The 'OpenAI Chain' has seen a strong rebound! What is the underlying logic? Which companies are worth watching?

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has just announcedChatGPT ‘has returned to monthly growth exceeding 10%’and plans to roll out an updated chat model this week, providing another boost to the artificial intelligence sector. Spurred by this news, the 'OpenAI chain' experienced a strong rebound.

Specifically, companies closely tied to the OpenAI ecosystem, $Oracle (ORCL.US)$ 、 $CoreWeave (CRWV.US)$ and $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ 、 $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ 、 $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ as well as those active in the past two days, $SoftBank Group (ADR) (SFTBY.US)$ have seen significant rebounds. CoreWeave surged nearly 30%, Oracle rose over 14%, AMD and SoftBank Group gained more than 12%, NVIDIA climbed 10%, and Microsoft rose 5%.

This article will analyze why market sentiment towards the OpenAI chain has reversed recently and which companies are expected to benefit.

Why has the OpenAI chain made a comeback?

At the beginning of this year, UBS Group pointed out that the market's panic stemmed from two core issues: one was the extreme distrust in OpenAI’s 'bottomless money-burning' and its ability to deliver, and the other was the concern over whether Oracle's balance sheet could sustain its investment-grade rating amid aggressive capital expenditures. Meanwhile, UBS Group also stated,A small positive catalyst would be enough to trigger a sharp valuation recovery.

andRecently, OpenAI and Oracle have been frequently reporting positive developments.

According to a CNBC report on Monday, Altman told employees last Friday on the internal Slack platform,ChatGPT ‘has achieved monthly growth of over 10% again.’

Similarweb stated on Friday that ChatGPT saw two areas of growth in the first month of 2026:(1) Application downloads:The first increase after three consecutive months of decline;(2) Monthly active users:Growth for the second consecutive month. The report also noted that Codex usage surged by about 50% in a week, and ChatGPT’s ad testing began today, with advertising revenue expected to account for less than 50% of long-term total revenue.

This statement comes as OpenAI is pushing for a potential funding round of up to $100 billion.According to informed sources, Altman and Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar are presenting growth data to investors in private meetings, including internal charts showing Codex is eroding Claude Code’s market share. Financing negotiations are expected to intensify over the next two weeks.

As for oracle bone script,At the start of the month, Oracle launched a comprehensive financing plan of up to $50 billion.Barclays believes this move eliminates the market's biggest concerns about the funding sources for its AI business expansion, and the company's stock should be repriced.

The core driver behind Oracle's massive financing is the explosive demand for its cloud infrastructure business.The company has explicitly stated that the funds raised will be specifically used to build additional data center capacity to meet the needs of major contracts signed with key clients such as AMD, Meta Platforms, NVIDIA, OpenAI, TikTok, and xAI.

From a fundamental perspective, this round of market activity essentially reflects a 'cognitive recalibration' following the restoration of market risk appetite. Capital is withdrawing from short-term sentiment speculation and re-anchoring Oracle's long-term growth value in AI and cloud infrastructure.

The recent violent rebound is both a resonance of valuation recovery and short-covering, and also a powerful market declaration: investor expectations for Oracle’s AI/Cloud business growth remain unchanged; the previous pullback was merely an emotional disturbance, with the long-term logic still robust.

Which companies are expected to benefit?

Previously‘AI Compute Power Mega Orders Flying Everywhere! Who Is Celebrating in OpenAI’s Trillion-Dollar Gamble? What Hidden Concerns Lie Beneath?’An article once outlined OpenAI's ecosystem:

OpenAI's hardware supply chain exhibits characteristics of both diversification and deep integration:

$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$As the core GPU supplier,On September 22, 2025, NVIDIA announced a $100 billion investment in OpenAI’s infrastructure, securing chip supply rights for future 10GW data centers. This deal not only brings NVIDIA approximately $400 billion in multi-year revenue recognition but also strengthens its monopoly position in the AI chip sector through a 'capital-hardware-ecosystem' closed loop.

$Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$CoreWeave has entered OpenAI's ecosystem through an innovative 'compute power for equity' model.On October 6, 2025, OpenAI committed to deploying 6GW of AMD GPUs in exchange for up to 160 million warrants for AMD common stock (exercise price $0.01). If fully exercised, OpenAI would hold approximately 10% of AMD’s shares.

$Broadcom (AVGO.US)$Broadcom has reached a collaboration with OpenAI in the field of custom chips.On September 4, 2025, Broadcom announced it had secured a $10 billion order from OpenAI for 3nm ASICs, with plans for mass production by 2026 aimed at reducing training costs by 30%. This marks OpenAI’s move upstream into chip design, pursuing more efficient specialized computing power.

$Oracle (ORCL.US)$As the key contractor for the Stargate project,with an initial investment of $40 billion (including cash and facility valuation), securing $300 billion in data center construction rights.

In addition, OpenAI has placed multiple 'orders' previously $CoreWeave (CRWV.US)$ , with the latest contract amount reaching as high as $22.4 billion.

Additionally,Oracle's strong performance not only repaired its own valuation but also became a key catalyst for the sentiment reversal in the Neocloud sector.This sector has experienced a deep valuation correction since November of last year.

As market sentiment warms up, market capital is actively seeking high-elasticity targets that also benefit from the overflow of computing power demand, such as $NEBIUS (NBIS.US)$ 、 $CoreWeave (CRWV.US)$ 、 $IREN Ltd (IREN.US)$ 、 $Hut 8 (HUT.US)$ which have both seen double-digit increases over the past two days.

PreviouslyArticleWe have also compiled a list of AI cloud infrastructure suppliers for investors’ reference:

among which,Hyperscale cloud providersIncluding $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$ 、 $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ 、 $Oracle (ORCL.US)$ 、 $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ ；

Neocloud giants (AI new cloud) dual leaders $CoreWeave (CRWV.US)$ 、 $NEBIUS (NBIS.US)$ ；

Emerging Neocloudsincludes $IREN Ltd (IREN.US)$ 、 $Hut 8 (HUT.US)$ 、 $Bitdeer Technologies Group (BTDR.US)$ 、 $HIVE Digital Technologies (HIVE.US)$ 、 $WhiteFiber (WYFI.US)$ 、 $IBM Corp (IBM.US)$ 、 $Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE.US)$ 。

Summary

The recovery in tech stocks has temporarily eased the market's "AI anxiety." Institutions generally believe that the combination of high growth expectations and valuation adjustments provides a golden window for entry.

However, the sustainability of the rebound still needs to withstand a major test of fundamentals: only when the massive investments in AI translate into tangible revenue growth can this round of rally go further. Before that, investors need to embrace the rebound while staying alert to the pullback pressure after valuation corrections.

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