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NVIDIA's revenue doubles, beating expectations; is the AI trade narrative making a comeback?
百刀玩期权
joined discussion · Aug 24 18:23

$100 Options Opportunity Pool | NVIDIA earnings week, Tesla Cybercab catalyst, low IV play on two giants

Hello, fellow investors! Welcome to this week’s BaiDao Options Opportunity Pool! Each week, we focus on clear market themes and highlight low-barrier options opportunities worth watching. We don’t chase tales of 1,000x returns in a day—instead, we focus on: what’s the logic, is it worth your attention, and where lies the risk?
This Week’s Market Focus
This week's two main market narratives both point to "event-driven" moves in tech giants.
The first isNVIDIA (NVDA) earnings report——the "undisputed market leader" will release its latest quarterly results after the market close on August 26.
Market attention is heavily focused on three long-term issues: the Rubin cycle, cyclical financing, and forward market share. Coupled with recent rumors of a "15% price hike" and debates over the HBM memory roadmap, there is significant room for volatility around the earnings release. Notably, NVDA's current implied volatility (IV) percentile is only around 48%, which is not particularly high, suggesting that the market has not yet priced in extreme expectations for this earnings report.
The second isTesla (TSLA)'s Cybercab catalyst—after plunging following its late-July earnings report, it has recently rebounded continuously on expectations for the Austin Cybercab launch event, with a single-day rebound exceeding 5% last week. TSLA's IV percentile is even lower, at just around 4%, a rarely seen low reading.
Both stocks are trading in the "hundreds" price range (NVDA around $215, TSLA around $363), compared to $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ 、 $SanDisk (SNDK.US)$ Using options to express views is much more accessible than trading those mega-cap stocks that easily cost thousands per share.
Target #1: $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$
NVIDIA is undoubtedly the star of the week, and the reason is simple:It will report earnings after the market close on August 26, an event drawing intense market attention. Given the pattern of the past few quarters, the market has grown accustomed to "beating earnings estimates and raising guidance." What truly determines stock price elasticity are three longer-term questions: whether the Rubin cycle can continue, the sustainability of circular financing, and future market share.
Meanwhile, there are two additional recent catalysts: First, rumors of NVIDIA "raising prices by 15%" have sparked debate over whether this will "decimate the market" like Apple's passive price hike two months ago, or if it signals another rally for the hardware supply chain. Second, its self-developed open-source models and supply chain lock-in are viewed as a moat not yet fully priced in by the market.
Hello, fellow investors! Welcome to this week’s BaiDao Options Opportunity Pool! Each week, we focus on clear market themes and highlight low-barrier options opportunities worth watching. We don’t chase tales of 1,000x returns in a day—instead, we focus on: what’s the logic, is it worth your attention, and where lies the risk? This Week’s Market Focus This week's two main market themes both point to "event-driven" moves in tech giants. The first isNVIDIA (NVDA) earnings——the "undisputed market leader" will release its latest quarterly results after the bell on August 26. Market attention is heavily focused on three long-term issues: the Rubin cycle, cyclical financing, and forward market share. Coupled with recent rumors of a "15% price hike" and debates over the HBM memory roadmap, there is significant room for volatility around the earnings report. Notably, NVDA's current IV percentile is only around 48%, which is not particularly high, suggesting that the market has not yet priced in extreme expectations for this earnings release. The second isTesla (TSLA)'s Cybercab catalyst—after a sharp drop following late July's earnings, the stock has been rebounding recently on expectations for the Austin Cybercab launch event, with a single-day gain of over 5% last week. TSLA's IV percentile is even lower, at just around 4%, a rare reading. Both stocks are trading in the "hundreds" price range (NVDA around $215, TSLA around $363), compared to $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ 、 ��...
Looking at the volatility chart, NVIDIA's current implied volatility (IV) is around 43.75%, with an IV percentile of approximately 48%, placing it in the lower-middle range. In other words, the "ticket price" for the upcoming earnings drama is still relatively restrained.
Hello, fellow investors! Welcome to this week’s BaiDao Options Opportunity Pool! Each week, we focus on clear market themes and highlight low-barrier options opportunities worth watching. We don’t chase tales of 1,000x returns in a day—instead, we focus on: what’s the logic, is it worth your attention, and where lies the risk? This Week’s Market Focus This week's two main market themes both point to "event-driven" moves in tech giants. The first isNVIDIA (NVDA) earnings——the "undisputed market leader" will release its latest quarterly results after the bell on August 26. Market attention is heavily focused on three long-term issues: the Rubin cycle, cyclical financing, and forward market share. Coupled with recent rumors of a "15% price hike" and debates over the HBM memory roadmap, there is significant room for volatility around the earnings report. Notably, NVDA's current IV percentile is only around 48%, which is not particularly high, suggesting that the market has not yet priced in extreme expectations for this earnings release. The second isTesla (TSLA)'s Cybercab catalyst—after a sharp drop following late July's earnings, the stock has been rebounding recently on expectations for the Austin Cybercab launch event, with a single-day gain of over 5% last week. TSLA's IV percentile is even lower, at just around 4%, a rare reading. Both stocks are trading in the "hundreds" price range (NVDA around $215, TSLA around $363), compared to $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ 、 ��...
