April 24 [HK Stocks Podcast] Part-1 - Hang Seng Index, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Tencent,

1. Hang Seng Index: Some investors believe the index will restart upwards towards 27,000 points. They indicated holding a bullish bet overnight with a stop-loss at 24,800 points. Bearish investors think it will pull back to 25,300 points and have chosen bearish warrants with a stop-loss at 26,800 points.

The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,978 points on April 24, remaining in a short-term consolidation pattern. The index rebounded from a low of 24,203 points and once rose above 26,000 points, but is currently constrained by several moving averages. The upper Bollinger Band at 26,764 points still poses significant resistance, indicating that upward momentum has not yet fully resumed.

Technically, the closing price on April 24 was slightly above the 20-day line at 25,678 points and the 30-day line at 25,620 points but below the 5-day line at 26,181 points, the 10-day line at 26,094 points, and the 60-day line at 26,125 points. This suggests that while the index has not weakened entirely, pressure remains in the range between 26,000 and 26,200 points. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 48.88, showing neutral momentum without clear one-sided breakout signals.

The first support level is at 25,678 points, followed by 24,593 points; the first resistance levels are at 26,094 to 26,181 points. If the index can stabilize above these levels, it has the potential to advance towards 26,764 points. The critical pivot point is at 25,678 points: holding above this level suggests ongoing consolidation, while a break below it warns of increasing downward pressure.

Bullish investors expecting the index to rebound to 27,000 points may consider holding bullish warrants with a stop-loss at 24,800 points overnight. However, they should note that the index has not yet broken through the resistance zone between 26,094 and 26,181 points. If the market stabilizes above the short-term moving averages, bullish strategies can continue; otherwise, breaking below 25,678 points increases overnight risk for bullish warrants.

Bearish investors expecting a pullback to 25,300 points may opt for bearish warrants with a stop-loss at 26,800 points, betting on resistance forming between 26,000 and 26,200 points. If the index fails to reclaim the short-term moving averages, a retreat to 25,300 points remains technically plausible. However, if the index breaks above 26,181 points and continues upward, risks for bearish positions will significantly increase. $BI#HSI RP2804W.P (65611.HK)$$UB-HSI @EP2607A.P (25463.HK)$$CT-HSI @EP2607A.P (26040.HK)$$BI#HSI RP28045.P (66209.HK)$

2. **Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347.HK)**: Investors are asking whether the stock will directly break through the resistance level at HKD 112. Some investors hold call warrants with an exercise price of HKD 116.9.

Hua Hong Semiconductor's closing price on April 24 was HKD 108.10, showing clear strengthening in the short term. After rebounding from the low of HKD 77.40, the stock surged recently and broke through multiple moving averages, including the 5-day MA at HKD 98.30, 10-day MA at HKD 94.34, 20-day MA at HKD 89.70, 30-day MA at HKD 89.91, and 60-day MA at HKD 95.22, reflecting significant inflows of short-term capital.

However, the closing price on April 24 approached the short-term high of HKD 112.10 and exceeded the upper Bollinger Band at HKD 103.64, indicating strong upward momentum but also potential overbought conditions and volatility risks. The Relative Strength Index rose to 75.96, signaling robust momentum but nearing overbought territory.

The first support level is at HKD 103.64, followed by HKD 98.30; the first resistance level is at HKD 112.10. The critical pivot point is at HKD 103.64: maintaining above this level supports continued short-term strength, but falling below it warns of potential easing in upward momentum.

Regarding the question of whether the stock will directly break through the resistance level at HKD 112, the key now lies in whether it can effectively rise above and stabilize above HKD 112.10. If supported by volume after breaking through, the uptrend could extend further in the short term. However, since the closing price on April 24 was already above the upper Bollinger Band, failure to stabilize above HKD 112.10 could lead to initial consolidation around the highs.

For investors holding call warrants with an exercise price of HKD 116.9, attention should be paid to whether the stock can break above HKD 112.10 and continue rising. A successful breakout would enhance warrant performance; however, if the stock meets resistance near HKD 112, short-term volatility risks for the corresponding warrants will increase. $BI#HUAHORC2612F.C (56471.HK)$$GJHUAHO@EC2606A.C (24314.HK)$$BIHUAHO@EC2607B.C (24178.HK)$

3. **Tencent (00700.HK)**: Investors noted that the stock has fallen for three consecutive days and asked whether it might rebound to HKD 540 next week. Some investors deployed bullish warrants during the closing session.

Tencent closed at HKD 493.40 on April 24, with a weak short-term trend. After consecutive declines, the stock price has broken below several short-term moving averages and is currently below the 5-day line at HKD 506.82, the 10-day line at HKD 504.38, the 20-day line at HKD 500.54, and the 30-day line at HKD 511.64, reflecting insufficient rebound momentum. The range between HKD 500 and HKD 511 has become a short-term resistance zone.

Technically, the closing price on April 24 was close to the lower Bollinger Band at HKD 478.34, while the midline above is at HKD 500.54. If it fails to regain the level of HKD 500.54, the short-term trend will remain in consolidation at lower levels. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 37.20, showing weak momentum but not reaching extreme oversold conditions.

Immediate support is seen at HKD 487.00, followed by HKD 478.34; resistance is first noted at HKD 500.54, then in the range of HKD 506.82 to HKD 511.64. A key turning point can be set at HKD 500.54, where surpassing it would indicate preliminary improvement.

For investors asking whether there is a chance for a rebound to HKD 540 after three consecutive days of decline, the immediate focus should be on whether it can reclaim HKD 500.54 and HKD 506.82. Without breaking through this resistance zone, conditions for a direct rebound to HKD 540 are insufficient. Only if the stock can stabilize above the short-term moving averages does it stand a chance to gradually repair its trend.

As for investors deploying bullish warrants during the closing session, the strategy represents a bet on a rebound from lower levels. If the stock price holds near HKD 487, there remains a short-term opportunity for a rebound; however, if it breaks below HKD 487 and approaches the lower Bollinger Band at HKD 478.34, the risk for bullish warrants will significantly increase. $BITENCT@EP2606A.P (23122.HK)$$UB#TENCTRP2812S.P (61361.HK)$$UB#TENCTRP2812T.P (62051.HK)$$SGTENCT@EP2606A.P (21910.HK)$

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should combine other data and should not solely rely on this article to make trading decisions. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis.

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