Pop Mart rebounds from a low position but faces renewed tug-of-war; 164 yuan becomes the key to short-term strength

$POP MART (09992.HK)$Currently trading at 155.7 yuan, the stock has fallen below the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages. The market is significantly divided on its trend, with bulls and bears locked in a tug-of-war within the 150-160 yuan range.

On one side, some investors believe that after a significant correction, the valuation is starting to look attractive, and they are beginning to anticipate positive news from earnings reports or product line expansions driving the stock price higher, with some even eyeing 168 yuan or higher levels. On the other side, more conservative views persist, suggesting foreign capital short-selling pressure remains, the stock's performance hasn't been strong enough, and there are concerns it could break below 150 yuan again, potentially heading towards 120 yuan. This division reflects that the market has yet to form a consensus direction for this stock, with funds still on the sidelines.

Technically, 158.085 is the most critical short-term watershed. If the price can hold above it and further break through 164.000, there may be an opportunity to test 176.820 in the short term. However, if it fails to hold 158.085, the stock may retest 152.734, and further support could be found around 140.100. The relative strength index stands at 48.303, indicating average short-term momentum.

At this stage, Pop Mart is more suitable for viewing as a consolidation after a low-level rebound. If 164.000 can be broken through, the market's expectation for a continued rebound will increase; however, if 158.085 is breached, it would indicate that the strength of this recovery remains limited, and overall, it should still be regarded as a seesaw battle.

Key deployment: If 158.085 yuan holds steady, one can first deploy based on the idea of consolidation after a rebound. If it further breaks through 164.000 yuan, there may be a short-term opportunity to retest 176.820 yuan; if 158.085 yuan is breached, one should watch out for a retreat to test 152.734 yuan, with further support seen near 140.100 yuan.

Strategy One | Stabilization Deployment above 158.085 Yuan

$UBPOMRT@EC2711A.C (27929.HK)$ | Strike price 180.1 yuan | Actual leverage 1.8x | Lower leverage, more suitable for gradual follow-up after stabilization, focusing on waiting for the trend to shift from consolidation back to stability

$GJPOMRT@EC2610B.C (27787.HK)$ | Strike price 193 yuan | Actual leverage 4.4x | Medium-distance offensive type, suitable for phased deployment after holding the support level, betting on the continuation of the rebound

$BPPOMRT@EC2610C.C (27978.HK)$ | Strike price 193.1 yuan | Actual leverage 4.5x | Slightly higher flexibility, suitable for use when optimistic about the stock price gradually pushing towards the resistance level at 164 yuan

Strategy Two | Momentum Entry upon Breaking through 164.000 Yuan

$UBPOMRT@EC2609C.C (27773.HK)$ | Strike price 186.88 yuan | Actual leverage 4.1x | Suitable for following up after confirmation of a breakout, balanced rhythm, no need to rush in too early

$HUPOMRT@EC2609B.C (28008.HK)$ | Strike price 190.02 yuan | Actual leverage 5.0x | Higher leverage, suitable for quick action during the acceleration phase after a breakout, capturing short-term upward momentum

$CTPOMRT@EC2609C.C (27704.HK)$ | Strike price 202 yuan | Actual leverage 4.6x | A longer-range momentum-following tool, suitable for those optimistic that after breaking through, the target won’t just be 164 yuan but instead moving toward 176.820 yuan

Strategy Three | Defense Deployment if 158.085 yuan is Breached

$UBPOMRT@EP2607A.P (22558.HK)$ | Strike Price 162.82 yuan | Actual Leverage 3.9x | Close to current price; reaction after breach will be more direct, suitable for short-term defense or reversal deployment

$UBPOMRT@EP2607B.P (23059.HK)$ | Strike Price 169.892 yuan | Actual Leverage 3.5x | A more stable defensive choice, suitable when expecting the stock price to retest 152.734 yuan

$UBPOMRT@EP2609A.P (25399.HK)$ | Strike Price 179.9 yuan | Actual Leverage 2.6x | Lower leverage, more suitable for bearish outlook but unwilling to endure large fluctuations, as a defensive position allocation

Reply to some investors' views:

@想上岸的鱼1If major institutions continue to sell heavily in the short term, this will naturally limit the strength of a rebound; thus, caution should be maintained until 164.000 is breached.

@17627678Aiming at 140 as a target is a relatively bearish strategy; technically, although it hasn't turned strong yet, it hasn't broken below 152.734 either, so the bearish trend hasn't completely taken over.

@231874206If funds shift to other stocks, it indeed reflects insufficient short-term confidence in Pop Mart; however, the current price is still within the consolidation zone and hasn't completely turned bearish.

@青龙瑞气If there really is market support, the most straightforward sign would be whether the stock price can stabilize above 158.085, or even gradually challenge 164.000.

@@Water pleaseWhile a rebound has occurred since the low of 140.100, confirming that a major bottom has formed still requires subsequent breakout confirmation.

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Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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