(The design images shown on screen are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or guarantees; market conditions change rapidly, and the displayed option prices do not reflect real-time data. Options shown are filtered around the $1 strike price.)
Bullish rationale:
"Beating earnings estimates + raising guidance" has become the norm in recent quarters. If this trend continues, coupled with the Rubin cycle narrative, the stock may gain upward momentum.
If the "15% price hike" is interpreted by the market as a signal of strong demand and increased bargaining power, it could serve as a sentiment catalyst. Additionally, HSBC points out that self-developed open-source models and supply chain lock-in are positive factors not yet fully priced in.
Hello, fellow investors! Welcome to this week’s BaiDao Options Opportunity Pool! Each week, we focus on clear market themes and highlight low-barrier options opportunities worth watching. We don’t chase tales of 1,000x returns in a day—instead, we focus on: what’s the logic, is it worth your attention, and where lies the risk? This Week’s Market Focus This week's two main market themes both point to "event-driven" moves in tech giants. The first isNVIDIA (NVDA) earnings——the "undisputed market leader" will release its latest quarterly results after the bell on August 26. Market attention is heavily focused on three long-term issues: the Rubin cycle, cyclical financing, and forward market share. Coupled with recent rumors of a "15% price hike" and debates over the HBM memory roadmap, there is significant room for volatility around the earnings report. Notably, NVDA's current IV percentile is only around 48%, which is not particularly high, suggesting that the market has not yet priced in extreme expectations for this earnings release. The second isTesla (TSLA)'s Cybercab catalyst—after a sharp drop following late July's earnings, the stock has been rebounding recently on expectations for the Austin Cybercab launch event, with a single-day gain of over 5% last week. TSLA's IV percentile is even lower, at just around 4%, a rare reading. Both stocks are trading in the "hundreds" price range (NVDA around $215, TSLA around $363), compared to $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ 、 ��...
(The design images shown on screen are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or guarantees; market conditions change rapidly, and the displayed option prices do not reflect real-time data. Options shown are filtered around the $1 strike price.)
Bearish Thesis:
Expectations for an earnings "beat" are already extremely high. If results or guidance merely "meet" rather than "significantly exceed" expectations, the stock may pull back due to "sell the news" dynamics—a script that has played out frequently for NVIDIA in recent quarters.
The stock price is approaching its 52-week high, facing potential strong technical resistance, which means the margin of safety for chasing highs is narrowing.
Target #2: $Tesla (TSLA.US)$
The core catalyst for Tesla's current trajectory is very clear:The Cybercab launch event in Austin on September 3rd.
Tesla's stock plunged after its late-July earnings report, but it has been rebounding recently on expectations surrounding the mass production and launch of the Cybercab (a steering-wheel-free autonomous taxi). Last Friday, it even saw a single-day rebound of over 5%.
The company had previously officially announced the event date on platform X, effectively giving the market a clear "countdown." Recent research by JPMorgan at Tesla's factories also indicates that the two core narratives—scaled deployment of Robotaxis and the Optimus humanoid robot—are moving from "concepts" to "quantifiable execution paths."
In other words, Tesla is currently experiencing a typical "narrative-driven" rally: the story is compelling, but the pace of realization is full of variables.
Hello, fellow investors! Welcome to this week’s BaiDao Options Opportunity Pool! Each week, we focus on clear market themes and highlight low-barrier options opportunities worth watching. We don’t chase tales of 1,000x returns in a day—instead, we focus on: what’s the logic, is it worth your attention, and where lies the risk? This Week’s Market Focus This week's two main market themes both point to "event-driven" moves in tech giants. The first isNVIDIA (NVDA) earnings——the "undisputed market leader" will release its latest quarterly results after the bell on August 26. Market attention is heavily focused on three long-term issues: the Rubin cycle, cyclical financing, and forward market share. Coupled with recent rumors of a "15% price hike" and debates over the HBM memory roadmap, there is significant room for volatility around the earnings report. Notably, NVDA's current IV percentile is only around 48%, which is not particularly high, suggesting that the market has not yet priced in extreme expectations for this earnings release. The second isTesla (TSLA)'s Cybercab catalyst—after a sharp drop following late July's earnings, the stock has been rebounding recently on expectations for the Austin Cybercab launch event, with a single-day gain of over 5% last week. TSLA's IV percentile is even lower, at just around 4%, a rare reading. Both stocks are trading in the "hundreds" price range (NVDA around $215, TSLA around $363), compared to $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ 、 ��...
