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港股窩輪Jenny
wrote a column · Apr 24 09:49

April 23rd [Hong Kong Stock Podcast] Part-1 - Hang Seng Index, Yanzhou Coal Energy, Hong Kong Exchange,

April 23rd [Hong Kong Stock Podcast] Part-1 - Hang Seng Index, Yanzhou Coal Energy, Hong Kong Exchange,
1. Hang Seng Index: Bullish investors believe that funds are flowing in and there is still an opportunity to reach 26,500 points; they hold bull certificates with a stop-loss level at 25,778 points. Bearish investors think that 26,000 points will act as resistance, leading the index to fall back and fill the gap at 25,200 points; they hold bear certificates with a stop-loss level at 26,500 points.
The Hang Seng Index is currently at 25,915 points, with the short-term trend still in a consolidation phase after a rebound. The index previously rose from a low of 24,203 points and gradually recovered lost ground, but it is now clearly encountering resistance near 26,000 points, failing multiple times to break through effectively, indicating that selling pressure above remains significant.
From a technical perspective, the index is currently trading near the 10-day and 20-day moving averages, with short-term averages beginning to converge, signaling unclear direction. The middle line of the Bollinger Bands is around 25,632 points, with the current price close to the middle line, reflecting a typical sideways pattern. The upper band is near 26,740 points, while the lower band is around 24,524 points, indicating that the index is still fluctuating within a range. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at approximately 46, suggesting neutral momentum without a clear directional bias.
The short-term key pivot point is near 25,772 points. If the index can stabilize and break through 26,000 points again, there may be an opportunity to challenge 26,500 points. However, if it fails to hold above 25,772 points, downside risks need to be monitored, potentially testing the gap area at 25,200 points.
Some investors believe that funds are flowing in and expect the index to test 26,500 points again, holding bullish warrants with a stop-loss level at 25,778 points. Technically speaking, as long as the index can stabilize above the pivot point and break through the 26,000-point resistance, this type of positioning has room to continue, provided that the stop-loss level is not breached.
On the other hand, some bearish investors see significant resistance at 26,000 points and anticipate the index will retreat to fill the gap at 25,200 points, holding bearish warrants with a stop-loss level at 26,500 points. Technically, 26,000 points indeed represent a key short-term resistance area, and before breaking through, a pullback for consolidation would be a reasonable move. However, if the index manages to break through 26,000 points effectively and stabilizes, related short positions may face forced exit risks.
Overall, the index remains in a tug-of-war range between the resistance at 26,000 points and support at 25,700 points. The focus of the short-term strategy is to wait for confirmation of direction before following through with deployments based on a breakout or breakdown. $BI#HSI RP2803D.P (59692.HK)$$BI#HSI RP2803C.P (61379.HK)$
April 23rd [Hong Kong Stock Podcast] Part-1 - Hang Seng Index, Yanzhou Coal Energy, Hong Kong Exchange, 1. Hang Seng Index: Bullish investors believe that funds are flowing in and there is still an opportunity to reach 26,500 points; they hold bull certificates with a stop-loss level at 25,778 points. Bearish investors think that 26,000 points will act as resistance, leading the index to fall back and fill the gap at 25,200 points; they hold bear certificates with a stop-loss level at 26,500 points. The Hang Seng Index is currently at 25,915 points, with its short-term trend remaining in the consolidation phase after rebounding. The index previously recovered from the low of 24,203 points, gradually regaining lost ground, but it now clearly faces resistance around the 26,000-point mark, failing multiple times to break through effectively, reflecting persistent selling pressure above. From a technical perspective, the index is currently trading near the 10-day and 20-day moving averages, with short-term moving averages beginning to converge, indicating unclear direction. The middle band of the Bollinger Bands is around 25,632 points, with the current price close to the middle band, representing a typical sideways pattern. The upper band is approximately at 26,740 points, while the lower band is around 24,524 points, showing that the index remains within range-bound fluctuations at this stage. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at about 46, suggesting neutral momentum without a clear directional bias. The key short-term inflection point is near 25,772 points. If the index can stabilize and re-break above 26,000 points, there may be an opportunity to challenge 26,500 points again. However, if 25,772 points are breached, downside risks should be noted, potentially testing the gap area at 25,200 points again. Some investors believe that funds are flowing in and expect the index to...
2. Yanzhou Energy (01171.HK): Investors ask when it will reach HKD 20?
Yanzhou Energy's current price is HKD 15.24. While the short-term trend has stabilized, there is still a noticeable gap from reaching HKD 20, so expecting a direct rise to that level at this stage is not feasible.
From the daily chart perspective, the stock price has gradually recovered from its recent lows and is currently trading above the 5-day moving average at HKD 14.57, the 10-day moving average at HKD 14.57, the 20-day moving average at HKD 14.82, and the 60-day moving average at HKD 14.06, reflecting improved short-term sentiment. However, the price has just returned to the vicinity of the 30-day moving average at HKD 15.24, with immediate resistance seen at HKD 15.35, indicating that it is still in the phase of repairing and attempting to break out, not yet fully turning strong.
The middle line of the Bollinger Bands is at HKD 14.82, and the current price has moved back above the middle line, showing a more stable trend compared to earlier. However, the upper band at HKD 16.23 remains the next important resistance zone. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has improved, indicating better momentum, but there are no strong acceleration signals yet. Therefore, while there may be opportunities for further upside in the short term, it’s crucial to first observe whether the price can gradually break through the resistance levels above.
