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博財經港股追蹤 Female ID: 12395420
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    The performance of Hong Kong stocks over the past month has left many friends feeling quite confused. On one hand, the US Dollar Index has once again fallen below 100 (having dropped below 100 in late November and continued to hover below that level), which is clearly a major positive for Hong Kong’s capital markets that use a linked exchange rate system. However, on the other hand, the Hang Seng Index has shown little progress during the same period, with the technology-heavy Hang Seng Tech Index experiencing a significant pullback (the Hang Seng Index and Tech Index have only slightly rebounded from last month's slump in the first two weeks of this year, rising just 3.34% and 3.04%, respectively).
    This corresponds to the 'big breakout' in the biopharmaceutical sector, such as Dyadic Biosciences (09606.HK) after entering 2026 $DUALITYBIO-B (09606.HK)$ which surged more than 20%, and Innovent Bio (01801.HK) $INNOVENT BIO (01801.HK)$ which rose by 10% at the start of the year. Smaller firms in the industry, like Lee's Pharm (00950.HK) $LEE'S PHARM (00950.HK)$ also saw a rise of about 5%.
    Standing at this point at the beginning of 2026, let us take a fresh look at the analytical framework for Hong Kong stocks and anticipate what lies ahead for Hong Kong's capital markets in 2026.
    Core argument of this article:
    First, the recent fluctuations in Hong Kong stocks mainly stem from liquidity contraction caused by deposit migration, which will not alter the positive trend expected in the medium to long term;
    Second, the above risks will be mitigated as the new Federal Reserve Chair takes action.
    Thirdly, the Hong Kong stock market...
    Short-term Hong Kong stocks are being stirred by the 'deposit migration'; the biopharmaceutical sector in 2026 is worth looking forward to
    Short-term Hong Kong stocks are being stirred by the 'deposit migration'; the biopharmaceutical sector in 2026 is worth looking forward to
    Short-term Hong Kong stocks are being stirred by the 'deposit migration'; the biopharmaceutical sector in 2026 is worth looking forward to
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    As geopolitical tensions ease, markets had high hopes for Hong Kong stocks in October and beyond. However, reality has once again disappointed: from October to early November, Hong Kong stocks not only failed to soar but instead appeared rather shaky.
    Consequently, bearish voices have resurfaced in the market, with statements such as 'the market has entered an adjustment phase' and 'Hong Kong stocks are overvalued,' leaving many friends confused and disheartened through October and struggling into November, seemingly missing a small rebound at the end of November. Now December presents an unclear, range-bound market condition.
    So, what are the main factors influencing Hong Kong stocks? And which sectors of Hong Kong stocks hold potential going forward? With these questions in mind, this article is written, presenting the following core viewpoints:
    First, the 'abnormal' performance of Hong Kong stocks is mainly due to the liquidity shock caused by the previous U.S. government shutdown. Now that the shutdown has ended, liquidity pressures on the market will ease.
    Second, the fundamentals of Hong Kong stocks are primarily influenced by mainland China's economy. In this article, we are optimistic about the consumer market, particularly flash sales businesses, which will raise the ceiling for related industries.
    Third, time is on the side of Hong Kong stocks, and there is no need to worry excessively in the short term.
    Key factors behind recent volatility in Hong Kong stocks: the U.S. government shutdown
    Under the linked exchange rate system, the Hong Kong dollar serves as a 'proxy' for the U.S. dollar, making the Hong Kong stock market effectively a U.S. dollar-denominated market. This positioning ties the liquidity of Hong Kong stocks closely to that of the U.S. stock market, almost breathing and sharing the same fate.
    To study the Hong Kong stock market, the primary focus should be on the United States.
    Recently, the biggest disturbance to dollar liquidity has been nothing short of a government shutdown...
    Why does the relief of liquidity pressure following the end of the U.S. government shutdown still leave Hong Kong stocks weak and powerless?
    Why does the relief of liquidity pressure following the end of the U.S. government shutdown still leave Hong Kong stocks weak and powerless?
