After Xiaomi rebounded to above 30 yuan, it still hasn't turned strong. Before retail investors rush in, we should first see if it can reclaim 31.143.

$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ The current price is 31.16, and in the short term, it's consolidating after a low-level rebound but hasn't truly strengthened yet. Although the share price is above the 10-day moving average of 30.662 and the lower Bollinger Band at 29.373, indicating improved short-term support, it remains below the 30-day moving average of 31.527, reflecting ongoing overhead pressure. The most important level now is not 30, but whether the middle axis of the Bollinger Bands at 31.143 can hold steady. Only a clear breakout above this watershed will further improve the rebound structure.

In terms of trading volume, the latest trading bar shows an increase in volume along with a rise in stock price, which is a positive signal, indicating that funds are not completely absent and there is some support for the rebound from the lows. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 50.968, only returning to near neutrality, and has not yet formed a clear strong trend. In other words, Xiaomi is transitioning from weakness to stability, but it hasn’t entered a strong breakout yet.

Among investor comments, bullish sentiment is starting to recover, with remarks like 'It's rising now,' 'Mysterious forces pushing up,' 'Go go go,' and 'New energy plus car manufacturing bringing a new future.' These comments reflect that the market still has story-driven expectations for Xiaomi, especially regarding new energy vehicles and car manufacturing as long-term sources of imagination. However, short-term trading can't rely solely on stories because the stock price hasn't broken through 31.143 yet. Without confirmation of a breakout, this round of rebound may just consolidate between 30 and 31.

Bearish comments focus on 'Tomorrow will crash,' 'Pump and dump,' and 'Not even entering at 30.' These views reflect investors' lack of confidence in Xiaomi after consecutive declines. Especially when every rebound fails to sustain, the market naturally suspects whether it’s just a pump and dump. This suspicion isn’t entirely without merit, but given the current trading volume accompanying the rebound, it’s premature to directly conclude it as a distribution phase. To confirm a weakening trend, the price needs to fall below 30.662 or even retest 29.373.

The most current comments reflect a wait-and-see attitude. Remarks like 'Buy at 27', 'Add positions but wait for 29', and 'Can it recover after several months of consecutive declines?' indicate that many investors are still waiting for lower levels rather than actively chasing the stock. This suggests that the market remains skeptical about Xiaomi Group's rebound. For those not holding the stock, entering at 30.820 offers only neutral upside potential; it would be more reasonable to wait for a breakout above 31.143 for confirmation or look for support near 30.662 or 29.373 before considering entry. For existing holders, 31.143 is the first observation level, with 31.527 and 32.913 being the extension targets for the rebound.

Overall, Xiaomi is not so weak that it cannot be considered, but it’s also not strong enough to chase. The short-term framework is very clear: breaking above 31.143 allows for targeting 31.527 and 32.913; failing to hold 31.143 indicates consolidation; breaking below 30.662 raises the risk of retesting 29.373. Xiaomi's new energy and car-making story can support long-term imagination, but to regain strength in the short term, confirmation through price action is still needed.

Xiaomi Group's core issue now is that while the market narrative remains intact, the stock price hasn't broken out yet. Bulls need to wait for 31.143, adding positions requires confirmed support, and chasing should not be based solely on a one-day volume rebound.

Key Deployment Levels: Breaking above 31.143 targets 31.527 and 32.913, holding above 30.662 allows for buying rebounds, while breaking below 29.373 suggests short-term weakness.

Strategy One | Chasing the rebound after breaking above 31.143

$UBXIAMI@EC2609E.C (28195.HK)$ | Strike Price 37.01 | Actual Leverage 6.8x | Closer to short-term upside target, suitable for capturing the first leg of rebound after a breakout

$BIXIAMI@EC2609F.C (26555.HK)$ | Strike Price 36.99 | Actual Leverage 7.1x | Higher leverage, suitable for quick trades after confirming a breakout $HSXIAMI@EC2609E.C (28627.HK)$ | Strike Price 37.01 | Actual Leverage 6.8x | Balanced reaction speed and risk, suitable for those who want to follow the upward move without being overly aggressive

Strategy Two | Buying dips while holding above 30.662

$UBXIAMI@EC2612A.C (13135.HK)$ ｜Strike price 37.15｜Actual leverage 5.1x｜Moderate leverage, suitable for accumulating near support levels in segments $BIXIAMI@EC2612A.C (13186.HK)$ ｜Strike price 37.15｜Actual leverage 5.3x｜More appropriate to follow once the stock price stabilizes; not advisable for blindly chasing highs $HSXIAMI@EC2612C.C (22791.HK)$ ｜Strike price 37.12｜Actual leverage 5.4x｜Suitable for re-deploying after consolidation with a more balanced approach

Strategy Three｜Breakdown below 29.373 indicates weakness, consider hedging

$UBXIAMI@EP2608A.P (26121.HK)$ ｜Strike price 28.16｜Actual leverage 6.0x｜Suitable for capturing sharp downward momentum after breaking through support $BIXIAMI@EP2608A.P (26045.HK)$ ｜Strike price 28.16｜Actual leverage 6.6x｜Higher leverage, suitable for quick hedging after short-term weakening $BPXIAMI@EP2609A.P (26247.HK)$ ｜Strike price 28.2｜Actual leverage 5.8x｜More appropriate to follow once the downtrend is confirmed, avoid entering prematurely

Reply to some investors' views:

@天才股神: Late-session rally helps sentiment, but the true key is whether it can reclaim and hold above 31.143.

@多多多: New energy and EV manufacturing are long-term stories, but short-term, the stock price needs to first regain 31.143.

@Rich Seed: 27 is a relatively low level; for now, focus on whether 29.373 holds before considering lower levels.

@30小米未輸過It is more prudent to wait for a pullback to 29 before adding more positions. If the price holds above 29.373 on a retracement, the risk-reward ratio will be better than entering at the current price.

@TokenomicTo reverse the downtrend, the first step is to break above 31.143, followed by targets at 31.527 and 32.913.

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Market data, opinions, and analyses contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met, and asset performance should be comprehensively evaluated in conjunction with other information. Trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$

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