Xiaomi is oscillating around the 31 yuan mark; as long as the short-term trend hasn't strengthened, it still needs to hold above 30.84 first

$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ It has been consolidating repeatedly near the 31 yuan level recently. During today’s trading session, it once fell to 30.8 yuan, breaking below the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages, while also nearing the lower side of the Bollinger Bands' middle axis, reflecting that the short-term trend remains weak without clear signs of strengthening. Market chatter reflects noticeable divergence: some view this as a normal pullback or even an opportunity to redeploy, while others worry that the downtrend isn’t over, with some investors predicting a drop below 30 yuan in the short term, showing overall confidence remains weak.

Overall market sentiment leans cautious, mixed with both medium-to-long-term optimism and short-term bearishness. More optimistic voices focus on fundamentals, the auto business, smart driving, large models, and whether the company's long-term valuation is undervalued; more pessimistic voices concentrate on daily share price declines, increased short-selling pressure, insufficient trading volume, and the short-term trend not yet reversing. Common concerns mainly revolve around three issues: first, whether the support level at 30.840 can hold; second, whether it’s worth entering near the current price; third, why despite decent news flow, the stock price fails to rise.

From a technical perspective, 30.840 is currently the most important short-term inflection point. As long as it holds above this level, the stock price can still be viewed as being in a consolidation pattern around 31 yuan. If it can break through 31.800 and 31.845 again, there may be a chance for a short-term test of 33.283. However, the relative strength index (RSI) is only at 38.309, indicating weak short-term momentum, and the current price is below the Bollinger Bands' middle axis of 31.845, which shows selling pressure above remains present. Therefore, at this stage, the risk-reward ratio is considered neutral to slightly low. Although the stock price is nearing the support zone at 30.840, further downside may be limited, but before it firmly stabilizes above 31.800, it should still be viewed as a weak consolidation. If 30.840 is breached, one must watch out for a further test of support at 30.407.

Key deployment points: 30.840 is the short-term inflection point; if it holds firm, consider deploying based on a technical rebound. If it can break through 31.800 and 31.845 again, there may be a chance for a short-term test of 33.283; if 30.840 breaks down, then watch for a test of support at 30.407.

Strategy One | Holding above 30.840 to bet on a rebound

$UBXIAMI@EC2712A.C (25395.HK)$ ｜Strike Price 35.9｜Actual Leverage 2.9x｜Longer-term expiration, slower time decay pressure, suitable for waiting for the stock price to stabilize before gradual deployment

$HSXIAMI@EC2612C.C (22791.HK)$ ｜Strike Price 37.12｜Actual Leverage 5.3x｜Slightly out-of-the-money, balanced flexibility and stability, suitable for betting on a rebound to fill upward resistance

$CTXIAMI@EC2612A.C (13147.HK)$ ｜Strike Price 37.15｜Actual Leverage 5.1x｜Leverage is not overly aggressive, suitable for deploying the first leg of a rebound after supporting levels hold

Strategy Two｜Break through 31.800 and 31.845 to chase momentum

$UBXIAMI@EC2609E.C (28195.HK)$ ｜Strike Price 37.01｜Actual Leverage 6.6x｜Quick response after a breakout, suitable for short-term trading in the direction of the trend to capture acceleration

$HUXIAMI@EC2610A.C (28250.HK)$ ｜Strike Price 38.9｜Actual Leverage 6.5x｜More aggressive, suitable for betting on continuation of an uptrend after confirmation of a breakout

$BPXIAMI@EC2610E.C (28185.HK)$ ｜Strike Price 38.9｜Actual Leverage 6.4x｜Also a high-elasticity tool, suitable for advancing above 33 after confirming a breakout

Strategy Three｜If 30.840 support breaks, reverse to a bearish view

$UBXIAMI@EP2606C.P (23000.HK)$ ｜Strike Price 32.16｜Actual Leverage 6.2x｜Close to current price, direct reaction after breaking the watershed, suitable for capturing the initial weakening phase

$HSXIAMI@EP2607A.P (23111.HK)$ ｜Strike Price 29.86｜Actual Leverage 6.6x｜Slightly out-of-the-money, suitable for use if expecting a continued downtrend towards 30

$UBXIAMI@EP2608A.P (26121.HK)$｜Strike price 28.16｜Actual leverage 6.0x｜Further out, suitable for deployment if the stock price breaks down and the decline expands.

Reply to some investors' views:

@SigmaIf there is news catalyst tomorrow morning, there might be an opportunity for short-term volatility, but technically the most important thing is still to hold above 30.840 first; otherwise, the trend will remain weak.

@@To be 月球人The 30-dollar level is indeed a position of significant market attention, but technically, the more critical level is 30.840. If it breaks below that, expectations of falling below 30 dollars will increase.

@30743661The short-term technical outlook is indeed bearish as multiple short-term moving averages have been breached, and caution is warranted until the price moves back above 31.800.

@我爱四果汤An increase in short-selling pressure can indeed add to short-term downward pressure, so even if near a support level at this stage, it’s too early to assume the decline has stopped.

@独赢好时光The stock price has indeed returned to the edge of 30 dollars, indicating that the area between 30.840 and 30 dollars remains the most important short-term support zone.

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Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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