The CPU giant is on a wild ride, is it still possible to position now?
🎁Intel's Q1 report card is coming soon! Beneath the dazzling narrative of AI foundry, how will the market score it?
After-hours on April 23 Eastern Time (April 24 Beijing Time), $Intel (INTC.US)$will announce its Q1 2026 earnings.
Market consensus shows that Intel's Q1 revenue is approximately $12.4 billion, a slight year-on-year decrease of about 2%; net profit is expected to post a loss of $861 million, still showing weakness compared to the same period last year.
![After-hours on April 23 Eastern Time (April 24 Beijing Time), $Intel (INTC.US)$will announce its Q1 2026 earnings.[Clap] Market consensus shows that Intel's Q1 revenue is approximately $12.4 billion, a slight year-on-year decrease of about 2%; net profit is expected to post a loss of $861 million, still showing weakness compared to the same period last year. Looking back at the previous quarter, Intel had just turned losses into profits.Data center and foundry businesses have achieved growth riding on the AI trend, but the client computing business (CCG), which has a higher proportion, remains sluggish.Management also admitted that due to supply chain constraints, this quarter’s results still face pressure, but they remain optimistic about the long-term prospects of CPU chips.[Sob] [Brave]However, in sharp contrast to the conservative guidance from last quarter, its recent stock price performance has been:Over the past month $Intel (INTC.US)$ The stock price surged over 50%, and has skyrocketed nearly 80% year-to-date. Last Friday (April 17), its share price reached a high of $70.325, with a market cap of $352.5 billion, surpassing pre-pandemic highs and hitting a historical peak since the 2000 dot-com bubble; this week, the stock price slightly fell, giving up some gains, with the latest market cap dropping to $332.2 billion.After the sharp rise in share price, can this quarter's results meet the market’s high expectations and continue the momentum to reach new highs?👇👇 [Tongue]The following three key factors will directly determine the final outcome of this earnings report: ❖ Key Factor One: The supply and demand dynamics for server CPUs AI ...](https://nnqimage.futunn.com/sns_client_feed/999982/20260422/web-1776827175559-0i0NrXOHvh.webp/big?area=2&is_public=true&imageMogr2/ignore-error/1/format/webp)
Looking back at the previous quarter, Intel had just turned losses into profits.Data center and foundry businesses have achieved growth riding on the AI trend, but the client computing business (CCG), which has a higher proportion, remains sluggish.Management also admitted that due to supply chain constraints, this quarter’s results still face pressure, but they remain optimistic about the long-term prospects of CPU chips.
However, in sharp contrast to the conservative guidance from last quarter, its recent stock price performance has been:Over the past month $Intel (INTC.US)$ The stock price surged over 50%, and has skyrocketed nearly 80% year-to-date.Last Friday (April 17), its share price reached a high of $70.325, with a market cap of $352.5 billion, surpassing pre-pandemic highs and hitting a historical peak since the 2000 dot-com bubble; this week, the stock price slightly fell, giving up some gains, with the latest market cap dropping to $332.2 billion.After the sharp rise in share price, can this quarter's results meet the market’s high expectations and continue the momentum to reach new highs?👇👇
The following three key factors will directly determine the final outcome of this earnings report:❖ Key Factor One: The supply and demand dynamics for server CPUs
The AI boom is driving explosive demand for CPUs. Analysts point out that the ratio of data center CPUs to GPUs is evolving from the current range of 1:4 to 1:8 towards 1:1 to 1:2, with the market size potentially growing from $25 billion in 2026 to $60 billion or even $100 billion by 2030.
However, the supply side remains tight: Intel's delivery cycle to China has extended to six months, with price increases exceeding 10%. The company expects Q1 to be the peak of supply bottlenecks, with relief starting in Q2. However, memory shortages are weighing on the PC side, and CCG revenue may drop by more than 13% quarter-over-quarter.
>> Market Focus: Whether the growth and scale of the data center business can fully offset the decline in the PC business and drive overall revenue upward.
