Pop Mart (09992) has entered the initial stage of a technical rebound after a sharp decline; the weak trend remains as long as it does not break above 168.70 yuan. For now, treat it as a short-term rebound stock.

$POP MART (09992.HK)$The upward momentum continued today, with the latest price at 168.7 yuan, fluctuating between 164.4 and 169 yuan. Pop Mart is in the early stage of a technical rebound following a sharp drop from its highs. Previously, the share price quickly retreated from its peak to near 140 yuan before showing a noticeable rebound, indicating some buying support at lower levels. However, this round of recovery is not yet sufficient to be defined as a renewed strengthening. The most important factor now is not how optimistic the market is about the brand, popularity, or long-term story, but whether the key resistance level of 168.70 yuan can be decisively broken. Until then, the overall structure remains a repair within a weak trend.

Technically, Pop Mart’s current rebound is not without strength, but the issue is that the rebound has not yet reclaimed key moving averages and resistance zones. Immediate support is seen at 158 yuan, followed by 152.70 yuan; resistance is first eyed at 168.70 yuan, followed by 175 yuan. In other words, the current price is in the upper-middle range of the rebound zone—there is still room for upward movement, but the pressure is also evident. Therefore, the short-term risk-reward ratio is relatively low. If the share price only bounces to around 168.70 yuan before encountering resistance again, the overall situation will remain in a rhythm of selling on rebounds, rather than the official start of a new upward wave.

As for the relatively optimistic voices, @@魚魚長腿小公主Regarding more optimistic voices, some believe the stock should first establish a base before targeting 200 yuan. @Haha Kitty thinks it’s worth 300 yuan, while @Waiting Art even predicts 180 yuan for tomorrow. These views reflect the market's strong confidence in Pop Mart’s brand power and long-term potential. However, short-term trading cannot jump directly from 163 yuan to targets like 180 yuan, 200 yuan, or even 300 yuan. The immediate task for the share price is to deal with two key resistances: 168.70 yuan and 175 yuan. If it fails to break through the first barrier, setting overly ambitious targets too early may disrupt trading discipline.

@@Jimibaby@GS Golden Treasure, @233498690 These types of comments leaning toward an immediate bullish outlook reflect the market's anticipation for a short-term rebound. This expectation is not entirely baseless as stock prices have indeed rebounded from sharp declines. However, the issue lies in the fact that the current upward trend resembles more of a recovery rather than a completed trend reversal. In other words, there may be room for a rebound, but it doesn't mean it should be handled with a strong stock mentality.

In terms of market structure, @34859882 mentioned the trading range between 150 and 165 and the impact of capital structure on price movements, which is actually quite close to the current market situation. Because when a stock rebounds after a sharp drop, the most common state in the market is that long and short funds repeatedly duel within a certain range. @32298170 believes that if a price level stays too long, it will lose its supporting power, which is also worth noting. Because if the area around 158 yuan repeatedly fails to hold, support will indeed gradually erode, and at that time, it will easily retreat back to 152.70 yuan.

As for the bearish views, @Super Big Buyer feels that it’s still weak and can’t be pushed up; @HelmetFace thinks it’s just holding at 150, even directly calling it a false rally; @T Trader considers everything above 150 yuan as a distribution zone; @cyberdyne suspects that major players are distributing shares. These concerns are not entirely unfounded because, technically speaking, Pop Mart has not yet broken free from its downward structure, and if the rebound fails to break through 168.70 yuan, it could easily turn into profit-taking at higher levels again. Therefore, at this stage, the safer approach is still to treat it as a rebound rather than assuming that a bottom has been reached and that a recovery is underway.

@231874206 mentioned they are almost breaking even, while @17627678 regrets not exiting at 168 yuan. @Source915 suggests taking profits now and waiting for a lower entry point. @NurseryBrother simply advises taking profits while you can. These comments truly reflect the typical mindset after a sharp decline followed by a rebound. When the stock price bounces back from a low, many investors think first about whether they should reduce their positions or take some profits during the rebound, rather than chasing higher. This mentality itself creates resistance during the rebound, making the 168.70 yuan level particularly important.

