October FOMC Interest Rate Meeting

Click to reserve a spot for the live stream and don’t miss the broadcast reminder.~

At 2:00 AM Beijing Time on October 30, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release its interest rate decision and Summary of Economic Projections.Following this, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference on monetary policy at 2:30 AM.

The CME FedWatch Tool shows that the market currently assigns a 98% probability to a 25-basis-point rate cut.If expectations materialize, the target range for the federal funds rate will be lowered from the current 4%-4.25% to 3.75%-4%. This would mark the second consecutive action since the Fed resumed its rate-cutting cycle in September, further confirming the continuation of accommodative policies.

Behind the high certainty of rate cut expectations lies the Federal Reserve's difficult balancing act between "full employment" and "price stability."

The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has added unique challenges to this rate-setting meeting.Due to the government shutdown, some key macroeconomic data have been difficult to obtain in a timely manner. This 'data drought' has made this meeting feel more like a 'voyage in the dark.' However,Last Friday saw the release of the first major data since the U.S. government shutdown – September's U.S. CPI rose 3.0% year-over-year, slightly higher than August's 2.9%, but overall below market expectations. This eased concerns about inflation rebounding and provided room for a rate cut.

The current focus of the market has shifted more from 'whether to cut rates' to 'the future pace of rate cuts.'In the absence of sufficient data, internal divisions within the Federal Reserve have become more pronounced. Stephen Moore, a governor nominated by Trump, has consistently called for an aggressive 50-basis-point rate cut, while most officials remain cautious about the risk of inflation rebounding.Can the latest dot plot provide any clues about whether another rate cut will occur in December? How Chair Powell will balance internal views and guide market expectations has become the biggest point of interest. Additionally,whether the Federal Reserve will announce adjustments or the end of its quantitative tightening policy at this meeting is also drawing significant attention.

Amid the shadow of a global economic slowdown, ongoing volatility in U.S. Treasury yields and escalating geopolitical risks, every statement from the Federal Reserve could trigger significant market fluctuations.Gold once hit a record high following the September interest rate meeting, while U.S. equities experienced substantial volatility amid trade tensions. What kind of asset storm will this time bring?

Fellow investors are welcome to schedule viewing~ Don't miss any exciting moments!

$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$

$XAU/USD (XAUUSD.CFD)$ $U.S. 20-Year Treasury Bonds Yield (US20Y.BD)$ $U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$ $U.S. 2-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US2Y.BD)$

2M Views