The Fed raises interest rates for the first time in three years! How will the market react?

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TuiTui X Daily: 30-year US Treasury yields hit a 19-year high, triggering sell-offs; computing cloud and storage sectors plunge across the board; Meta faces trial in massive lawsuit

August 19, 2026 · Covering 389 KOLs and 2,051 tweets

The yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond surged to 5.31% in a single day, hitting a nearly 19-year high. Coupled with Japan's 30-year government bond yield breaking the historic 4% threshold, the narrative of "capital scarcity" has for the first time overshadowed AI demand itself, leading to a collective plunge in the computing cloud and storage sectors—$SanDisk (SNDK.US)$ 、 $CoreWeave (CRWV.US)$ 、 $NEBIUS (NBIS.US)$ and $Micron Technology (MU.US)$Single-day declines generally ranged from 8% to 12%. The market's focus is quietly shifting from "whether AI demand is sufficient" to "where the money will come from." Meanwhile,$Meta Platforms (META.US)$facing a teenage addiction lawsuit in California Federal Court with claims totaling up to $1.4 trillion, coupled with$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$the upcoming earnings release on August 26, tech stocks are standing at a crossroads of interest rate and legal risks.

I. Trending Stocks on X

II. Market Main Theme | Interest Rates Become a New Variable; Computing Cloud and Storage Sectors Plunge Across the Board

1. 30-Year US Treasury Yield Hits 19-Year High; "Capital Scarcity" Narrative Gains Momentum：@charliebilelloData shows that the yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond has risen to 5.31%, the highest level since June 2007;@AntonLaVay To put it bluntly, the scarcest resource in the current market is neither memory nor lithography equipment, but capital. "Capital scarcity is the primary contradiction right now."

2. Rumors of a "$3 trillion black hole" trigger a collective sell-off in the computing cloud sector：@joinautopilot Citing sources, reports indicate that Wall Street has identified a $3 trillion gap on big tech balance sheets. CoreWeave fell 11.6% in a single day, $Bloom Energy (BE.US)$ [Stock Name] dropped 11.0%, SanDisk fell 10.2%, NEBIUS declined 8.8%, Micron dropped 8.2%, $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ [Stock Name] fell 4.6%.

3. However, some argue against excessive panic：@oguzerkan Pointing out that H100 hourly rental rates have rebounded to $3.08, only 5% below the May peak, they question why "neoclouds are still being hammered" despite robust rental prices;@ParadisLabs Using unit economics analysis for GPU fleets, they argue that shorting NEBIUS or CoreWeave "is difficult to justify."

4. The supply-demand dynamics in the memory sector continue to evolve：@kovainvestDrawing an analogy to the Strait of Hormuz, this serves as a reminder to memory chip manufacturers that while restricting supply and raising prices may be profitable in the short term, it will ultimately force major clients to support new suppliers, causing them to lose pricing power. Some analysts, citing Bank of America's view, suggest that if NVIDIA reduces the HBM configuration in its next-generation Rubin Ultra, it could actually benefit Micron.

3. Market Overview | VIX surges 16% intraday; S&P 500 falls below its 8-day moving average

1、Both volatility and stock indices weaken: VIX surged 16%-18% intraday at one point@ProblemSniper; The S&P 500 closed below its 8-day exponential moving average for the first time in three weeks, with a $2.3 billion put wall at the $765 strike price for $SPY, and gamma has turned negative.

2、Futures across the board weakened, pressured by housing data and oil prices moving in tandem: US 30 Index down 0.02%, S&P 500 down 0.20%, Nasdaq 100 down 0.49%@ProblemSniper；@Banana3StocksPointed out that July's new housing starts data fell short of expectations, with high mortgage rates and elevated oil prices jointly dragging down the market.

3、Geopolitical tensions and Chinese data are doubly suppressing risk appetite.: Trump reiterated that there are "no negotiations" with Iran, as tensions continue to escalate in the Strait of Hormuz.@TradingThomas3; China's July industrial output and retail sales data showed broad weakness, with retail growth slowing to near zero.@fxtrader

4. Individual Stock Forums

1、$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$| Bank of America raises its bullish target price to $350, with earnings approaching on Friday.

The market is showing significant divergence ahead of the August 26 earnings report: bulls are betting that continued DRAM/HBM shortages will support ecosystem profits, while bears have detected the most pessimistic signals from current options flow.

