Alibaba rebounds over 2% in the short term, can the technicals reverse the weakness?

$BABA-W (09988.HK)$ The current price at 129.200 is already below the 5-day line at 130.080, the 10-day line at 132.450, the 20-day line at 127.520, and the 30-day line at 127.990; short-term rebound momentum has weakened. The current price is also below the middle axis of the Bollinger Band at 127.520, indicating that the stock price has fallen back into a weak consolidation zone, with resistance now between 127.520 and 132.450.

Comments mainly focus on reasons for the decline, whether gaps will be filled, comparison with Tencent's performance, whether Jack Ma’s return is positive, and if support levels still hold. Overall sentiment is clearly pessimistic, with many investors disappointed by Alibaba’s continued drop, and some worrying about a potential market crash or seeing prices revisit 80.

Market sentiment remains weak, with noticeable panic and disappointment. Some comments are still observing whether there are large buy orders, but the prevailing mood centers around 'too weak to fall further,' 'lack of rebound power,' 'underperforming Tencent,' and 'insufficient support.' This reflects a lack of short-term confidence in the market, making it difficult to reverse the weak perception before re-breaking above 127.520.

Common concerns focus on three points: whether the gap near 125 will be filled; whether the current price has stabilized; and whether Jack Ma's return or large-scale buying can drive a rebound. Technically, after the current price fell below 127.520, the short-term priority is to reclaim 127.520 and 130.080 to confirm a rebound recovery.

Technically, 127.520 is the short-term watershed. If Alibaba can rise above 127.520 and 130.080 again, there may be an opportunity to test 132.450 in the short term; if it fails to reclaim these levels, it should still be viewed as a pullback consolidation. If it further breaks below 115.934, note the risk of testing the nearby low around 117.500. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 35.575, indicating weak momentum, with low odds for chasing upside gains.

Key deployment: A rebound can only be considered once 127.520 and 130.080 are reclaimed, aiming to test 132.450; if 115.934 is breached, beware of a potential drop towards the 117.500 low.

Strategy One | Rebound Deployment After Regaining 127.520

$UBALIBA@EC2607E.C (26541.HK)$ | Strike Price 137.09 | Actual Leverage 8.7x | Close to current price, suitable for capturing initial rebound after regaining the watershed

$CIALIBA@EC2607A.C (26695.HK)$ | Strike Price 137.08 | Actual Leverage 8.9x | Quick response, suitable for short-term funds betting on price recovery above 130

$BPALIBA@EC2607B.C (26774.HK)$ | Strike Price 137.00 | Actual Leverage 8.5x | Balanced option in the same range, suitable for following through after confirming a rebound

Strategy Two | Pursue 132.450 After Breaking Through 130.080

$UBALIBA@EC2608F.C (26538.HK)$ | Strike Price 150.09 | Actual Leverage 7.0x | Moderate out-of-the-money distance, suitable for pursuing short-term extension after breaking through 130 $CTALIBA@EC2608E.C (26573.HK)$ | Strike Price 150.00 | Actual Leverage 7.3x | Higher flexibility, suitable for capturing rapid gains after stock price strengthens $CIALIBA@EC2608C.C (26518.HK)$ | Strike price 150.08 | Actual leverage 7.1x | Similar terms, suitable for following the breakout trend with partial positions

Strategy 3 | A drop below 115.934 could lead to a pullback

$UBALIBA@EP2607B.P (24646.HK)$ | Strike price 122.78 | Actual leverage 5.6x | Close to the current price downside, suitable for capturing a continued decline after breaking support

$MSALIBA@EP2607A.P (24644.HK)$ | Strike price 122.78 | Actual leverage 5.8x | Higher leverage, suitable for use when short-term downward momentum accelerates $BPALIBA@EP2608A.P (24449.HK)$ | Strike price 122.88 | Actual leverage 5.6x | Terms are relatively close, suitable for defensive deployment after confirming a breakdown

Reply to some investors' views:

@定投The broader market is currently in a weaker position; if deploying in segments for the long term, be prepared for short-term volatility

@32165099Long-term holding can reduce the impact of short-term fluctuations, but short-term technical indicators remain weak

@新手的小人物The rebound lacks strength mainly because it remains below the resistance zone of 127.520 to 132.450

@signaSmall sell orders and large buy orders indicate signs of accumulation, but the stock price has not risen above 127.520 and 130.080, so a turnaround has not been confirmed

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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