April 21 [Hong Kong Stock Podcast] Part-1 Hang Seng Index, Mixue Ice City, Baidu

1. Hang Seng Index: Bullish investors indicate that the index has surpassed 26,400 points, waiting for a breakout above 27,000 points; bull contracts held overnight with a stop-loss at 25,700 points. Some investors have chosen to exit with bear contracts, setting a stop-loss at 26,800 points. Other investors are preparing short positions, decisively purchasing bear contracts at 26,650 points with a stop-loss set at 27,300 points.

The Hang Seng Index has risen above 26,400 points, with the short-term trend continuing to stabilize. However, the current level is gradually approaching the upper Bollinger Band at 26,709.90 points, indicating that while the upward momentum remains, further upward movement is entering a resistance zone. The market's next focus will be on whether it can challenge the intraday high of 26,529.49 points and continue to approach the 27,000-point mark.

From the daily chart structure, the Hang Seng Index closed at 26,487.48 points on April 21, maintaining a position above the 5-day, 10-day, 60-day, and 120-day moving averages. The 5-day line is at 26,270.09 points, the 10-day line at 26,042.26 points, and the 60-day line at 26,152.48 points, reflecting that the short-term rebound structure remains intact. The middle Bollinger Band axis is at 25,511.99 points, with the current price significantly above the axis, and the upper band located at 26,709.90 points. This means the index has noticeably recovered from its previous low of 24,203.54 points, but upside potential is beginning to narrow. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen above 70, indicating strong short-term momentum while also reflecting that market conditions are starting to approach overbought levels.

For bullish investors mentioning that the index has already reached 26,400 points and are waiting for a breakout above 27,000 points while holding bull contracts with a recovery price of 25,700 points, the current trend indeed remains relatively strong as the index has rebounded above multiple moving averages, and the area near 25,700 points is also below the current price by some distance. However, since 26,487 points is already close to the upper Bollinger Band at 26,709.90 points, and the intraday high of 26,529.49 points hasn't officially broken through yet, what is more worth observing now is whether the index can first stabilize above the short-term support zone between 26,270 and 26,152 points before assessing if it can move higher. If the market fails to stabilize in this region, overnight positions should be mindful of pullback risks.

As for investors who have chosen to stop loss and exit bear contracts with a recovery price of 26,800 points, this decision appears reasonable from the chart perspective. The reason is that the index has risen above several short-term moving averages and closed near the higher end of the day's range. The overall rebound structure has not shown clear signs of weakening, and the distance between 26,800 points and the current price isn't significant. Under such conditions where short-term momentum remains strong, the pressure on holding short positions naturally increases.

Additionally, some investors mentioned preparing to deploy short positions at 26,650 points by buying bear contracts with a recovery price of 27,300 points. From a technical perspective, 26,650 points is indeed close to the upper Bollinger Band at 26,709.90 points, which represents resistance-level deployment. This approach is not without basis. However, the relative strength index (RSI) remains above 70, reflecting short-term buying pressure. If the index breaks above 26,529.49 points and continues to trade near or even break above the upper band, short positions will face increased pressure. Thus, such strategies require confirmation of resistance showing signs of pressure; otherwise, contrarian shorts may not offer particularly favorable risk-reward.

Overall, the Hang Seng Index remains in a short-term strong rebound pattern, stabilizing above multiple moving averages, with market sentiment improving compared to before. However, since the index is nearing the upper resistance at 26,709.90 points and the RSI is already at a relatively high level, if an effective breakout doesn't occur, the index could consolidate at higher levels. In the short term, look for resistance between 26,529.49 and 26,709.90 points above, while monitoring whether support holds around 26,270.09 and 26,152.48 points below, as this will determine the next key inflection point. $BI-HSI @EC2609A.C (23798.HK)$$UB#HSI RC2810A.C (56741.HK)$$SG#HSI RC2809R.C (56364.HK)$$BI-HSI @EC2608A.C (26493.HK)$

2. Mixue Group (02097.HK): Investors are asking if it will surge to $350?

Mixue Group has shown clear short-term strength, but if aiming directly for $350, it’s still necessary to first observe whether resistance near $320 can be effectively broken.

From the trend perspective, the stock closed at $309.20 on April 21, hitting a high of $320.00 and a low of $294.60 today, with a single-day increase of 5.60%, indicating clear short-term buying momentum. After rebounding from the low of $273.00, the stock has continued to rise, breaking above the 5-day moving average at $308.56 and the 10-day moving average at $286.90. The 20-day moving average at $296.52 still serves as a reference for short-term consolidation, while $320.00 represents immediate resistance. The middle line of the Bollinger Bands is at $296.52, and the current price has moved back above the midline, with the upper band near $334.80, indicating that the short-term trend has shifted from weak to strong. However, moving higher will gradually enter the resistance zone. The RSI has risen above 71, reflecting strong momentum, but also beginning to approach overbought levels.

Regarding investor concerns about reaching $350, there’s no direct technical confirmation at this stage. Although the stock has strengthened, it must first stabilize above $309 and further break through $320.00 before targeting the upper Bollinger Band at $334.80. Only if the price breaks above $334 will $350 become a more tangible target. Conversely, if resistance forms near $320, the stock is more likely to consolidate at high levels rather than immediately rush to $350. In the short term, the trend reflects strengthening, but $350 is not the immediate goal; whether $320 can be broken will be the next critical step.

3. Baidu (09888.HK): Some investors are waiting for a pullback to $120 while holding bear contracts with a recovery price of $142.

Baidu (09888.HK) has shown clear short-term strength, and there is no sign of a shift to a downtrend at this stage. If waiting for a pullback to $120, one must first observe whether resistance forms near the recent high of $124.80 and whether the short-term uptrend begins to cool off.

In terms of the trend, the stock price closed at 121.4 yuan on April 21, with a high of 125.80 yuan and a low of 123.10 yuan today. After continuous rebounds, it has broken through several short-term moving averages. The 5-day line is at 121.42 yuan, the 10-day line at 115.54 yuan, and the 20-day line at 112.65 yuan; the current price has stabilized above all these levels, reflecting continued improvement in short-term momentum. The middle band of the Bollinger Bands is at 112.65 yuan, with the upper band at 124.25 yuan, and the current price has risen above the upper band, indicating strong upward momentum, but also suggesting that the short-term trend is entering an overheated zone. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen above 78, showing significantly enhanced buying momentum. However, whether chasing higher or considering bearish positions at this level, one must be mindful that the rhythm may not be smooth.

Based on the current market situation, the stock price is in a strong rebound pattern, with no clear signs of weakness in the short term. Bearish positions should wait to see if resistance between 124.80 yuan and 125.80 yuan will truly take effect. If the market fails to break through and retreats from higher levels, bearish bets will have more justification; however, if the stock continues to stabilize above the short-term moving averages, bearish warrant strategies will face pressure from the ongoing uptrend.

Overall, Baidu Group-SW remains in a strengthening rebound trend. The short-term key lies in whether the resistance zone between 124.80 yuan and 125.80 yuan can be broken. Until clear pressure emerges, bearish positions will remain somewhat counter-trend. $JP#BAIDURC2606C.C (56934.HK)$$BPBAIDU@EC2606A.C (20451.HK)$$UB#BAIDURC2606B.C (54786.HK)$$MSBAIDU@EC2609A.C (27488.HK)$

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should combine other data and should not solely rely on this article to make trading decisions. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis.

$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$ $Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (800100.HK)$

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