First quarterly turnaround from loss to profit! Has XPeng reached a turning point?
🎁Profitability Milestone! Nio's Q4 marks its first-ever profit, has the era of long-termism finally paid off?
On March 10, Beijing time, Nio will release its Q4 and full-year 2025 financial results.As early as the beginning of February, the company had already signaled an important milestone: profitability in the first quarter. Will the upcoming full earnings report ignite a new round of market momentum?
![On March 10, Beijing time, Nio will release its Q4 and full-year 2025 financial results.As early as the beginning of February, the company had already signaled an important milestone: profitability in the first quarter. Will the upcoming full earnings report ignite a new round of market momentum?[Tongue] $NIO-SW (09866.HK)$$NIO Inc. USD OV (NIO.SG)$$NIO Inc (NIO.US)$ 🔎Profit Quality: Is money earned through revenue or saved through cost control? Key Data Preview:Official announcements indicate that Nio’s Q4 will record an adjusted operating profit of approximately 700 million to 1.2 billion yuan. Under Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), operating profit is expected to be between 200 million and 700 million yuan. Drivers of Profitability: 1. Sales growth: Nio's Q4 deliveries reached 124,800 units, a year-on-year surge of 71.7%, setting a new quarterly delivery record.[Clap]. Among these, the all-new ES8, priced above 400,000 yuan, has become an undeniable 'profit driver,' with over 22,000 units delivered in December alone, generating billions in gross profit for the quarter, showing initial success of the premium strategy. 2. Cost reduction through technology: More notably, the improvement in gross profit driven by technological cost-cutting — the self-developed 'Shenji' chip replaced NVIDIA's solution, optimizing per-vehicle costs by approximately 10,000 to 20,000 yuan.[Awesome]This means that Nio’s profitability no longer solely depends on sales volume but is beginning to gain 'technology-driven' capabilities. 3. Cost control: Nio, once known for its lavish user services and heavy spending, is now improving through CBU fundamentals...](https://nnqimage.futunn.com/sns_client_feed/999982/20260309/web-1773040062388-106VPTvmOQ.webp/big?area=2&is_public=true&imageMogr2/ignore-error/1/format/webp)
🔎Profit Quality: Is money earned through revenue or saved through cost control?
Key Data Preview:Official announcements indicate that Nio’s Q4 will record an adjusted operating profit of approximately 700 million to 1.2 billion yuan. Under Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), operating profit is expected to be between 200 million and 700 million yuan.
Drivers of Profitability:
1. Sales growth: Nio's Q4 deliveries reached 124,800 units, a year-on-year surge of 71.7%, setting a new quarterly delivery record.
2. Cost reduction through technology: More notably, the improvement in gross profit driven by technological cost-cutting — the self-developed 'Shenji' chip replaced NVIDIA's solution, optimizing per-vehicle costs by approximately 10,000 to 20,000 yuan.
3. Expense control: Nio, once known for its extravagant spending on user services, is now achieving meticulous cost management through its CBU (Core Business Unit) mechanism. On February 9, Li Bin mentioned in an internal speech that the CBU mechanism played a significant role last year, and he requested its thorough implementation moving forward.
In summary:This long-overdue quarterly profit is the result of a triple force: sales growth, product mix optimization, and all-around cost control. It also marks Nio’s complete shift from 'building cars on passion' to 'operating on meticulous calculations.'🔥 Infrastructure Moat: Is the value of long-term strategic layout finally being realized?
On the eve of the earnings release, several positive developments in Nio’s business have been announced, gradually revealing its long-term value.
1. Electric Drive Manufacturing Milestone:On March 5, Nio's 20 millionth electric drive system rolled off the production line at its Hefei factory. The electric drive system is the 'heart' of an electric vehicle, and this milestone demonstrates that Nio's vertical integration capabilities in the core three-electric domains have reached new heights.
2. Continuous Evolution of Battery Swap Network:In early February, Nio announced that its battery swap services had exceeded 100 million cumulative swaps, with over 3,700 swap stations built, covering more than 80% of users within a '3 km swap circle.' What was once criticized as a 'bottomless pit of spending' is now becoming an insurmountable 'moat' for competitors.