❖ Key Point Two: Gross margin performance after 18A mass production
If CPU supply and demand determine 'how much can be sold,' then the mass production pace of the 18A process directly addresses a more fundamental question: How much can Intel earn for every chip sold?
Currently, 18A has entered the high-volume production stage, with yields maintained above 60% and improving at a rate of 7-8 percentage points per month. While this performance lags behind Taiwan Semiconductor, it is better than Samsung's SF2. The first consumer product, Panther Lake, debuted at CES, with total computing power reaching 180 TOPS.
The CFO has clearly stated that the current yield supports shipments but cannot yet sustain normal profit margins. Target costs are expected to be achieved by the end of 2026, aligning with industry averages in 2027.
>> Therefore, whether the gross margin can return to a healthy level after 18A mass production is a core indicator of whether Intel can truly return to a profitable track.
❖ Key Point Three: Progress in securing orders for foundry services
Foundry services represent the most imaginative chapter in Intel's transformation story. A UBS report noted that the company is at a critical stage of securing multiple important contracts, with the release of version 1.0 of the 14A process design kit being an important milestone.
Amazon has signed a multi-year, multi-billion-dollar custom chip agreement with Intel, using the 18A process to produce AI fabric chips, marking the most significant external order for the foundry business to date. Additionally, Apple is evaluating moving some M-series chips to the 18A-P node (target 2027), while Google is considering adopting EMIB and Foveros advanced packaging technologies. More symbolically, Musk’s Terafab superchip project: Intel announced its participation on April 7, with a pilot phase investment of approximately $20–25 billion, aiming for an annual production target of one terawatt of computing power.
>> If a new substantial foundry order announcement is made during this earnings call, the valuation approach for the foundry business will shift from expectation-driven to order-validated.Conversely, if there continues to be ambiguity, overly high expectations will face a pullback.
![After-hours on April 23 Eastern Time (April 24 Beijing Time), $Intel (INTC.US)$will announce its Q1 2026 earnings.[Clap] Market consensus shows that Intel's Q1 revenue is approximately $12.4 billion, a slight year-on-year decrease of about 2%; net profit is expected to post a loss of $861 million, still showing weakness compared to the same period last year. Looking back at the previous quarter, Intel had just turned losses into profits.Data center and foundry businesses have achieved growth riding on the AI trend, but the client computing business (CCG), which has a higher proportion, remains sluggish.Management also admitted that due to supply chain constraints, this quarter’s results still face pressure, but they remain optimistic about the long-term prospects of CPU chips.[Sob] [Brave]However, in sharp contrast to the conservative guidance from last quarter, its recent stock price performance has been:Over the past month $Intel (INTC.US)$ The stock price surged over 50%, and has skyrocketed nearly 80% year-to-date. Last Friday (April 17), its share price reached a high of $70.325, with a market cap of $352.5 billion, surpassing pre-pandemic highs and hitting a historical peak since the 2000 dot-com bubble; this week, the stock price slightly fell, giving up some gains, with the latest market cap dropping to $332.2 billion.After the sharp rise in share price, can this quarter's results meet the market’s high expectations and continue the momentum to reach new highs?👇👇 [Tongue]The following three key factors will directly determine the final outcome of this earnings report: ❖ Key Factor One: The supply and demand dynamics for server CPUs AI ...](https://nnqimage.futunn.com/sns_client_feed/999982/20260422/web-1776829583762-CMFCyWYjqJ.png/big?area=2&is_public=true&imageMogr2/ignore-error/1/format/webp)
From near bankruptcy to a resurgence in market cap, from fierce competition in chip foundry orders to the wave of server CPU price hikes, Intel's recovery momentum is highly anticipated. Overall, the stock has surged 50% within the month.，Market sentiment has already been bullish; and the pullback on the eve of earnings also reflects market divergence.Will this report finally solidify the recovery expectations or lead to a temporary pause in the upward trend?Participate in the poll now, share your judgment, and witness together whether Intel can achieve another breakthrough! Fellow investors with correct predictions will split 10,000 points!Note: 'Continued rise, pullback' will be based on the closing price change of the first trading day post-earnings compared to the closing price the day before the earnings.