Looking at the volatility chart, TSLA's implied volatility (IV) is around 44.46%, but its IV percentile is only about 4%—This is a quite rare and extremely low reading, meaning that relative to its own historical volatility levels, the market's "volatility expectation" for the stock is currently at a trough. For those looking to position themselves before the launch event, the "entry ticket" in this low-IV environment is relatively cheap; however, keep in mind that low IV often appears during the "calm before the storm."
Hello, fellow investors! Welcome to this week’s BaiDao Options Opportunity Pool! Each week, we focus on clear market themes and highlight low-barrier options opportunities worth watching. We don’t chase tales of 1,000x returns in a day—instead, we focus on: what’s the logic, is it worth your attention, and where lies the risk? This Week’s Market Focus This week's two main market themes both point to "event-driven" moves in tech giants. The first isNVIDIA (NVDA) earnings——the "undisputed market leader" will release its latest quarterly results after the bell on August 26. Market attention is heavily focused on three long-term issues: the Rubin cycle, cyclical financing, and forward market share. Coupled with recent rumors of a "15% price hike" and debates over the HBM memory roadmap, there is significant room for volatility around the earnings report. Notably, NVDA's current IV percentile is only around 48%, which is not particularly high, suggesting that the market has not yet priced in extreme expectations for this earnings release. The second isTesla (TSLA)'s Cybercab catalyst—after a sharp drop following late July's earnings, the stock has been rebounding recently on expectations for the Austin Cybercab launch event, with a single-day gain of over 5% last week. TSLA's IV percentile is even lower, at just around 4%, a rare reading. Both stocks are trading in the "hundreds" price range (NVDA around $215, TSLA around $363), compared to $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ 、 ��...
(The design images shown on screen are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or guarantees; market conditions change rapidly, and the displayed option prices do not reflect real-time data. Options shown are filtered around the $1 strike price.)
Bullish rationale:
The Cybercab launch is a clear catalyst event. If the mass production progress and Robotaxi operating model demonstrated on-site exceed market expectations, sentiment could be further ignited.
Institutional research shows that Robotaxi and Optimus are transitioning from concepts to quantifiable execution. Such "milestone deliveries" often have an amplifying effect on stocks like Tesla, which are priced based on narratives.
Hello, fellow investors! Welcome to this week’s BaiDao Options Opportunity Pool! Each week, we focus on clear market themes and highlight low-barrier options opportunities worth watching. We don’t chase tales of 1,000x returns in a day—instead, we focus on: what’s the logic, is it worth your attention, and where lies the risk? This Week’s Market Focus This week's two main market themes both point to "event-driven" moves in tech giants. The first isNVIDIA (NVDA) earnings——the "undisputed market leader" will release its latest quarterly results after the bell on August 26. Market attention is heavily focused on three long-term issues: the Rubin cycle, cyclical financing, and forward market share. Coupled with recent rumors of a "15% price hike" and debates over the HBM memory roadmap, there is significant room for volatility around the earnings report. Notably, NVDA's current IV percentile is only around 48%, which is not particularly high, suggesting that the market has not yet priced in extreme expectations for this earnings release. The second isTesla (TSLA)'s Cybercab catalyst—after a sharp drop following late July's earnings, the stock has been rebounding recently on expectations for the Austin Cybercab launch event, with a single-day gain of over 5% last week. TSLA's IV percentile is even lower, at just around 4%, a rare reading. Both stocks are trading in the "hundreds" price range (NVDA around $215, TSLA around $363), compared to $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ 、 ��...
(The design images shown on screen are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or guarantees; market conditions change rapidly, and the displayed option prices do not reflect real-time data. Options shown are filtered around the $1 strike price.)
Bearish Thesis:
Tesla's recent gains have already run their course, representing a "rebound driven by expectations." Once the content of the launch event fails to meet the market's high expectations (e.g., vague mass production timelines or lackluster details), it is highly prone to a "sell-the-news" pullback.
The memory of the sharp drop following Tesla's late-July earnings report still lingers, indicating that the market remains divided on Tesla's fundamentals (deliveries, profit margins). The real-world pressures beyond the growth narrative have not disappeared.
