CNOOC's defense of the RMB 26 level continues, as the market sentiment shifts from dividend-focused to concerns over a slow bear market

Recent market sentiment has been quite contradictory. On one hand, international oil prices have remained volatile at high levels, combined with the company’s high dividend characteristics and continued allocation by southbound funds, leading many investors to still view it as a core target for long-term income. On the other hand, the stock price has remained weak for an extended period, and even a rebound in oil prices has failed to drive a meaningful breakout, causing the market to start expressing concerns about a 'slow bear' or 'gradual decline'.

CNOOC closed at 26.42 yuan last Friday (15th), with an RSI of approximately 43, generating a 'buy' technical signal, though it remains in a neutral-to-weak range. In comparison with its peers in the 'three major oil companies', $PETROCHINA (00857.HK)$ closed at 10.89 yuan, with an RSI of approximately 50, generating a 'neutral' technical signal (high volatility); $SINOPEC CORP (00386.HK)$ closed at 4.49 yuan, with an RSI of approximately 39, generating a 'buy' technical signal (approaching oversold). This indicates that the oil and gas sector as a whole is in a phase of 'high-level pullback, lacking upward momentum.' Although CNOOC has buy signal support, if PetroChina and Sinopec fail to stabilize and rebound, it will be extremely challenging for CNOOC to advance alone. The defense of the 26-yuan level depends more on the overall sentiment recovery of the sector.

The most critical sentiment in the market right now isn't about short-term spikes, but rather 'whether it's still worth holding onto in the long term'.

From the comments, it can be seen that bullish opinions are mainly concentrated in three areas. First, there’s the logic of high dividends and long-term holding. Some investors mentioned directly that their family members have been holding CNOOC for over twenty years, from RMB 9 per share until now, relying on dividends and long-term appreciation to reach near-retirement. These types of comments are significant because CNOOC’s current primary support is no longer just oil prices, but its identity as a 'high-yield defensive stock'.

Second, there’s valuation and oil price support. Many voices in the market believe that at current oil price levels, CNOOC’s stock remains undervalued, and with geopolitical risks and factors like the Strait of Hormuz, this theoretically bodes well for the energy sector. Third, there’s continued accumulation by southbound funds and the dividend factor. Many investors aren’t expecting a sudden surge, but rather are waiting for dividends and a slow bull market structure.

However, bearish sentiment has also clearly risen recently. The main reason is that the market has started questioning, 'If oil prices rise, why isn’t 883 rising?' Comments like 'slow decline,' 'slow bear,' 'false rallies,' 'treading water,' and 'a month-long drop' have appeared repeatedly, indicating that investors are starting to lose patience with the stock’s performance.

Particularly noteworthy is that the market has begun to view 26.4 yuan as an important psychological level. Numerous comments focus on discussions such as 'stop loss if it breaks below 26.42,' '26.4 as support,' and '25.8 offers support,' suggesting that the market has shifted from expecting a rise above 30 yuan to worrying about whether 26 yuan can hold.

In terms of technical trends, CNOOC’s current price is 26.52 yuan. The short-term direction is weak, but overall, it still falls within a large range-bound fluctuation. The stock price is below the 50-day moving average of 27.34 yuan, but still above the 200-day moving average of 22.89 yuan, indicating that the medium-term uptrend is not completely broken, although the short-term structure has visibly weakened.

The most critical support level currently is 25.84 yuan. This level is very close to the widely mentioned 25.8 yuan, making it not just a technical support but also a psychological defense line for the market. If 25.84 yuan is breached, the market could easily retest lower levels, which might further intensify the 'slow bear' sentiment.

On the resistance side, 27.34 yuan is the key short-term threshold, coinciding with the 50-day moving average. If CNOOC fails to move back above 27.34 yuan, all rebounds will still be considered fluctuations rather than a true reversal to strength. Above that, the 29.12 yuan region will be a significant pressure point for any subsequent medium-term rebound.