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    Although there have been recent doubts in the capital markets about whether the AI boom in U.S. stocks might repeat the internet bubble of the past, the competition among countries in AI is evidently irreversible. Along with investments in AI data centers, the underlying support – stable, clean, and low-cost power supply – has become an essential issue. Simply put, the race for AI development will also evolve into a contest among nations to secure a sustainable, reliable, and clean energy system. Therefore, companies that can seize and contribute to their country's transition towards green energy are likely to be viewed as having a brighter future.
    The emergence of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom has not only spurred demand for computing power across various industries (with many enterprises accelerating investment in expanding AI data centers), but tech giants like Microsoft (MSFT.US) and Google (GOOG.US) have also become some of the largest buyers in both the spot and long-term contract markets for high-quality carbon removal credits. This indicates that these giants are increasingly aware that the energy consumption and carbon emissions associated with their AI computing needs are rising rapidly.
    Notably, last week’s United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30), held in Belém, a city adjacent to the Amazon rainforest, demonstrated that China has shifted from its previously more reserved stance. Representatives and companies attending the event are actively showcasing the country's leadership as a major exporter of clean energy technologies.
    On October 28, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China issued a document regarding the formulation of the national economy...
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    In the just-concluded October, after gold prices repeatedly hit record highs, they nearly challenged the $4,400 per ounce mark on October 20. However, a rapid adjustment soon followed, with prices once falling below the $4,000 threshold within six trading days, exhibiting roller-coaster-like volatility. Is this the end of the gold rally, or are there still opportunities for medium- to long-term 'bottom-fishing' positioning?
    The previously surging gold prices have 'suddenly' made gold the 'belief' of global investors. However, when it comes to elaborating on the reasons behind the sharp rise in gold prices, many may feel perplexed. For instance:
    The mainstream view holds that gold prices benefit from geopolitical tensions worldwide, with central banks stockpiling gold to hedge risks, which has rapidly driven up prices.
    This perspective has gained significant traction and is quite popular in global capital markets. We also acknowledge that this view has some merit, but doubts arise when attempting to verify it.
    This article will adopt a novel perspective by placing gold prices within the analytical framework of global finance and capital markets. It will also deduce the formation of high gold prices, forecast the medium- and short-term trends of gold, and infer the medium- and short-term performance of gold-related companies in the secondary market.
    Core Viewpoint:
    First, behind the rise in gold prices lies the sluggish oil prices. Geopolitical factors have created a strong interconnection among gold, U.S. Treasury bonds, and oil, which has driven up gold prices.
    Second, considering the current international situation and U.S. domestic politics, as long as oil prices remain below $75 per barrel, gold prices will be highly predictable, with gold serving as an alternative to U.S. Treasury bonds.
    其三,黄...
    When Gold Becomes an Alternative to U.S. Treasuries: The Logic of Stock Picking in Hong Kong Amid $75 Oil Prices
    When Gold Becomes an Alternative to U.S. Treasuries: The Logic of Stock Picking in Hong Kong Amid $75 Oil Prices
    When Gold Becomes an Alternative to U.S. Treasuries: The Logic of Stock Picking in Hong Kong Amid $75 Oil Prices
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    The global clean energy industry is about to welcome a new round of dividend period. According to the International Gas Union's report "2025 Global LNG Report" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report"), with the release of an additional 58 million tons/year of liquefaction capacity globally by 2025, the LNG trade pattern may undergo a new round of adjustment.
    The authoritative media outlet, China Energy News, has published an article stating that "the world is about to welcome a new peak in LNG expansion," and CICC has also released a report titled "Energy Security Demand May Extend the LNG Construction Boom," expressing great enthusiasm for the industry's future outlook.
    For investors, what attitude should they adopt to seize this investment opportunity? The core viewpoint of this article is:
    Firstly, the LNG industry stands at the threshold of the next cycle; however, in the short term, relevant enterprises must endure disturbances from price fluctuations and other factors, which will severely test the management's operational resilience.
    Secondly, over the long term, outstanding clean energy companies need to exhibit foresight (advance capital expenditures) and diversification (smooth out operational fluctuations), which serves as an important analytical framework for identifying leading firms in the industry.
    Thirdly, the capital market's reassessment should be premised on an increase in price-to-earnings ratios.
    Clean energy will experience an explosion in 2026.
    Currently, the industry faces distractions for investors. Since the beginning of this year, global LNG prices have remained relatively low, leading to the perception in the market that there is an "insufficient overall demand in the industry"; however, this is not the case.
