In terms of earnings, $BILIBILI-W (09626.HK)$ 、 $VGT (02476.HK)$ 、 $MIXUE GROUP (02097.HK)$ 、 $CHINA VANKE (02202.HK)$ 、 $CHALCO (02600.HK)$ 、 $CHINA LIFE (02628.HK)$ 、 $TIANQI LITHIUM (09696.HK)$ will report earnings after the HK stock market close; $Marvell Technology (MRVL.US)$ 、 $IREN Ltd (IREN.US)$ 、 $Workday (WDAY.US)$ will report earnings after the US stock market close.

Friday (August 28)

Keywords: Nonfarm Payrolls revision; University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index; Meituan; Waller

In terms of economic data,US August Chicago PMI,Initial estimate of the 2026 US non-farm payroll benchmark revision, the final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for August, and the final one-year inflation expectation for August will be released together.

21:45 US Chicago PMI for August

22:00 Initial estimate of the 2026 US non-farm payroll benchmark revision (in ten thousands)

22:00 Final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for August

22:00 Final one-year inflation expectation for August

In terms of economic events,22:00，Fed Chair Walsh delivers his first speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium。

In terms of earnings, $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ 、 $PETROCHINA (00857.HK)$ 、 $MONTAGE TECH (06809.HK)$ 、 $BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$ 、 $ILUVATAR COREX (09903.HK)$ 、 $GANFENGLITHIUM (01772.HK)$ will announce earnings after the HK stock market closes.

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Happy new week, wishing fellow investors smooth trading!

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