April 24 [HKEX Podcast] Part-2-SMIC, Ganfeng Lithium, CATL

2. SMIC (00981.HK): A sudden surge of about 4 times the average volume, could this be overdoing it? Some investors mentioned establishing bearish warrants at HKD 65.

SMIC's closing price on April 24 was HKD 64.30, showing a clear short-term spike. After rebounding from the low of HKD 49.32, today’s large bullish candlestick broke through multiple moving averages and approached the upper Bollinger Band at HKD 63.91, indicating strong short-term inflows.

Technically, the April 24 closing price is now above the 5-day line at HKD 60.39, the 10-day line at HKD 59.57, the 20-day line at HKD 56.69, the 30-day line at HKD 57.83, and the 60-day line at HKD 63.60, shifting the trend from consolidation at lows to a strong rebound. However, the Relative Strength Index rose to 77.55, which is an overheated level, coupled with a significant increase in trading volume, posing a risk of overexertion in the short term.

Immediate support is seen at HKD 63.60, followed by HKD 60.39; resistance is first seen at HKD 67.81, then around HKD 63.91 to see if it can stabilize and extend further. The dividing line can be placed at HKD 63.60; holding above indicates strength remains, while falling below requires caution against profit-taking after a sharp rise.

Regarding investors’ question about whether the sudden surge in trading volume to about four times the average might indicate overexertion, the answer is that there is such a risk. Today’s big gain, sharp increase in trading volume, and overheated RSI suggest strong short-term momentum chasing, but also make high volatility likely.

As for investors who established bearish warrants at HKD 65, the key is whether the stock price can hold around HKD 63.60 to HKD 63.91. If the price rises above HKD 65 but fails to sustain, there may still be opportunities for bearish warrants to profit from a pullback; however, if the stock price stabilizes above HKD 65 and continues to test HKD 67.81, the risk for bearish warrants will significantly increase. $BI-SMIC@EC2609B.C (19343.HK)$$UB-SMIC@EC2610A.C (19562.HK)$$HS#SMIC RC2611C.C (57137.HK)$$SG#SMIC RC2611C.C (57077.HK)$

3. Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK): Investors believe it’s still in a rebound pattern, with stabilization occurring only above HKD 84.15. Some investors chose to take profits by exercising call warrants at a strike price of HKD 77.2.

Ganfeng Lithium’s closing price on April 24 was HKD 82.05, maintaining a short-term rebound structure. The share price has gradually recovered from the low of HKD 53.20, recently peaking at HKD 87.50 before pulling back to consolidate; today it rebounded again near HKD 82, showing continued buying interest at lower levels.

Technically, the April 24 closing price is above the 5-day line at HKD 79.30, the 10-day line at HKD 80.33, the 20-day line at HKD 76.75, the 30-day line at HKD 71.23, and the 60-day line at HKD 67.09, indicating overall strength. However, HKD 87.50 remains a significant resistance level, with the upper Bollinger Band at HKD 86.58, meaning further upside will enter a pressure zone. The RSI is approximately 60.70, showing improved momentum but not yet overheated.

Immediate support is seen at HKD 80.33, followed by HKD 79.30; resistance is first seen at HKD 84.15, followed by HKD 86.58 to HKD 87.50. The dividing line can be placed at HKD 80.33; holding above keeps the rebound scenario intact, while breaking below requires caution for a potential retreat to around HKD 79.30.

It is reasonable for investors to believe that the market is still in a rebound pattern, and at least a firm hold above 84.15 yuan is required to confirm stability. Although the closing price on April 24th rebounded, it has not truly broken through the overhead resistance. If it can stabilize above 84.15 yuan, there will be a greater chance to test the 86.58 yuan to 87.50 yuan range in the short term.

As for investors holding call warrants with a strike price of HKD 77.2 and choosing to take profits, the strategy reflects locking in gains after the rebound. Given that the stock price is approaching overhead resistance, taking profits on call warrants now helps reduce risks associated with high volatility. $UB#GANFERC2609C.C (56714.HK)$$BPGANFE@EC2607A.C (25346.HK)$$HSGANFE@EC2607A.C (25149.HK)$$HS#GANFERC2610B.C (57586.HK)$

4. CATL (03750.HK): Investors are asking if HKD 680 can hold. Some investors have taken the opportunity to go short, with a strike price of HKD 555.31.

CATL's closing price on April 24th was 695.00 yuan, and in the short term, it remains in a high-level consolidation phase. After a significant rebound from the low of 462.317 yuan, the stock previously reached a high of 745.00 yuan but then retreated below 700 yuan, indicating increasing overhead resistance.

Technically, the closing price on April 24th was below the 5-day moving average of 707.00 yuan but still above the 10-day line at 693.95 yuan, the 20-day line at 660.78 yuan, the 30-day line at 652.82 yuan, and the 60-day line at 573.46 yuan, meaning the overall uptrend has not been completely broken. The relative strength index is approximately 53.49, showing that momentum has pulled back from earlier highs, and the stock is entering a short-term consolidation phase.

Immediate support is seen at 693.95 yuan, followed by 680.00 yuan; resistance is first seen at 707.00 yuan, followed by the 739.54 yuan to 745.00 yuan range. The pivot point can be set at 693.95 yuan—holding above this level would indicate strong consolidation, while breaking below it would increase the likelihood of testing 680 yuan.

Regarding investors asking whether 680 yuan can hold, the immediate focus should be on whether 693.95 yuan can stabilize. If even the 10-day moving average is breached, 680 yuan will become the next critical line of defense. If 680 yuan holds, the short-term picture can still be viewed as consolidation after the rise; however, if it fails, downward pressure will intensify further.

As for investors going short with a strike price of HKD 555.31, the strategy bets on a continued decline from current highs. If the stock price falls below HKD 693.95 and moves towards HKD 680, the short position would be favorable; however, if the stock stabilizes again above HKD 707, the downside risk increases. $UB#CATL RP2812F.P (60356.HK)$

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Market data, opinions, and analyses contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any losses or damages caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only indicates whether certain technical conditions are met and should be used alongside other data for a comprehensive assessment of asset performance; trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny’s HK warrants for more professional insights. $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$$Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (800100.HK)$

219K Views