    According to the contents of the "Report", it is believed that the growth of the global LNG market is primarily based on two key factors: first, the relatively low LNG prices at the beginning of the year stimulated price-sensitive buyers...
    The Eve of the Clean Energy Boom: How to Select Outstanding Enterprises
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    On July 15, the National Medical Security Administration (NMSA) announced the launch of the 11th round of national drug centralized procurement, focusing on the theme of 'anti-price war' to avoid low-price competition in the industry. As centralized procurement continues to deepen, it is reshaping the landscape of China's pharmaceutical industry, narrowing the profit margins for traditional generic drugs. In the future, innovative drugs may gain a premium through new payment channels such as Class C medical insurance and commercial insurance, prompting pharmaceutical companies to increase R&D in innovative and high-barrier generic drugs to achieve transformation. In the recent biotech stock rally, the gains have been relatively even, with strong performance from leading companies, while smaller and medium-sized pharmaceutical companies have also shown highlights. The direction of the transformation process will be a significant differentiator in their subsequent performance.
    The NMSA recently optimized centralized procurement measures in line with the requirements of the State Council's executive meeting, adhering to the principles of 'stabilizing clinical use, ensuring quality, preventing bid-rigging, and anti-price war,' improving specific procurement rules, and no longer using the lowest price as the sole reference. This move is expected to prevent small and medium-sized pharmaceutical companies from engaging in excessively low-price competition, thus affecting overall prices, which is bullish for the pharmaceutical sector.
    Several institutions, including JP Morgan Chase and Citi, issued reports on the new round of centralized procurement, indicating that the official support for industry innovation and rational competition is expected to result in relatively moderate price reductions, gradually reducing the impact on pharmaceutical companies. Coupled with the frequent issuance of favorable policies in the first half of the year, this further establishes the long-term growth trend of the Chinese biotech sector, with the profitability of innovative pharmaceutical companies continuing to strengthen.
    Leading pharmaceutical companies are increasing their R&D efforts to transform.
    In the past, original drugs were expensive, while generic drugs were often labeled as 'low-cost' by the market. With the normalization of centralized procurement, traditional pharmaceutical companies are generally increasing innovation...
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    The recent strength of pharmaceutical stocks, as well as the Healthcare sector in Mainland Capital Markets, is the revival of interest in the innovative pharmaceutical sector, which makes one want to see a rise in Technology shares in February. Two sectors have experienced major growth after the previous cycle, as well as a single leading army, and a straight expansion To different tracks. If it is possible to take a dip in pharmaceutical stocks at this time, there is some kind of post-IPO power generation at this stage. AS BIOTECH STOCKS CONTINUE TO BENEFIT SIGNIFICANTLY FROM A POLICY PERSPECTIVE, AND THIS RACE IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR PROFIT GROWTH COMPARED TO FOUR YEARS AGO.
    In the second quarter of this year, the growth of the innovative tablet sector, which has been almost ten years since the start of the industry, showed that the data on the trends and quality beds of international conferences have emerged, while the financial sector has rebounded after four years of deep pullback and regained financial strength.
    According to the Correct Securities Report, the increase in temperature in the pharmaceutical industry is maximized by the adoption of innovative pharmaceutical business models. RONGTAO INNOVATIVE PHARMACEUTICAL COMPANIES ARE ON THE RISE, BRINGING TO THE MARKET THE FIRM INSIGHT INTO THE SUSTAINABLE FINANCING PORTFOLIO OF INNOVATIVE PHARMACEUTICALS, WHILE BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT (BD) PROJECT REVENUES ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY ADAPTABLE. The concept behind China Biotech's DeepSeek reflects China's innovative pharmaceutical growth in the global value chain.
    Benefit Policy Continues
    Industry tends to mature, and the stimulus on the policy front is not...
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    In the first half of 2025, the performance of the Hong Kong stock consumption Sector showed divergence, with new consumption stocks performing remarkably, led by POP MART (09992.HK) $POP MART (09992.HK)$ and LAOPU GOLD (06181.HK) and MIXUE Group (02097.HK) $MIXUE GROUP (02097.HK)$forming the 'new consumption three sisters', the stock price increase has been multiples this year, leading to a boom in new consumption stocks. Institutions expect that the consumption Industry will continue to show moderate recovery in the second half of the year, traditional consumption sub-industries will generally warm up, while emerging consumption sub-industries are expected to achieve excess growth through structural transformation. In fact, as the 'three sisters' rise, the symbols that run out in the second half of the year may change, and there are many potential opportunities in the new consumption sub-industries.