Share your thoughts in the comment section—write over 30 words and provide a well-reasoned argument to earn 66 points!💡 Are you currently holding cash and waiting, or holding shares and waiting?
💡 What is the biggest obstacle for Intel to return to its peak?
Note: The event will end at 4:00 AM Beijing Time on April 24; rewards are stackable and will be distributed uniformly after this earnings season concludes.
Intel's earnings release is coming up—how to deploy options easily? 'Earnings Express' AI analyzes the key points, guiding you through a three-step options strategy >>
![After-hours on April 23 Eastern Time (April 24 Beijing Time), $Intel (INTC.US)$will announce its Q1 2026 earnings.[Clap] Market consensus shows that Intel's Q1 revenue is approximately $12.4 billion, a slight year-on-year decrease of about 2%; net profit is expected to post a loss of $861 million, still showing weakness compared to the same period last year. Looking back at the previous quarter, Intel had just turned losses into profits.Data center and foundry businesses have achieved growth riding on the AI trend, but the client computing business (CCG), which has a higher proportion, remains sluggish.Management also admitted that due to supply chain constraints, this quarter’s results still face pressure, but they remain optimistic about the long-term prospects of CPU chips.[Sob] [Brave]However, in sharp contrast to the conservative guidance from last quarter, its recent stock price performance has been:Over the past month $Intel (INTC.US)$ The stock price surged over 50%, and has skyrocketed nearly 80% year-to-date. Last Friday (April 17), its share price reached a high of $70.325, with a market cap of $352.5 billion, surpassing pre-pandemic highs and hitting a historical peak since the 2000 dot-com bubble; this week, the stock price slightly fell, giving up some gains, with the latest market cap dropping to $332.2 billion.After the sharp rise in share price, can this quarter's results meet the market’s high expectations and continue the momentum to reach new highs?👇👇 [Tongue]The following three key factors will directly determine the final outcome of this earnings report: ❖ Key Factor One: The supply and demand dynamics for server CPUs AI ...](https://nnqimage.futunn.com/sns_client_feed/999982/20260422/web-1776827314497-8i50LEBjeK.webp/big?area=2&is_public=true&imageMogr2/ignore-error/1/format/webp)
![After-hours on April 23 Eastern Time (April 24 Beijing Time), $Intel (INTC.US)$will announce its Q1 2026 earnings.[Clap] Market consensus shows that Intel's Q1 revenue is approximately $12.4 billion, a slight year-on-year decrease of about 2%; net profit is expected to post a loss of $861 million, still showing weakness compared to the same period last year. Looking back at the previous quarter, Intel had just turned losses into profits.Data center and foundry businesses have achieved growth riding on the AI trend, but the client computing business (CCG), which has a higher proportion, remains sluggish.Management also admitted that due to supply chain constraints, this quarter’s results still face pressure, but they remain optimistic about the long-term prospects of CPU chips.[Sob] [Brave]However, in sharp contrast to the conservative guidance from last quarter, its recent stock price performance has been:Over the past month $Intel (INTC.US)$ The stock price surged over 50%, and has skyrocketed nearly 80% year-to-date. Last Friday (April 17), its share price reached a high of $70.325, with a market cap of $352.5 billion, surpassing pre-pandemic highs and hitting a historical peak since the 2000 dot-com bubble; this week, the stock price slightly fell, giving up some gains, with the latest market cap dropping to $332.2 billion.After the sharp rise in share price, can this quarter's results meet the market’s high expectations and continue the momentum to reach new highs?👇👇 [Tongue]The following three key factors will directly determine the final outcome of this earnings report: ❖ Key Factor One: The supply and demand dynamics for server CPUs AI ...](https://nnqimage.futunn.com/sns_client_feed/999982/20260422/web-1776827214638-U8eFhyGRMQ.webp/big?area=2&is_public=true&imageMogr2/ignore-error/1/format/webp)
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