If you feel the barrier to entry for the underlying stock is still too high
If you find the threshold for trading options directly on NVIDIA or Tesla still too high, there are two 2x long leveraged ETFs in the market that can serve as "alternative exposure tools"— $GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF (NVDL.US)$ one corresponding to NVIDIA, $Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares (TSLL.US)$ and the other to Tesla. Their underlying share prices are much lower, making their associated options more accessible for smaller capital amounts.
However, a serious warning regarding the unique risks of leveraged ETFs is necessary:
daily reset: These ETFs track 2x the "daily" price movement of the underlying stock, not 2x the cumulative return over a period. Holding them for more than one day will cause actual returns to deviate from the intuitive "2x" expectation due to daily compounding.
Volatility decay: In choppy markets, even if the underlying stock trades flat, leveraged ETFs may suffer continuous net asset value erosion due to daily rebalancing; the longer the holding period, the greater the loss.
Compounded leverage effectThe ETF itself already carries 2x leverage. Adding options leverage on top creates a "leverage on leverage" effect, which drastically amplifies volatility. While gains can accumulate quickly, losses can accelerate even faster, potentially leading to a rapid wipeout of capital.
Leveraged ETFs are more suitable for short-term trading by experienced fellow investors who can strictly manage their holding periods. Long-term holding is not recommended.
Important Notice
Options are instruments with expiration dates. If you buy calls or puts and the direction is wrong or the price movement is insufficient at expiration, you could lose your entire principal.
Both targets this week areevent-driventype opportunities (NVIDIA's after-hours earnings report on August 26, Tesla's product launch). Implied Volatility (IV) may rise before the events, followed by an IV crush afterward (where option prices automatically deflate as uncertainty dissipates). This means that even if you correctly predict the direction, your options may still lose value or result in a loss if the stock price movement is not significant enough.
Regarding entry timing, time decay accelerates as the event approaches, so you need to balance the "cost of early positioning" against the "high premium near the event." Additionally, since NVIDIA and Tesla both belong to the tech sector, broader market sentiment may cause correlated movements. On the macro front, pay attention to US Treasury yields and Powell's remarks at the global central bankers' symposium. Avoid excessive concentration in your positions.
Not familiar with options basics? Study up before jumping in.
If, while reading this opportunity list, you're still unclear about concepts like 'What is a Long Call?' or 'How do I interpret strike prices?', don’t rush to place orders—take some time first to solidify your foundation. We’ve compiled practical beginner resources below; consider bookmarking them:
Long Call: Buy a call option
Long Put: Buy a put option
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Hello, fellow investors! Welcome to this week’s BaiDao Options Opportunity Pool! Each week, we focus on clear market themes and highlight low-barrier options opportunities worth watching. We don’t chase tales of 1,000x returns in a day—instead, we focus on: what’s the logic, is it worth your attention, and where lies the risk? This Week’s Market Focus This week's two main market themes both point to "event-driven" moves in tech giants. The first isNVIDIA (NVDA) earnings——the "undisputed market leader" will release its latest quarterly results after the bell on August 26. Market attention is heavily focused on three long-term issues: the Rubin cycle, cyclical financing, and forward market share. Coupled with recent rumors of a "15% price hike" and debates over the HBM memory roadmap, there is significant room for volatility around the earnings report. Notably, NVDA's current IV percentile is only around 48%, which is not particularly high, suggesting that the market has not yet priced in extreme expectations for this earnings release. The second isTesla (TSLA)'s Cybercab catalyst—after a sharp drop following late July's earnings, the stock has been rebounding recently on expectations for the Austin Cybercab launch event, with a single-day gain of over 5% last week. TSLA's IV percentile is even lower, at just around 4%, a rare reading. Both stocks are trading in the "hundreds" price range (NVDA around $215, TSLA around $363), compared to $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ 、 ��...
Disclaimer
This content does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion, or any guarantee regarding any securities, financial products, or instruments. The risk of loss in trading options can be substantial. In certain circumstances, your losses may exceed the initial margin deposit. Even if you place contingent orders, such as 'stop-loss' or 'limit' orders, there is no assurance that losses will be avoided. Market conditions may prevent these orders from being executed. You may be required to deposit additional margin on short notice. If you fail to meet the required margin within the specified time, your open positions may be liquidated. Nevertheless, you remain liable for any deficit balance in your account resulting from such events. Therefore, you should thoroughly research and understand options before trading, and carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you based on your financial condition and investment objectives. If you trade options, you should familiarize yourself with the procedures for exercising options and handling expiration, as well as your rights and obligations upon exercise or expiration.
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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