In terms of fundamentals and long-term narratives, @@股神不惑, @VeryTraderCS, @231692581, @GaoQi6, @@港股令我破產 tend to be optimistic about the company from perspectives such as consumer demographics, brand longevity, and holdings of well-known investors. These factors can indeed support long-term valuation expectations. @peggy2013 even mentions using options as insurance and remains optimistic in the long run, while @MystiqueFish discusses selling Put strategies. All these indicate that the market's long-term view on Pop Mart and its short-term chart status are two different things. The long term can be optimistic, but if the short term is still in the repair phase after a sharp decline, the price may fluctuate before determining its next direction.

On the other hand, @@233219507 mentions declining live streaming viewership and weakening fundamentals, representing another concern: the story may be good, but can the data still support high valuations? This is why Pop Mart’s short-term movements are particularly volatile. The bulls see brand and emotional value, while the bears see valuation pressures and incomplete reversals. @PowerAmbiguity says they don’t understand the movement, which accurately reflects the current sentiment — the stock price isn’t purely strong or weak but is in the intermediate phase of repair after a sharp decline without full confirmation.

Overall, Pop Mart is still in the early stages of recovery following a sharp decline and does not yet possess full bullish conditions. There are three clearer short-term strategies. First, if the stock price rebounds to around 168.70 yuan and encounters resistance, it is advisable to primarily consider selling on the rebound, targeting a move back to 158 yuan to 152.70 yuan. Second, if the stock price can break through 168.70 yuan and stabilize, it indicates that the rebound may escalate, with a target looking towards 175 yuan. Third, if the stock price falls and stabilizes near 152.70 yuan, a more aggressive technical rebound strategy can be deployed, aiming first for a move above 163 yuan. Before that, one should not be overly optimistic about this round of rebound in the short term.

As long as 168.70 yuan is not broken through, it still belongs to a rebound after a sharp fall; in the short term, it should be treated as a rebound, and excessive optimism should be avoided.

Strategy One | Sell on Rebound

$UBPOMRT@EP2607B.P (23059.HK)$ | Strike Price 169.892 yuan | Actual Leverage 3.4x | Close to rebound resistance zone, suitable for going short if rebound stalls $DSPOMRT@EP2607A.P (25110.HK)$ | Strike Price 169.9 yuan | Actual Leverage 3.1x | More stable terms, suitable for phased defense during rebounds

$MBPOMRT@EP2608A.P (22126.HK)$ | Strike Price 169.992 yuan | Actual Leverage 2.9x | Lower leverage, suitable for more conservative short positioning

Strategy Two | Breakout and Strengthen (Observation)

$UBPOMRT@EC2711A.C (27929.HK)$ | Strike Price 180.1 yuan | Actual Leverage 1.7x | Suitable for more conservative trend-following deployment after breaking through 168.70 yuan $CIPOMRT@EC2711A.C (27955.HK)$ | Strike Price 180.1 yuan | Actual Leverage 1.7x | Similar terms, suitable for follow-up after confirming strengthening$CTPOMRT@EC2609D.C (28018.HK)$ | Strike Price 186.78 yuan | Actual Leverage 4.2x | Higher leverage, suitable for capturing extended moves after breakout

Strategy Three | Retest for Rebound (Aggressive)

$UBPOMRT@EC2609C.C (27773.HK)$ ｜Strike Price 186.88 yuan｜Actual Leverage 4.0x｜Suitable for technical rebound after retracement stabilizes near 152.70 yuan

$HSPOMRT@EC2609B.C (27794.HK)$ ｜Strike Price 189.92 yuan｜Actual Leverage 4.3x｜Balanced terms, suitable for rebound toward above 163 yuan $HUPOMRT@EC2609B.C (28008.HK)$ ｜Strike Price 190.02 yuan｜Actual Leverage 4.5x｜Higher leverage, suitable for aggressive rebound positioning

Feel free to share your insights in the comment section. For more market analysis, please continue following ‘Hong Kong Stock Warrants Jenny’ for daily updates!

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

#HongKongStocks #RealTimeAnalysis #WarrantsSelection #WarrantsStrategy #DerivativesHedging #HongKongWarrantsJenny #PopMart #09992 #NewConsumptionStocks$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$

44K Views