3. Expansion of Capital Market Layout:On February 26, Anhui Shenji, Nio’s chip subsidiary, completed the signing of its first round of financing exceeding 2.2 billion yuan. The investors in this round were top-tier, bringing the post-money valuation close to 10 billion yuan, marking significant market recognition of Nio's self-developed chip technology roadmap.
📈 Stock price dynamics: Profit alerts ignite sentiment, market awaits final confirmation
![On March 10, Beijing time, Nio will release its Q4 and full-year 2025 financial results.As early as the beginning of February, the company had already signaled an important milestone: profitability in the first quarter. Will the upcoming full earnings report ignite a new round of market momentum?[Tongue] $NIO-SW (09866.HK)$$NIO Inc. USD OV (NIO.SG)$$NIO Inc (NIO.US)$ 🔎Profit Quality: Is money earned through revenue or saved through cost control? Key Data Preview:Official announcements indicate that Nio’s Q4 will record an adjusted operating profit of approximately 700 million to 1.2 billion yuan. Under Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), operating profit is expected to be between 200 million and 700 million yuan. Drivers of Profitability: 1. Sales growth: Nio's Q4 deliveries reached 124,800 units, a year-on-year surge of 71.7%, setting a new quarterly delivery record.[Clap]. Among these, the all-new ES8, priced above 400,000 yuan, has become an undeniable 'profit driver,' with over 22,000 units delivered in December alone, generating billions in gross profit for the quarter, showing initial success of the premium strategy. 2. Cost reduction through technology: More notably, the improvement in gross profit driven by technological cost-cutting — the self-developed 'Shenji' chip replaced NVIDIA's solution, optimizing per-vehicle costs by approximately 10,000 to 20,000 yuan.[Awesome]This means that Nio’s profitability no longer solely depends on sales volume but is beginning to gain 'technology-driven' capabilities. 3. Cost control: Nio, once known for its lavish user services and heavy spending, is now improving through CBU fundamentals...](https://nnqimage.futunn.com/sns_client_feed/999982/20260309/web-1773043725863-O5wEe6jWQy.jpeg/big?area=2&is_public=true&imageMogr2/ignore-error/1/format/webp)
Following the release of the profit forecast at the beginning of February, Nio’s share price rose sharply,$NIO Inc (NIO.US)$ Surging over 11% in pre-market trading, closing up 5.86% on the day; the following day... $NIO-SW (09866.HK)$ opened higher and closed up 6.95%, but subsequently oscillated and pulled back amid broader industry volatility.As of the Hong Kong stock market close on March 9, $NIO-SW (09866.HK)$ trading at HKD 38.26, which still shows room for recovery compared to its 52-week high (HKD 61.75), but signs of stabilization have emerged after repeated testing at the bottom.
In fact, Nio’s stock price movement following earnings releases in recent years has been quite dramatic. Over the past four quarters, Nio exceeded delivery expectations three times, but the short-term trend post-earnings repeatedly exhibited a 'disappointment upon reveal' pattern, only to recover again within 1-2 months.
As the halo of 'first profitability' fades, the market’s threshold for surprises has quietly risen,Can Nio present a growth roadmap for 2026 that will keep investors committed? The market is closely watching whether its cost-cutting strategies can continue to gain traction. Can the gross margin stabilize above 20% by 2026?Profit realization is just the beginning; the real show is just about to start!Nio achieved its first quarterly profit in 11 years, with earnings about to be announced; how will the stock react?👇👇
Nio achieved its first quarterly profit in 11 years, with earnings about to be announced; how will the stock react?👇👇[Guess the Opening Price to Win Points]Vote to participate in predictions $NIO-SW (09866.HK)$The opening price range on March 11th at 9:30 Beijing Time—fellow investors who guess correctly will share the prize equally.10,000 points!
(This poll will close at 21:00 Beijing Time on March 10; rewards will be distributed uniformly after this earnings season ends.)
