Pop Mart rises for two consecutive days: Is this a recovery rally or the resumption of an uptrend?

$POP MART (09992.HK)$ Currently trading at $165.5, up 2.54%. The stock had previously fallen continuously from a high of $274.20 and only found significant support after dropping to $140.10. Recently, it has started to stabilize gradually in the lower price range. The recent rebound has been strong, indicating a short-term improvement in sentiment, but overall, the technical positioning still suggests viewing this as a corrective bounce after a sharp drop rather than a full resumption of a medium-term uptrend.

From the perspective of the moving average system, although Pop Mart has rebounded from its lows, the overall trend has not yet fully escaped the medium-term weakness. Although the current price is back above the 5-day line at $153.82 and the 10-day line at $149.81, it remains constrained by the 20-day line at $175.49, the 30-day line at $187.33, the 60-day line at $206.45, and the 120-day line at $210.22, reflecting that this is merely a transition from a sharp decline to a corrective phase, and there is still some way to go before truly reversing the medium-term weakness. In the short term, the most important factor is whether the price can hold steady in the $153 to $155 region; if it can stabilize here, the rebound will have the potential to extend further. Initial resistance lies around $164.40, with further resistance near $175.50 because this area is close to the 20-day line, making it an important short-term inflection point for the rebound.

Regarding the Bollinger Bands, the middle band is at $175.49, the upper band is at $235.91, and the lower band is at $115.06. The current price of $161.40, while showing a clear rebound from the lows, has still not returned above the middle band, indicating that the overall trend is still within a weak recovery zone rather than a full strengthening phase. On the positive side, the price has clearly moved away from the lower band, signaling that the most panic-driven sell-off phase has temporarily ended. However, if it fails to regain levels above $175, this movement should be seen as a post-decline correction. In simple terms, the most crucial observation now is not whether the stock price rebounds, but whether the rebound can push from around $160 to $164.40 or even gradually approach $175.50.

In terms of momentum, the RSI is approximately 54.3, having recovered from a weaker zone to a neutral-to-strong level, reflecting that short-term momentum has indeed improved but has not yet entered a very strong zone. Regarding volume, there was noticeable expansion during the sharp decline, and today's rebound is also accompanied by active trading, indicating that capital is starting to re-engage in short-term recovery. However, continuous volume breakthroughs have not yet been observed, suggesting that the market is primarily betting on a rebound following an oversold condition rather than a complete restoration of a one-sided upward trend. Therefore, while the trend has improved, it is not yet at a stage where risk concerns can be fully relaxed.

Market commentary also strongly reflects the current divergence.@华尔街卡尔As for how high a short squeeze can go, @万事如意金牛 directly pointed out there are many shorts, which indeed has some basis now because once a significant rebound occurs after a sharp drop in stock price, it is most likely to attract market discussions about whether it's entering a short squeeze phase. @穿插的不死鸟 considered the previous day’s trading volume to be relatively large and is observing if there will be new highs tomorrow, an approach that closely aligns with technical analysis, as further breaking above the previous day's high of 164.40 yuan is crucial if the rebound is to continue; otherwise, it could easily turn into a high-level tug-of-war.

However, the market also has many cautious or even bearish voices. @升上高风 worries whether it might fall back to 150 yuan tomorrow, @好烦哟 believes another batch might get trapped above 160 yuan, making the next couple of days not optimistic, and @三大佳丽 directly stated that highs are on the left, life and death uncertain, better run first. These opinions reflect that everyone still has reservations about the sustainability of the rebound. Such caution is understandable since Pop Mart is still below multiple mid-term moving averages like the 20-day line, meaning its mid-term weakness hasn’t completely reversed.

Another focal point is centered on discussions related to Duan Yongping. @@free-sold leek、@@BBQ888888, @Calm Outsider, @@今朝醉卧又明朝, @San Shi Fen Mian, @Wen Wen De Jian Qian Lang, @@9-5@冷静的圈外人, @三石分面, @稳稳的捡钱狼, @珍股神医医生, @Cai010313 — these comments all revolve around one thing: whether the market is over-interpreting certain actions or statements as strong bullish signals. Technically speaking, these discussions will certainly influence short-term sentiment, but what’s more practical is whether prices can truly stabilize. In other words, regardless of how the market interprets the moves of relevant individuals, everything ultimately comes down to the price action itself: Can it hold above 153-155 yuan? Can it break through 164.40 yuan? And then challenge 175.50 yuan? These key price levels matter more than any single market rumor.

From a trading strategy perspective, Pop Mart is currently priced at 166.5 yuan. The short-term target is set at 175.50 yuan, with a stop-loss around 153.00 yuan. The expected profit margin is approximately 8.74%, while the risk margin is about 5.20%, giving a reward-to-risk ratio of roughly 1.68. This indicates there is operational room in the short term, and the numbers remain somewhat attractive. However, this kind of deployment is more suitable for a rebound recovery mindset rather than assuming a complete trend reversal. A more conservative approach would be to wait for the stock price to retrace and stabilize near 153-155 yuan before considering entry, or to follow only after a confirmed breakout above 164.40 yuan with supportive trading volumes. If 153 yuan is breached, beware that this round of rebound may end, and the stock could test support near 140 yuan again.

In summary, Pop Mart is currently in a rebound recovery pattern following a sharp decline, with short-term sentiment showing noticeable improvement but the overall structure yet to fully strengthen. The range of 153-155 yuan serves as a short-term defensive zone, and as long as it holds, the rebound is likely to continue. The immediate resistance level to watch is 164.40 yuan, while 175.50 yuan represents a critical rebound threshold. Until 175.50 yuan is reclaimed, the current stage should still be viewed as a recovery, not prematurely assumed to signal a full trend reversal.

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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