The Relative Strength Index is approximately 43, which is neutral-to-weak, not yet reaching extreme oversold levels. The ADX is around 18.47, indicating that the current trend strength is not extreme; thus, the situation resembles a 'slow grinding decline' rather than a sharp collapse. The ATR is approximately 0.62, also suggesting that CNOOC’s volatility is not particularly high, consistent with the market’s positioning of it as a 'dividend stock.'

The most common question in the market now is whether 26 yuan can hold, whether it’s suitable for dividend collection, and why oil prices haven’t driven the stock price. Technically speaking, the 25.84 to 26 yuan area is entering a crucial support zone, so there may be opportunities for a short-term technical rebound. However, if the stock price cannot return and stay above 27.34 yuan, it would indicate that the market has yet to regain confidence.

Additionally, the market is beginning to see capital rotation issues. Some comments mention 'everyone is bottom-fishing semiconductors,' reflecting that recent market funds are more inclined towards AI and tech concepts rather than traditional energy stocks. This is one of the key reasons why CNOOC’s stock remains weak despite oil price support.

Overall, CNOOC remains a high-dividend defensive stock, but the market has gradually shifted from simply believing in 'steady dividends' to worrying about 'prolonged slow declines.' If 25.84 yuan can hold firm, supported by oil prices and geopolitical risks, the stock price may have a chance to challenge above 27 yuan again. However, if 25.84 yuan is breached, the market may further question whether the slow bull run has ended.

Reply to some investors' views:

@錢兔似錦: If the level of HK$25.84 holds steady, there is indeed a short-term opportunity for a technical rebound.

@天選破產人: The long-term dividend yield rationale remains intact and continues to be the market's primary source of support.

@Ha Ha 2026: Southbound capital inflows have indeed helped stabilize market sentiment.

Based on the above analysis, the strategies for deployment can be divided into the following main approaches:

CNOOC (0883)

Key Deployment Levels: Currently trading at HK$26.42, the stock remains in a consolidation phase near recent highs in the short term. HK$25.80 is a critical support level—if this holds, there remains upside potential toward HK$28.00; however, if HK$25.80 is breached, beware of increased downside pressure.

Strategy 1 | Rebound Play from Lower Levels
$UBCNOOC@EC2611A.C (29920.HK)$ | Strike Price: HK$25.90 | Effective Leverage: 7.0x | Close to current price range—suitable for deploying after a pullback to capture a rebound
$UBCNOOC@EC2611B.C (26707.HK)$ | Strike Price: HK$31.88 | Effective Leverage: 7.8x | Balanced leverage and out-of-the-money level—ideal for medium-to-short-term recovery plays
$UBCNOOC@EC2609A.C (26542.HK)$ | Strike Price: HK$33.90 | Effective Leverage: 9.1x | Higher sensitivity—suited for amplifying short-term upside moves

Strategy 2 | Breakout Momentum Play
$UBCNOOC@EC2607A.C (22559.HK)$ | Strike price 28.9 yuan | Actual leverage 11.7x | High momentum after breaking through 28 yuan, suitable for following the trend
$UBCNOOC@EC2609B.C (26708.HK)$ | Strike price 29.88 yuan | Actual leverage 8.1x | Close to the breakout zone, suitable for short-term trend-following strategies
$HSCNOOC@EC2609A.C (25501.HK)$ | Strike price 32.18 yuan | Actual leverage 9.3x | Suitable for use when expecting oil prices to drive an extended upward trend

Strategy Three | Deployment upon breaking through support level
$UBCNOOC@EP2609A.P (26838.HK)$ | Strike price 24.86 yuan | Actual leverage 6.6x | Close to the support level, suitable for capturing weakness after breaking below 25.8 yuan
$CTCNOOC@EP2609A.P (27165.HK)$ | Strike price 22.48 yuan | Actual leverage 8.7x | High-leverage product, suitable for short-term sharp declines
$CICNOOC@EP2609A.P (26582.HK)$ | Strike price 24.88 yuan | Actual leverage 6.2x | Suitable for medium-short term bearish defense strategies

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Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; asset performance should be comprehensively evaluated using other sources of information, and trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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