Multiple institutions believe that once the market confirms the sustainability of profitability, Nio’s valuation framework will shift from a "growth stock" to a "value growth stock," and its valuation center is expected to experience a systematic increase.
Are you optimistic about Nio’s performance in 2026? Is this single-quarter profit a signal of reversal, or just a flash in the pan?Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comment section~
Are you optimistic about Nio’s performance in 2026? Is this single-quarter profit a signal of reversal, or just a flash in the pan?Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comment section~New energy players face the challenge of profitability. How to deploy easily? 'Earnings Express' AI identifies key points, and builds options strategy in three steps >>![On March 10, Beijing time, Nio will release its Q4 and full-year 2025 financial results.As early as the beginning of February, the company had already signaled an important milestone: profitability in the first quarter. Will the upcoming full earnings report ignite a new round of market momentum?[Tongue] $NIO-SW (09866.HK)$$NIO Inc. USD OV (NIO.SG)$$NIO Inc (NIO.US)$ 🔎Profit Quality: Is money earned through revenue or saved through cost control? Key Data Preview:Official announcements indicate that Nio’s Q4 will record an adjusted operating profit of approximately 700 million to 1.2 billion yuan. Under Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), operating profit is expected to be between 200 million and 700 million yuan. Drivers of Profitability: 1. Sales growth: Nio's Q4 deliveries reached 124,800 units, a year-on-year surge of 71.7%, setting a new quarterly delivery record.[Clap]. Among these, the all-new ES8, priced above 400,000 yuan, has become an undeniable 'profit driver,' with over 22,000 units delivered in December alone, generating billions in gross profit for the quarter, showing initial success of the premium strategy. 2. Cost reduction through technology: More notably, the improvement in gross profit driven by technological cost-cutting — the self-developed 'Shenji' chip replaced NVIDIA's solution, optimizing per-vehicle costs by approximately 10,000 to 20,000 yuan.[Awesome]This means that Nio’s profitability no longer solely depends on sales volume but is beginning to gain 'technology-driven' capabilities. 3. Cost control: Nio, once known for its lavish user services and heavy spending, is now improving through CBU fundamentals...](https://nnqimage.futunn.com/sns_client_feed/999982/20260309/web-1773041057985-MQnBQbYTCI.webp/big?area=2&is_public=true&imageMogr2/ignore-error/1/format/webp)
![On March 10, Beijing time, Nio will release its Q4 and full-year 2025 financial results.As early as the beginning of February, the company had already signaled an important milestone: profitability in the first quarter. Will the upcoming full earnings report ignite a new round of market momentum?[Tongue] $NIO-SW (09866.HK)$$NIO Inc. USD OV (NIO.SG)$$NIO Inc (NIO.US)$ 🔎Profit Quality: Is money earned through revenue or saved through cost control? Key Data Preview:Official announcements indicate that Nio’s Q4 will record an adjusted operating profit of approximately 700 million to 1.2 billion yuan. Under Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), operating profit is expected to be between 200 million and 700 million yuan. Drivers of Profitability: 1. Sales growth: Nio's Q4 deliveries reached 124,800 units, a year-on-year surge of 71.7%, setting a new quarterly delivery record.[Clap]. Among these, the all-new ES8, priced above 400,000 yuan, has become an undeniable 'profit driver,' with over 22,000 units delivered in December alone, generating billions in gross profit for the quarter, showing initial success of the premium strategy. 2. Cost reduction through technology: More notably, the improvement in gross profit driven by technological cost-cutting — the self-developed 'Shenji' chip replaced NVIDIA's solution, optimizing per-vehicle costs by approximately 10,000 to 20,000 yuan.[Awesome]This means that Nio’s profitability no longer solely depends on sales volume but is beginning to gain 'technology-driven' capabilities. 3. Cost control: Nio, once known for its lavish user services and heavy spending, is now improving through CBU fundamentals...](https://nnqimage.futunn.com/sns_client_feed/999982/20260309/web-1773041057577-RQCSeS3FBP.webp/big?area=2&is_public=true&imageMogr2/ignore-error/1/format/webp)
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
Comments (24)
to post a comment
17
13