If the stock price can stabilize above 15.24 to 15.35 yuan, the next target could be 16.23 yuan; if it breaks through further, then it has the potential to challenge the previous high near 17.42 yuan. In other words, technically speaking, a more reasonable view at this stage is not to directly ask when it will reach 20 yuan, but to first see whether it can progressively break through key levels such as 15.35 yuan, 16.23 yuan, and 17.42 yuan. Until these resistances are broken, 20 yuan remains a longer-term target. $BPYKENR@EC2608A.C (21298.HK)$$HSYKENR@EC2607A.C (24441.HK)$
April 23rd [Hong Kong Stock Podcast] Part-1 - Hang Seng Index, Yanzhou Coal Energy, Hong Kong Exchange, 1. Hang Seng Index: Bullish investors believe that funds are flowing in and there is still an opportunity to reach 26,500 points; they hold bull certificates with a stop-loss level at 25,778 points. Bearish investors think that 26,000 points will act as resistance, leading the index to fall back and fill the gap at 25,200 points; they hold bear certificates with a stop-loss level at 26,500 points. The Hang Seng Index is currently at 25,915 points, with its short-term trend remaining in the consolidation phase after rebounding. The index previously recovered from the low of 24,203 points, gradually regaining lost ground, but it now clearly faces resistance around the 26,000-point mark, failing multiple times to break through effectively, reflecting persistent selling pressure above. From a technical perspective, the index is currently trading near the 10-day and 20-day moving averages, with short-term moving averages beginning to converge, indicating unclear direction. The middle band of the Bollinger Bands is around 25,632 points, with the current price close to the middle band, representing a typical sideways pattern. The upper band is approximately at 26,740 points, while the lower band is around 24,524 points, showing that the index remains within range-bound fluctuations at this stage. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at about 46, suggesting neutral momentum without a clear directional bias. The key short-term inflection point is near 25,772 points. If the index can stabilize and re-break above 26,000 points, there may be an opportunity to challenge 26,500 points again. However, if 25,772 points are breached, downside risks should be noted, potentially testing the gap area at 25,200 points again. Some investors believe that funds are flowing in and expect the index to...
3. Hong Kong Exchange (00388.HK): Investors mentioned that there is still a gap at 390 yuan that has not been filled, and they are deploying put warrants with an exercise price of 388.68 yuan.
The current price of Hong Kong Exchange is 412.20 yuan, and the short-term trend remains relatively stable. After rebounding from the low of 379 yuan, the share price has continued to rise, recently moving above several medium- and short-term moving averages, indicating overall improvement in structure. However, the current price is approaching the short-term peak near 416 yuan, where upper resistance begins to appear, and further upward movement in the short term is still somewhat limited.
From a technical perspective, the stock price is currently around the 5-day line at 413.24 yuan, also holding steady above the 10-day line at 411.28 yuan, the 20-day line at 403.57 yuan, the 30-day line at 403.04 yuan, and the 60-day line at 407.06 yuan, showing recovery in the medium- and short-term trends. The middle axis of the Bollinger Bands is at 403.57 yuan, and the current price is still above the middle axis, indicating that there is still some support in the short term. However, the upper band is at 423.98 yuan, meaning that if the price rises further, the next significant resistance zone will be between 423 yuan and 424 yuan.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at approximately 54, reflecting that short-term momentum remains stable but not extremely strong. In other words, the current trend indicates a continuation of stability following the rebound, rather than a one-sided sharp rise, and no clear signs of weakness have emerged yet. In the short term, the stock is more likely to consolidate near the highs.
Some investors mentioned that there is still an unfilled gap at 390 yuan and are deploying put warrants with an exercise price of 388.68 yuan. From the chart, after previously hitting a low of 379 yuan, the stock price has gradually recovered and is now clearly back above 400 yuan. If the market loses support in the range of 408 yuan to 403 yuan, downward pressure would increase again, and the market might then reconsider the possibility of testing lower levels. However, before losing support in this area, the current trend should still be viewed as a post-rebound consolidation with a bias toward stability, without any clear indication of entering a downtrend structure. $JP#HKEX RP2812B.P (57489.HK)$$BI-HKEX@EP2606A.P (21944.HK)$$UB#HKEX RP2812C.P (55624.HK)$
April 23rd [Hong Kong Stock Podcast] Part-1 - Hang Seng Index, Yanzhou Coal Energy, Hong Kong Exchange, 1. Hang Seng Index: Bullish investors believe that funds are flowing in and there is still an opportunity to reach 26,500 points; they hold bull certificates with a stop-loss level at 25,778 points. Bearish investors think that 26,000 points will act as resistance, leading the index to fall back and fill the gap at 25,200 points; they hold bear certificates with a stop-loss level at 26,500 points. The Hang Seng Index is currently at 25,915 points, with its short-term trend remaining in the consolidation phase after rebounding. The index previously recovered from the low of 24,203 points, gradually regaining lost ground, but it now clearly faces resistance around the 26,000-point mark, failing multiple times to break through effectively, reflecting persistent selling pressure above. From a technical perspective, the index is currently trading near the 10-day and 20-day moving averages, with short-term moving averages beginning to converge, indicating unclear direction. The middle band of the Bollinger Bands is around 25,632 points, with the current price close to the middle band, representing a typical sideways pattern. The upper band is approximately at 26,740 points, while the lower band is around 24,524 points, showing that the index remains within range-bound fluctuations at this stage. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at about 46, suggesting neutral momentum without a clear directional bias. The key short-term inflection point is near 25,772 points. If the index can stabilize and re-break above 26,000 points, there may be an opportunity to challenge 26,500 points again. However, if 25,772 points are breached, downside risks should be noted, potentially testing the gap area at 25,200 points again. Some investors believe that funds are flowing in and expect the index to...
Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should combine other data and should not solely rely on this article to make trading decisions. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis.
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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