Xiaomi Group has reclaimed the key level of 31.30 yuan. Has the short-term rebound begun?

$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ The current price is 31.48 yuan, and the trend is still in a weak consolidation at lower levels within a downtrend. Although the stock price is close to the low zone and may seem to have some defensive support on the surface, there are no clear technical signals indicating a reversal to strength yet. Therefore, this is not an ideal position to bet on a rebound at this stage. The most important factor in the short term is not how much the market imagines regarding buybacks, capital inflows, or news flow, but whether the 31.30 yuan level can be retaken, as this is the first hurdle for the trend to shift from weak to stable.

Structurally speaking, Xiaomi is still in a downward channel. The immediate support level is at 30.20 yuan, with the next level at 29.50 yuan; while the resistance above is initially at 31.30 yuan, followed by 32.30 yuan. In other words, although the current price is close to the support zone, there is no confirmation of a bottom yet, and the resistance above is relatively near, so the upside potential remains low. If the stock price only rebounds to around 31.30 yuan before facing resistance again, it will maintain the typical behavior of a weak stock. Only when the price firmly stabilizes above 31.30 yuan would it make sense to reconsider the possibility of a rise to 32.30 yuan in the short term.

For the more optimistic voices, such as @@28838898 who believes that there is daily capital inflow and expects a surge, @Don't_be_pessimistic hopes for a V-shaped recovery, @@winter351 feels that it is starting to take off, @@中芯熊熊 even directly sees 40 yuan; these opinions reflect that the market still has high expectations for Xiaomi Group. However, from a short-term chart perspective, such expectations have not yet been confirmed by price action. The stock price isn’t completely lacking rebound potential—it just hasn’t reached a stage where “taking off” would be an accurate description. Before reclaiming 31.30 yuan, any rise is closer to a weak rebound or range-bound fluctuation rather than a clear upward trend.

@@Winmorer mentioned observing for a long time and believes that at this level, the probability of an increase is greater than a decline. This kind of judgment is common in low-price zones because many investors feel that it has fallen enough. However, technically, being at a low doesn’t automatically mean there’s good value for betting. The key lies in whether there are signs of stabilization. Without confirmation of strength, stocks at lows can continue to linger or even test lower supports, so relying solely on “having fallen a lot” isn’t sufficient as an ideal entry reason.

As for discussions related to buybacks, @63863451 mentioned that the share price is oscillating within a range, which presents opportunities for arbitrage through buybacks, while @21793470 believes relying on buybacks for support is like trying to put out a fire with a cup of water. @@Yohole feels the buyback enthusiasm is fleeting, and @17113901 even asked if today’s buyback quota had already been exhausted. These voices collectively point to one core issue: Buybacks can slow down declines but may not be sufficient to reverse a downtrend directly. For short-term trading, instead of debating the effectiveness of buybacks, it's better to observe whether the price stabilizes above key levels due to them. Currently, the answer remains insufficient, as 31.30 yuan has not been reclaimed, indicating the market isn’t ready to push the price out of its weak zone.

@LastMinuteEntry mentioned rising memory costs and falling gross margins, predicting Xiaomi will fall below 30 yuan; @12051586 pointed out that although mobile growth has improved, major shareholder selling risk remains significant. These fundamental concerns explain why, despite nearing lows, the stock hasn’t seen strong buying interest. When the market harbors reservations about earnings quality, shareholder behavior, or cost pressures, technically, a decisive rebound becomes harder to materialize.

@MrWu asked when 33 yuan could return home—this is the most direct question for many trapped investors. From the current chart, 33 yuan isn’t yet a short-term priority since the stock hasn’t reclaimed 31.30 yuan and 32.30 yuan. If the immediate resistance levels cannot hold effectively, 33 yuan naturally remains distant. Therefore, the more practical approach now isn’t asking when we’ll return home but seeing if the stock can stabilize and gradually reclaim nearby resistances.

@QinBridge asked if today’s low short interest in Xiaomi means preparation for a rise; @231648440 feels a sudden spike might indicate good news; @CuriousBrandValue wants to know how high it could go if it surges. These questions reflect that the market is still searching for a catalyst. However, the short-term chart tells us that unless the catalyst translates into a price breakout, it won’t change the structure. The most practical technical response now remains: first see if 31.30 yuan can stabilize, then check if 32.30 yuan can be reclaimed, after which higher targets become worth considering.

There are also quite a few pessimistic comments. @63863451 believes that tomorrow it will drop further, @26431796 says there is no pressure on the short side, @Rasscl asks for an explanation, @Conviction_Holdings feels like they are at the lowest point, and @CherryZH says it will be over in three minutes. These all reflect the most exhausting aspect of weak stocks: it’s not the sharp declines but the fact that while the stock doesn’t fall much, it also doesn’t bounce back, slowly eroding market confidence. This is why at this stage, the mindset should be to sell during rebounds or stay on the sidelines, rather than prematurely treating it as a reversal stock.

Overall, Xiaomi Group remains a typical weak stock in terms of performance with low short-term investment appeal. Currently, there are three clearer strategic directions. First, if the price rebounds and faces resistance near 31.30 yuan, the primary strategy should still be to sell on the rebound, targeting a return to 30.20 yuan to 29.50 yuan. Second, if the stock price directly breaks below 30.20 yuan, it can be considered a continuation of weakness, potentially testing 29.50 yuan. Third, only when the stock price stabilizes above 31.30 yuan again would it be more suitable to consider going long in the short term, with the target potentially rising back to 32.30 yuan. Until then, this stock does not present an ideal opportunity for a rebound play.

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Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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