[HKEX Podcast] Hang Seng Index, Kuaishou, China Resources Beer, Alibaba, SMIC, Li Auto - Post-market analysis for May 11

: Some investors believe it will test 26,800 points and have chosen to buy bull certificates with a stop-loss level at 24,850 points. Other investors think there will be resistance at 26,500 points and opted to buy bear certificates in the closing session, setting the stop-loss level at 26,700 points.

The current price of the Hang Seng Index is 26,406.84, with short-term structure indicating consolidation after a rebound. The index is currently above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands at 26,103.45 but has not yet touched the upper band at 26,642.33, reflecting a stable but not yet strengthening trend. In terms of moving averages, the current price is slightly above the 10-day line at 26,112.89 and the 20-day line at 26,103.45, but still constrained by overhead resistance, maintaining a sideways yet stable pattern overall.

Support can initially be observed around 26,100, where the middle band of the Bollinger Bands overlaps with the short-term moving averages. If this support is broken, the next downside target would be 25,564.57, corresponding to the lower band of the Bollinger Bands. On the resistance side, 26,642.33 is the most critical short-term level, close to the market's focus range between 26,500 and 26,800. If it fails to break through effectively, the rebound structure will struggle to evolve into a trending movement.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at approximately 59, indicating neutral-to-strong momentum without entering the bullish zone, reflecting that the market is still observing whether there is enough momentum to break through overhead resistance. Trading volumes do not show significant expansion to support a breakout, signaling that funds have not fully committed, keeping short-term operations within a range.

Market sentiment shows clear divergence. Some investors believe the index could test 26,800 points and are choosing to buy bull contracts with a stop-loss at 24,850, a strategy aimed at deploying for a medium-term rebound with a distant stop-loss. Others think there is resistance at 26,500 and have bought bear contracts with a stop-loss at 26,700 towards the close, reflecting some funds are pre-emptively positioning for a pullback at resistance levels.

For bullish positions targeting a test of 26,800, the key is whether the index can break through and stabilize above 26,642.33. Only after a successful breakout above the upper Bollinger Band will there technically be room to extend towards 26,800; otherwise, it remains range-bound volatility near the upper band. The stop-loss at 24,850 is relatively far from the current price, offering a good short-term safety margin, but if the index fails to break out, time decay and repeated fluctuations will affect position efficiency.

As for bearish strategies deployed near 26,500, the logic lies in taking an early counter-position before resistance breaks. However, note that the 26,700 stop-loss is relatively close to the current price, meaning a false breakout or sudden spike could rapidly amplify risks. This type of deployment suits very short-term intraday trades rather than holding positions for extended periods.

Overall, the Hang Seng Index remains in a consolidation phase between 26,100 and 26,642 without a clear direction. A breakout above 26,642 would open up upward potential; otherwise, the range between 26,500 and 26,600 may continue to face pressure. If it breaks below 26,100, downside support should be watched. For short-term strategies, focus on "waiting for a breakout or a pullback" rather than chasing prices in the middle of the range.

Kuaishou-W (01024.HK): Investors ask, is it really that hard to reach 56 yuan? Some investors continue to focus on call warrants with an exercise price of 58 yuan, believing the stock price will challenge 60 yuan.

Kuaishou’s current price is 51.600, having rebounded significantly from its recent low of 41.920, and has broken through the upper Bollinger Band at 51.004. The trend has shifted from weak sideways movement to a short-term breakout. The current price is above the 10-day moving average (45.893), 20-day moving average (45.691), and 30-day moving average (45.889), reflecting a noticeable improvement in the short-term structure.

Technically, 51.004 is now the most critical threshold. As long as the stock price holds above it, the short-term uptrend can remain intact, with the next observation level being the 56-yuan mark that investors are watching. However, the Relative Strength Index is currently around 74.912, entering overbought territory, indicating that while the upward momentum is strong, the risk of chasing the rally also increases. In terms of trading volume, turnover has noticeably increased, supporting the breakout, though short-term volatility may occur after the rapid rise.

