April 20th [HK Stocks Podcast] Part-1 - Hang Seng Index, Meituan, Nongfu Spring,

1. Hang Seng Index: Investors who are optimistic about the market believe that bear warrants will continue to be targeted above 26,600-27,000 points tomorrow, and choose bull warrants overnight with a stop-loss level at 26,069 points. Some investors choose to enter bear warrants, with a stop-loss level at 26,518 points, expecting a pullback of 500 points.

The Hang Seng Index remains biased towards strength in the short term. After rebounding from the low of 24,203 points, the index has continued to rise and is now trading above multiple short-term moving averages, reflecting that buying momentum is still present. However, the current price of 26,361 points is approaching the resistance zone between 26,411 and 26,573 points. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 67.704, and the upper Bollinger Band is near 26,573 points, indicating that while the uptrend remains intact, the risk-reward ratio for entering new positions is narrowing, and short-term positioning should focus more on specific levels.

From a technical perspective, 26,147 points remains the short-term inflection point. As long as the index holds above this level and further breaks through 26,411 points, there is still an opportunity to test 26,573 points or even higher resistance zones. However, if it fails to break through and faces pressure in front of the resistance zone, the index may consolidate first. If it drops below 26,147 points, attention should be paid to testing support at 25,905 points, at which time the short-term rhythm would shift from a strong advance to a pullback for consolidation.

For investors who are bullish on the market outlook and have chosen to hold bull warrants overnight with a stop-loss level of 26,069 points, their current strategy aligns with the short-term upward bias. However, since the stop-loss level is close to the inflection point of 26,147 points, if the index experiences a pullback early tomorrow, the product's buffer zone would be relatively limited. Therefore, such positioning is more suitable for those expecting the index to maintain its strength and quickly break above 26,411 points; otherwise, they should be wary of potential pressure from high volatility.

As for the choice of bear certificates with a recovery price of 26,518 points, investors who believe there will be a 500-point pullback are currently making a preemptive judgment on a pullback before reaching the resistance zone. This view is not entirely unreasonable, as the index has indeed approached the resistance zone between 26,411 and 26,573 points, and the upper Bollinger Band is also nearby, technically implying the possibility of encountering resistance and consolidation. However, the overall trend has not yet weakened. If the index further breaks through 26,411 points and advances toward 26,573 points, the bear certificate strategy would become more passive. Therefore, this bearish strategy still represents a preemptive judgment before the resistance zone rather than a definitive trend reversal confirmation.

Overall, the Hang Seng Index's short-term direction remains strong but has entered near the resistance band. At this stage, it appears to be a resistance test within a strong trend rather than a low-risk area for another significant one-sided surge. The key for future performance still lies in whether it can stabilize above 26,147 points and effectively break through 26,411 points. A breakout could lead to further gains; otherwise, one must guard against consolidation at high levels or even short-term profit-taking. $BI#HSI RC2809I.C (55296.HK)$$UB#HSI RC2809F.C (54913.HK)$$JP-HSI @EC2608B.C (26361.HK)$

Meituan-W (03690.HK): Investors noted that both the Technology Index and Meituan lack trading volume, questioning whether Meituan will fall below 80 yuan. Some investors have opportunistically deployed bear certificates with a recovery price of 95 yuan.

Meituan is currently in the consolidation phase following a rebound. The stock price has gradually stabilized after rebounding from the low of 73.6 yuan, but it is merely hovering around multiple short-term moving averages without showing clear strength yet. The current price of 85.15 yuan is close to the middle axis of the Bollinger Bands at 84.485 yuan, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 46.714, indicating only average short-term momentum and insufficient market direction. Thus, the overall situation is still viewed as a sideways consolidation pattern.