***Bullish

• @SchwabNetwork: Bank of America maintains a "Buy" rating and sets a $350 target price, stating that there is still over 50% upside from the current $219-$224 range. It argues that the market has overpriced AI capital expenditure and financing risks, failing to fully reflect NVIDIA's improving profitability.

• @Banana3Stocks: It is expected that NVIDIA could surge to the $235-$240 range following the earnings report, after which the broader market may peak and correct in September-October. Confidence in NVIDIA remains stronger than the outlook for the S&P/Nasdaq.

***Bearish

• @CheddarFlowNVIDIA's daily option flow is currently showing the most bearish sentiment, with capital clearly betting on a downside move.

• @Balder13946731While remaining bullish in the long term, there are signs of a "short-term top" at current levels.

***Neutral

• @amitisinvestingNVIDIA is investing $1.5 billion in SB Energy to support OpenAI's 4.25GW data center project in Ohio (expandable to 8GW), secured by a 20-year lease with OpenAI.

2、$Meta Platforms (META.US)$| Teen addiction lawsuit valued at $1.4 trillion goes to trial, putting pressure on the stock near its three-year high

The case brought by 29 states against Meta in California Federal Court has officially gone to trial, with public opinion labeling it social media's "Big Tobacco moment." However, bulls argue that the negative impact of the lawsuit has already been priced in, making the valuation attractive.

***Bullish

• @oguzerkanMeta is expected to have approximately 5GW of excess computing power available for resale by 2030. Estimated at $20 billion per GW, this equates to an additional $100 billion in revenue. With a forward P/E ratio of only 17x, the valuation is "ridiculously cheap."

• @StockMarketNerdDrawing parallels to Johnson & Johnson's ovarian cancer litigation, which ultimately ended in a fine-based settlement, the view is that while the courtroom drama is loud, it does not change fundamentals. The outlook remains positive for a return to historical highs.

***Bearish

• @faststocknewssOn the day the trial opened, Meta's stock fell 3.8% to $547.50, as attorneys general from 29 states accused Meta of designing Facebook and Instagram to induce addiction among teenagers.

• Benzinga cites Steve Eisman: Revenue rose 28% last quarter, but costs jumped 55%, with capital expenditures reaching $31 billion. Depreciation on AI infrastructure is eroding free cash flow.

***Neutral

• @Mr_Derivatives: From a purely technical perspective, excluding litigation noise, the area around $500 marks the fourth stabilization support level this year, with a target of $600.

3、$Micron Technology (MU.US)$| The narrative of DRAM as the "primary bottleneck" is strengthening, with put option bets in the options market reaching the $20 million level.

Management publicly stated that tight DRAM supply is currently the biggest constraint for customers, fostering a bullish narrative; however, rare large-scale sweep orders for SPY and MU put options appeared on the same day, indicating some capital is hedging against a pullback.

***Bullish

• @Beth_Kindig: Citing Micron management, customers generally report that the current biggest constraint is not power, real estate, or computing power, but DRAM supply itself.

• @FinnStockinger: HBM demand is projected to increase from 6-7 EB in 2027 to 12.5 EB in 2028, a year-over-year growth of approximately 85%, making the "long memory" thesis difficult to disprove.

***Bearish

• @CheddarFlow: Large-scale sweep orders for $SPY and $MU put options totaling approximately $20 million were observed, with trading characteristics described as "highly anomalous."

• @joinautopilot: Micron fell 8.2% in a single day, dragged down along with SanDisk, NEBIUS, and CoreWeave by rumors of a "$3 trillion black hole."

***Neutral

• @StockSavvyShay: Cathie Wood stated she remains avoidant of memory stocks like Micron, believing HBM is the most cyclical and commoditized segment of the semiconductor chain.

4、$NEBIUS (NBIS.US)$| New Jersey data center approval removes risk, but stock still plunges nearly 9% on the same day

The Vineland data center project was approved by a 9-1 vote, viewed as a major positive catalyst, prompting analysts to raise their target prices. However, the stock still fell sharply alongside the cloud computing sector that day, indicating that market sentiment temporarily outweighed fundamentals.

***Bullish

• @amitisinvesting: DA Davidson had previously lowered its target price from $250 to $175 due to concerns over site approval; following the approval, it restored the target to $250, stating that this move "eliminated significant risk."