    The 'new' in new consumption represents both a transformation of consumption concepts and a rebirth of industrial logic. The core driving force of the new consumption wave originates from the complete shift in consumption concepts among the young cohort. The '2025 Young People's Emotional Consumption Trend Report' released by Douyin Mall mentioned that emotional value is becoming an important factor influencing the consumption behavior of young people. 88.2% of young people feel stressed, and driven by a consumer mindset of 're-nurturing themselves', industries related to emotions such as trendy toys, culture and tourism, pets, and food and beverage are experiencing rapid development. Since 2013, the annual compound growth rate of emotion-related consumption sectors has been 12%, and it is expected that the emotional consumption market in China will exceed 2 trillion yuan by 2025.
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    The wave of business closures has become a hot topic in Hong Kong recently, with bad news coming one after another. From small street shops to chain restaurants and chain catering groups, many are issuing profit warnings. In this industry filled with lamentation, only companies that can pivot quickly and have a solid foundation will be able to stand firm in this cold winter. 大洋環球 (08476.HK), engaged in seafood wholesale and import-export business, $OCEAN ONE HLDG (08476.HK)$ is one such example, maintaining a trend of profit growth amidst the cold winter due to stable product quality, and is expected to benefit from the recent resumption of seafood imports in some regions of the mainland, making the future revenue growth potential of its mainland business worth noting.
    The challenges faced by the retail market in Hong Kong are evident from the retail data. The total retail sales value in May increased by 2.4%, ending 14 consecutive months of decline. Merchants must work hard to adapt to changes in consumption patterns. In addition to the rise of online shopping, consumers are also seeking products and services with better 'cost performance.' During this transformation, they must maintain stable service and product quality to retain customers.
    Under the cold winter of Hong Kong's dining industry, rapid transformation is necessary.
    When talking about examples of transformation, LH GROUP (01978.HK) must be mentioned. $LH GROUP (01978.HK)$ Initially known for operating Chinese restaurants, with the changing tastes of the Hong Kong dining market, it gradually transformed into an Asian cuisine restaurant, introducing several overseas brands through franchising, including familiar Japanese restaurants like "Gyukaku" and "Matsuya".
    Facing a sluggish market, LH GROUP's performance still needs to...
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    The situation of the tariff war is changing rapidly, causing severe market fluctuations, but some sectors perform brilliantly. As stimulating domestic demand becomes an important means to boost the economy and is less related to foreign trade, Hong Kong's domestic consumption sector has strengthened, not only giving rise to emerging consumer stocks with a market cap exceeding 100 billion, but also sparking a 'treasure hunting' craze in the consumer sector.
    Since the beginning of this year, a series of policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption have been rolled out in the mainland. The Central Economic Work Conference held in March 2025 listed 'greatly boosting consumption, improving investment efficiency, and expanding domestic demand in all areas' as the primary focus of economic work for that year.
    In the same month, the General Office of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the General Office of the State Council issued the 'Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption', which proposed measures to promote reasonable growth of wage income, scientifically increase the minimum wage standard, strengthen support for childbirth and child-rearing, study the establishment of a childcare subsidy system, and increase support for old-for-new consumer goods exchange, all of which are expected to bring significant bullish effects to domestic demand stocks. Recently, various places in the mainland are gradually introducing a new round of stimulus policies, which means that a package of policies to expand domestic demand is continuing to advance for the capital markets.
    The transition in the consumption sector is generating new consumer blue-chip stocks.
    The domestic demand consumption sector, as a key national policy, is worth paying attention to. However, in recent years, consumption trends have rapidly shifted, and sub-sectors have shown structural adjustments: traditional consumption tracks such as liquor and dairy have decreased in popularity, and the "king's" position of consumer stocks has quietly changed, initiating a new growth narrative. In fact, this year, POP MART (09992.HK). $POP MART (09992.HK)$With the...
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