Investors asking 'Is reaching 56 yuan so difficult?' need to focus less on the 56-yuan level itself and more on whether the stock price can hold above 51 yuan first. Kuaishou has rebounded from 41.920 to 51.600, representing a substantial short-term gain, and the market needs time to digest profit-taking. If the price can hold above 51.004 with continued volume support, 56 yuan can remain the next rebound target; otherwise, if it falls below 51.004, the breakout fails, and the price might retest support around 45.893–45.691.

As for investors who continue to focus on call warrants with an exercise price of 58 yuan and expect the stock price to challenge 60 yuan, their strategy reflects optimism about an extended breakout. If Kuaishou can stabilize above 51.004 and gradually approach 56 yuan, warrant leverage will increase. However, the 58-yuan exercise price is still above the current price, making it an aggressive play requiring sustained upward movement to be favorable. If the stock merely fluctuates between 51 and 56 yuan, time decay will impact position efficiency.

Overall, Kuaishou has transitioned from weak to strong in the short term, but it's not risk-free to chase gains. The key short-term level is 51.004; holding above this could extend the target to 56, and breaking above 56 would warrant further observation toward 60. If it fails to hold 51.004, it indicates insufficient breakout momentum, and a near-term consolidation around 45.7 is likely.

3. China Resources Beer (00291.HK): Investors believe that the World Cup in June might drive an upward movement; what’s the resistance level to watch?

China Resources Beer is currently trading at 27.020, with a noticeable improvement in its short-term rebound. The stock has moved back above the 10-day line at 26.326, the 20-day line at 26.255, and the 30-day line at 26.151, shifting the technical structure from earlier lows to a relatively stronger position. The price is now approaching the upper Bollinger Band at 27.148, which is the nearest direct resistance level.

Investors believe that the World Cup in June might trigger an upward movement. From a technical perspective, the first resistance level to watch is 27.148. If the stock can break and stabilize above 27.148, there may be a short-term opportunity to test 27.860, near the previous high. In other words, 27.148 is the short-term breakout threshold, while 27.860 is the next clear upside target.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 66.883, showing strong momentum but not yet extremely overheated, indicating the potential for further testing of resistance levels. However, if the price fails to break above 27.148, it might consolidate between 26.255 and 27.148. Immediate support can be found between 26.326 and 26.255; if this range is breached, the strength of the short-term rebound will weaken.

Overall, China Resources Beer is not in a weak position at present. In the short term, the focus is on the resistance at 27.148; once broken, the next target is 27.860. For further confirmation of the uptrend, the stock needs to stabilize above 27.148 rather than relying solely on a single day’s spike.

4. Alibaba-W (09988.HK): Investors observed a surge in trading volume in the closing market, with significant selling by major players. Will it retreat to 125? Some investors are holding call warrants with an exercise price of 168.98.

Alibaba is currently trading at 133.900, showing a pullback after a short-term rebound and now consolidating. The stock price remains above the 20-day line at 131.985 and the 30-day line at 128.993 but has fallen below the 10-day line near 132.420 before retreating again, reflecting weakening short-term support. The upper Bollinger Band is at 141.304, the middle band at 131.985, and the lower band at 122.666; for now, the current price holds above the middle band.

Investors observed significantly higher trading volumes in the closing market and are concerned about major players offloading shares, questioning if the stock will retreat to 125. Today’s decline accompanied by higher trading volume indeed reflects increased selling pressure, so the immediate focus is whether 131.985 can hold. If it breaks below 131.985, the next support level would be 128.993. Should 128.993 also fail, the risk of testing 125 or even 122.666 increases. In other words, 125 isn’t an immediate target but a downside area to defend once the midline and 30-day line are breached.