• @InvestingVisual: The Vineland site selection was approved by a 9-1 vote, with 300MW of capacity moving into Phase II, paving the way for the $17 billion contract with Microsoft.

***Bearish

• @joinautopilot: NEBIUS plummeted 8.8% that day, dragged down along with CoreWeave and SanDisk by rumors of a "$3 trillion black hole."

• @oguzerkan: Hourly rental rates for H100 GPUs have rebounded to $3.08, only 5% below the May peak, raising questions about why NEBIUS and CoreWeave stocks continue to plunge despite robust rental pricing.

***Neutral

• @growthrapidly: On July 31, I alerted subscribers to establish positions at $192. The stock has since risen to around $270, marking a gain of approximately 41% in two weeks.

5、$Amazon (AMZN.US)$| Louisiana data center investment increases by 50% to $18 billion

The company continues to increase capital expenditure on AI infrastructure. Technically, the stock shows a weekly bull flag pattern awaiting a breakout. Venture capital titan Peter Thiel also lists it as his largest technology holding in his 13F filing.

***Bullish

• @StockSavvyShayAmazon has increased its investment in Louisiana data centers by 50% to $18 billion, adding a third campus in Shreveport, while self-funding grid upgrades and up to $400 million in water infrastructure.

• @WealthCode99978 cites 13F filings: Amazon accounts for 28.18% of Peter Thiel's portfolio, with a market value of $118 million, making it his largest holding in the technology sector.

***Bearish

• @Newsquawk: Pre-market heat maps show broad weakness among the Magnificent Seven, with $AMZN down 0.3%.

***Neutral

• @Mr_DerivativesTechnical analysis indicates a rebound target range of $270–$275.

6、$SanDisk (SNDK.US)$Despite an 8.88% single-day surge, massive call options continue to be swept up.

Sentiment around storage stocks is extremely active in the short term, with continued inflows of long-dated call bets in the options market. However, some traders warn that relying solely on short-selling logic based on "borrow rates" is overly simplistic and requires validation through multi-dimensional evidence.

***Bullish

• @heoilikj:Following SanDisk's 8.88% single-day surge, call options continue to see heavy buying. The October 16 expiry $1,640 strike calls saw $3.48 million in volume; with the current price at $1,786.85 and a target average price of $2,230.88, this implies roughly 24.9% upside. JPMorgan reiterated its Buy rating on August 14 with a $2,250 target, Wedbush set a $2,000 target, and Evercore assigned $2,800, compared to Hold ratings from RBC and Wells Fargo & Co with targets of $1,600 and $1,550, respectively.

• @BarchartUp 62% cumulatively since the July low, with six consecutive days of gains, the stock has now risen above its 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages.

***Bearish

• @joinautopilotSanDisk fell 10.2% in a single day, also caught up in the sell-off of computing cloud and storage stocks triggered by rumors of a "$3 trillion black hole."

***Neutral

• chuge857: A reminder not to assert that a stock "will definitely fall" based solely on a 0.43% stock borrowing fee. Accurate short-selling judgments require cross-verification of five key indicators: securities lending data, formal short interest, options activity, volume-price dynamics, and fundamentals.

7、$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$| Copilot's real-world reputation is heating up, with the $480 support level becoming a focal point for both bulls and bears

Product-side sentiment is improving, but the stock's short-term technicals are being tested at the $480 level; a breakdown below this support could trigger further pullbacks.

***Bullish

• @PythiaR: In real-world tests within heavily regulated Canadian major banks with legacy systems, Copilot's current usability is approaching the level of Claude from March this year, with performance described as "impressive."

***Bearish

• @pdicarlotrader: I took profits on my Microsoft position two weeks ago. If the $480 support breaks, I anticipate a further 10% decline and am waiting for lower entry points to buy back in.

***Neutral

• @InvestingVisual: The second phase of the $17 billion data center contract with NEBIUS is advancing in sync, positioning it as one of the core targets in the AI industry chain's "decision software" layer.

8、$SpaceX (SPCX.US)$| Market cap surpasses Broadcom, with seven rounds of lock-up expirations imminent

The company's market capitalization has surpassed Broadcom's, driven by revenue expansion and IPO hype. However, some traders view the dense schedule of equity lock-up expirations over the coming months as a short-term headwind.

***Bullish

• @WOLF_Financial: SpaceX's market cap has once again surpassed that of Broadcom ($AVGO).

