Option Trading Insights | A HIMS put option nearing expiration surged over 200%, with a probability of being exercised at 47.74%

I. Stock Price Below $50 - Top 10 Low-Cost Option Trades

Stocks with lower share prices often have relatively cheaper absolute option premiums (i.e., option fees or rights fees), as they represent smaller underlying asset value scales, determined by the pricing logic of options. Therefore, this category of options hasThis is because the underlying asset value it carries is relatively small, which is determined by the pricing logic of options. Therefore, this option hasLow barrier, light costFeatures suitable for small-capital deployment in targeted opportunities while reducing the risk of premium erosion.

Core screening criteria: Latest option price between 0.1-1 USD (indicating a single option contract price range of 10-100 USD), underlying stock price < 50 USD, ranked by top ten trading volume on the day (with an attached chart showing the top ten traded).

Among options with trading volumes exceeding 100 contracts, the one with the largest increase was the put option for HIMS expiring on March 20, 2026, with a strike price of 24.

Currently, the volatility of this option is slightly lower than the historical 30-day average volatility, and its implied volatility is close to 113%. If it is expected that the implied volatility will decline in the future, it would be suitable as part of an option seller's strategy. However, based on the current implied volatility situation, this near-expiry option may experience a rapid increase when approaching the strike price.

If implied volatility is expected to rise alongside continued stock price fluctuations, it would be suitable for option buyers.

The current probability of exercise is relatively high, approximately 47.74%. If planning to buy and expecting implied volatility to rise, it is appropriate for an option buyer's strategy. Conversely, if the probability of exercise is expected to decrease or even drop to zero, it would be more suitable for an option seller’s strategy.

II. Weekly Top Nine Options Trading Rankings

Starting from January 26, the US stock options market experienced a significant upgrade:$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ 、$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ 、$Apple (AAPL.US)$ 、$Amazon(AMZN.US)$ 、Meta Platforms (META.US) 、$Broadcom (AVGO.US)$ 、$谷歌-C (GOOG.US)$、$Microsoft(MSFT.US)$、$iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT.US)$These nine major underlying assets, which originally had options contracts expiring every Friday, now also have new contracts expiring on Mondays and Wednesdays.

What does this mean? Previously, if you wanted to use options on these underlying assets to leverage small capital for bigger gains, you would have to wait until the market closed on Friday. But now, you can also trade up to Monday or Wednesday, accelerating capital turnover.Moreover, due to shorter durations and lower prices, it’s possible to participate in market movements with even less capital, reducing trial-and-error costs significantly.

Although the unit price of the underlying stock in this option is relatively high, the premium for a single option contract is still kept below $100, allowing investors to gain exposure to high-priced core assets while significantly lowering entry costs.

Core screening criteria: nine major underlying assets, latest option prices between $0.1 and $1 (indicating that the price for a single option contract is between $10 and $100), expiration within three days, sorted by percentage change.

Among the nine companies, the largest increase was in the IBIT put option expiring on March 20, 2026, with a strike price of $40.5.

Currently, the volatility of this option is much higher than the historical 30-day average volatility, and its implied volatility is close to 62%. If it is expected that the implied volatility will decline in the future, it would be suitable as part of an option seller's strategy. However, based on the current implied volatility situation, this near-expiry option may experience a rapid increase when approaching the strike price.

If implied volatility is expected to rise alongside continued stock price fluctuations, it would be suitable for option buyers.

The current probability of exercise is low, approximately 56.41%, and combined with the high implied volatility mentioned earlier, it is suitable as an option selling strategy. Conversely, if it is determined that the probability of exercise continues to rise, it is suitable as an option buying strategy.

On the investment journey, every practice of validating one's understanding at a controllable cost is a solid step toward realizing future value. Fellow investors who wish to learn more about how to trade low-cost options can click the link below to study further.

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Risk Warning

An option is a contract that gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an asset at a fixed price at any time on or before a specific date. The price of an option is influenced by several factors including the current price of the underlying asset, the strike price, time to expiration, and implied volatility.

Implied volatility reflects the market’s expectation of the future volatility of an option over a certain period. It is data derived inversely from the BS option pricing model and is generally considered an indicator of market sentiment. When investors anticipate higher volatility, they may be willing to pay more for options to hedge risks, resulting in higher implied volatility.

Traders and investors use implied volatility to assessOption priceattractiveness, identify potential mispricings, and manage risk exposure.

Disclaimer
This content does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion, or guarantee for any securities, financial products, or tools. The risk of loss in trading options can be substantial. In some cases, losses may exceed the initial margin deposited. Even if you set contingent orders such as 'stop-loss' or 'limit' orders, these may not prevent losses. Market conditions may prevent these orders from being executed. You might be required to deposit additional margin within a short period. If you fail to provide the required amount within the specified time, your open positions may be liquidated. However, you will still be responsible for any shortfall in your account. Therefore, before trading, you should study and understand options and carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you based on your financial situation and investment objectives. If you trade options, you should be familiar with the procedures for exercising options and the rights and obligations upon exercise and expiration. Option trading involves extremely high risks and is not suitable for all investors. Investors should read carefully before engaging in any options trading strategy.Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options。

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