Investors holding call warrants with a strike price of 168.98 have adopted a more aggressive stance. The current price at 133.900 is still far from the strike price, and the stock needs to rise above 141.304 for the short-term structure to strengthen again. If the price fluctuates between 131.985 and 141.304, the call warrants could suffer from time decay. If the price falls below 131.985, the position’s risk will increase further.

Overall, the key short-term level for Alibaba is 131.985. Holding above that level indicates consolidation above the midline. Breaking below would first bring 128.993 into focus, followed by the 125 range. To improve the trend, the stock would need to reclaim 141.304; otherwise, the current rebound should not be considered a renewed strengthening.

SMIC (00981.HK): Investors worried about buying at high levels are asking where they should enter on a pullback. Some investors expressed they wouldn't let go until the price drops to below 80, while others hold call warrants with a strike price of 80.05.

SMIC is currently trading at 76.600, showing a clear short-term uptrend as the price is now above the 10-day line at 71.550, the 20-day line at 65.558, and the 30-day line at 61.645, nearing the upper Bollinger Band at 78.923, indicating a strong rebound into overbought territory. The relative strength index (RSI) is around 71.598, suggesting strong momentum, but it's entering overheated territory, increasing risks for chasing higher prices.

Worried about chasing highs, investors are asking where to re-enter. Technically, they may look at the 10-day line around 71.550. If the stock pulls back from the highs but holds above 71.550, it remains a healthy correction. A break below 71.550 brings the 20-day line at 65.558 into play. It’s unwise to chase prices near the resistance at 78.923; waiting for a pullback to support levels is more reasonable.

As for those who won’t let go until the price hits 80 and hold call warrants with a strike price of 80.05, the critical level to watch is 78.923. If SMIC can break and stabilize above 78.923, it might have the potential to challenge 80. Otherwise, the stock may oscillate at the current high level, exposing the call warrants to time decay and volatility risks.

Overall, SMIC remains relatively strong in the short term but is approaching a resistance zone. Above, first resistance lies at 78.923, then 80 upon a breakout. For pullback entry points, consider 71.550 initially, and for a safer bet, look near the 20-day line at 65.558.

Li Auto-W (02015.HK): Investors noted that the stock failed to break through 75 three times, and are considering whether to take a bearish position using Put options.

Li Auto is currently trading at 73.850, with short-term range-bound fluctuations before another attempt to test resistance. The stock price is currently above the 10-day moving average at 69.500, the 20-day moving average at 70.933, and the 30-day moving average at 70.902, indicating a relatively stable structure. However, the upper level at 75.151 corresponds to the upper Bollinger Band, which also aligns with the 75-level resistance area mentioned by investors.

Technically, the 75-level has indeed failed multiple times to break through effectively, making it a clear short-term resistance. If the stock price attempts to test near 75.151 again but fails to stabilize, forming a false breakout or leaving an upper shadow, the logic for taking a Put option based on resistance reversal holds. However, this type of positioning assumes 'non-breakout' as a premise, not merely presupposing a pullback due to past resistance.

It’s worth noting that the current stock price remains above the moving averages, with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of approximately 69.031, showing strong momentum but not overheated, suggesting the market may still have room for another breakout attempt. If the stock price breaks through and stabilizes above 75.151 with increased volume, the previous resistance will turn into support, significantly amplifying the risk for short positions taken via Puts.

On the downside, initial support can be seen around 70.933, which is where the middle Bollinger Band overlaps with the 20-day moving average. If this level is breached, the next support zone lies between 69.500 and 70.902. This is also the potential target area to consider when deploying reversal strategies.

Overall, the 75-level serves as a key short-term inflection point. Before a breakout occurs, initiating Put options upon signs of weakening at the resistance zone is a reasonable strategy. However, once a breakout happens and the price stabilizes above it, bearish bets should be abandoned immediately to avoid being squeezed in a reversal move.

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; asset performance should be comprehensively evaluated using other sources of information, and trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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