• WealthCode99978: Management has advanced its revenue target of $1 trillion from 2031 to 2030. Based on a price-to-sales ratio of 10-15x, this implies a potential market capitalization range of $10 trillion to $15 trillion.

***Bearish

• @hanking66: A reminder that there will be a密集 series of lock-up expirations over the next seven rounds: approximately 319 million shares each on August 20, September 9, September 24, October 9, and October 24; approximately 1.276 billion shares on the second trading day after the Q3 earnings release; and the remaining approximately 775 million shares fully unlocking on December 8. Therefore, I choose to wait until December to add to my position.

***Neutral

• @Mr_Derivatives: From a technical perspective, if the stock can break through $150 with significant volume, it is highly likely to continue its momentum toward $170.

9、$CoreWeave (CRWV.US)$| Older-generation GPU contracts extend to 2029, but the stock price has given back all gains posted after the earnings report.

There is a divergence between the fundamental narrative (older GPU models can still secure long-term contracts) and the stock price action (all post-earnings gains have been erased), leading to significant disagreement between bulls and bears on whether the 'story' can materialize.

***Bullish

• @Beth_KindigCiting CEO Mike Intrator: The company's current and previous generations of NVIDIA GPUs are essentially sold out, and a long-term contract for A100s extending to 2029 was recently signed. "The upside from re-signing contracts is real."

***Bearish

• @Mr_Derivatives: The stock price has given back all gains made following the earnings report.

• @DarioCpx: Questions remain regarding the source of the company's additional $25 billion in RPO (Remaining Performance Obligations), and previous skepticism about CoreWeave's financial reports is being revisited by the market.

***Neutral

• @joinautopilotCoreWeave fell 11.6% in a single day, leading the pullback in the cloud computing sector.

10、$Tesla (TSLA.US)$| Bulls and bears remain locked in a tug-of-war over valuation and the autonomous driving narrative.

The bearish camp focuses on the stark reality of a 200x P/E ratio and underperforming the Nasdaq by 98% over five years, while the bullish camp bets on news-driven short-term trading opportunities. The divergence between the two sides is significant and has shown no signs of narrowing for a long time.

***Bullish

• @ProblemSniperFrom a technical perspective, if the $346 support level holds, there is potential to test $355 tomorrow, with a target of $364 by Friday.

***Bearish

• @garyblack00Tesla has risen only 51% over the past five years, compared to a 98% gain for the Nasdaq during the same period. Its current forward P/E for 2026 stands at a lofty 200x, with a forward PEG ratio of 5.7x, creating a massive gap relative to the "autonomous driving utopia" expectations priced in by bulls.

• @PythiaRIt is ironic that ARK's previous Tesla valuation model, which reportedly contained around 1,000 errors, is still treated as an authoritative reference for valuation.

***Neutral

• cperruna: No position held; simply raising the question of whether Tesla has another rally left in it.

5. Event Calendar

1. Announced

• On August 18, the lawsuit against Meta regarding teen addiction opened in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California, Oakland Division. Twenty-nine states jointly filed the suit, seeking damages totaling $1.4 trillion.

• On August 18, NEBIUS's Vineland, New Jersey data center project was approved with a 9-1 vote;

• July industrial production and retail sales data indicate a broad slowdown in China's economic growth, with retail growth slowing to near zero.@fxtrader。

2. Today

• The FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 2:00 PM ET, marking the most significant macroeconomic event of the week;

• The first round of share lock-up expiration for SpaceX is approaching, involving approximately 319 million shares.@hanking66

3. This Week

• NVIDIA's earnings report is scheduled for release on Wednesday, August 26. The market widely views this as one of the most significant risk events in the near term.

4. Longer Term

• SpaceX subsequent lock-up expiration schedule: Approximately 319 million shares each on September 9, September 24, October 9, and October 24; approximately 1.276 billion shares on the second trading day after the Q3 earnings report; and the remaining approximately 775 million shares fully unlocked on December 8.@hanking66

This report is compiled based on public posts from the X platform and publicly available market information. It reflects only the personal views of the original author and does not constitute investment advice. The content has been summarized and refined with AI assistance, so there may be omissions or deviations; please refer to official information for accuracy. The cited KOLs represent curated viewpoints from professional traders, analysts, and leading media accounts, and do not reflect the overall sentiment of retail investors.

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