From a technical perspective, 84.485 yuan remains the short-term watershed. As long as the stock price stabilizes above this level and further breaks through 86.260 yuan, there may be an opportunity to test 91.811 yuan in the short term, signaling a potential gradual shift from consolidation to strengthening. However, if it fails to break through 86.260 yuan, the overhead resistance will remain, naturally limiting the rebound space. If it falls below 84.485 yuan again, attention should be paid to whether the stock price retests the support at 82.25 yuan, which would indicate a renewed weakening trend.

Regarding investor concerns about the lack of trading volume in both the Technology Index and Meituan, and whether it will fall below 80 yuan, there is no direct technical indication at this stage that it must fall below 80 yuan, as the stock price is still above 84 yuan, and 82.25 yuan remains a closer support level. In other words, below 80 yuan is not the immediate focus now. Instead, attention should first be on whether 84.485 yuan can hold steady and whether 82.25 yuan might be breached. If even 82.25 yuan cannot be defended, the stock price will approach testing the 80-yuan mark.

As for investors deploying bear certificates opportunistically with a recovery price of 95 yuan, such a deployment is mainly based on the view that Meituan has not yet broken through resistance and remains in a sideways consolidation pattern. This approach has some technical basis, as the range between 86.260 yuan and 91.811 yuan is indeed still a resistance zone, and short-term momentum has not shown any obvious strengthening. However, it’s important to note that the stock price has not clearly weakened; it simply hasn’t strengthened yet. Therefore, the bear certificate strategy is currently a slightly bearish view within the range, not a strong downtrend. If the stock price later stabilizes above 84.485 yuan and breaks through 86.260 yuan, the bearish position will start to come under pressure.

Overall, what matters most for Meituan now is not looking too far ahead, but focusing on the 84.485 yuan watershed. If it holds, there is still a chance to challenge 86.260 yuan upward. Breaking above would open up the possibility of testing 91.811 yuan. If it fails to hold, attention should be on a retest of 82.25 yuan, at which point the market will more seriously reassess whether the 80-yuan level faces downside risk. $BIMTUAN@EC2608B.C (25814.HK)$$UB#MTUANRC2701A.C (60462.HK)$$UBMTUAN@EC2608B.C (26081.HK)$$JP#MTUANRC2609G.C (63797.HK)$

Nongfu Spring (09633.HK): Investors asked whether the stock, having stabilized above the low of 46.46 yuan, will reverse and rebound sharply to break through 50-55 yuan.

Nongfu Spring does show signs of a short-term rebound, but it has not yet fully formed a V-shaped reversal, nor is it at the stage where one can directly target 55 yuan.

From the trend perspective, the stock price previously hit a low of 46.46 yuan but has since rebounded above several short-term moving averages. On April 20, it closed at 48.70 yuan. The 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages have gradually converged and are trending upward, reflecting an improvement in short-term sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also recovered to a stronger zone, indicating better capital momentum than before. However, the stock price is now approaching overhead resistance, particularly around the psychologically significant 50-yuan level, with the upper Bollinger Band located near 50.20 yuan, suggesting that upward pressure will begin to increase significantly if the price attempts to push higher.

For investors asking whether the stock will reverse and rebound as long as it holds steady above the 46.46-yuan low, potentially even breaking through to 50 or 55 yuan, the answer is: Holding above 46.46 yuan does indicate initial support forming at this low, which could extend the rebound structure. However, technically speaking, the first focus should not be on 55 yuan but rather on whether the price can stabilize above 48 yuan and further break through the resistance zone between 49.30 yuan and 50-50.20 yuan. If this level is not effectively breached, the move would still be considered a rebound recovery and not a completed V-shaped reversal.

Therefore, a more reasonable view at this stage is that as long as the 46.46-yuan level holds, the rebound trajectory can remain intact, and the immediate focus should be on whether the price can break through the 50-yuan mark. If the price can stabilize above 50 yuan, the trend may have room for further improvement. As for 55 yuan, it remains a longer-term target, and discussing it at this point would be premature.

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should combine other data and should not solely rely on this article to make trading decisions. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis.

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